What Will Your Mortgage Look Like in Retirement?

Anyone who has gone through the process of mapping out their retirement knows there can be a lot to keep in mind. Saving, investing, anticipating medical costs, and making sure you have enough tucked away for years to come is just the start. One question many people overlook is: “Should I pay off my mortgage before I retire?” The answer is more complicated than you may think.

Maintaining a Mortgage in Retirement

Imagine you have $300,000 set aside to pay off your mortgage. But rather than using those funds to pay off your mortgage, you instead invest that money. Sure it’s tempting to stop making a monthly payment, but what if that $300,000 earned a hypothetical 6% for the next five years. You would have a little more than $400,000. Yes, your house may appreciate in value over the same period of time, but you should consider all your choices for that lump-sum of money.

Eradicate (Other) Debt

Before you pay down your mortgage, any extra cash might be better suited to paying off other kinds of debt that carry higher interest rates, especially non-deductible debt, such as credit card balances.

Make Your Mortgage Work

Many homeowners benefit from a mortgage interest deduction on their taxes. Here’s how it works: the amount you pay in mortgage interest is deducted from your gross income, which reduces your federal income tax burden. But remember, the further along you are toward paying off your mortgage, the less interest you’re paying. If you’re unsure if you’ll be able to take advantage of this mortgage benefit, it’s best to consult your financial professional.

Retire Your Mortgage

Your monthly mortgage payment may be a large part of your available capital, especially in retirement. Eliminating unnecessary subsidies can significantly reduce the amount of cash you need to meet monthly expenses.

Uninteresting Interest

Depending on the length of your mortgage term and the size of your debt, you may be paying a substantial amount in interest. Paying off your mortgage early can free up money for other uses. True, you may lose the mortgage interest tax deduction, but remember as you get closer to paying off your loan: more of each monthly payment goes to principal and less to interest. In other words, the amount you can deduct from taxes decreases.

Home Is Where the Heart Is

There’s a value to your home beyond money. It’s where you raised your children, made fond memories, and you may want it to remain in the family. Paying off the mortgage may help make your home part of your legacy. After all, some things you just can’t put a price on.

 

 

Source: Lake Avenue Financial

Are You Really Ready to Sell Your Home?

Listing just to see what happens may seem like a good idea, but putting a home on the market too soon can backfire in a big way.

Selling a home does not happen overnight. Typical sellers reach out to a real estate agent or start researching their home’s value online many months — sometimes even years — before they are ready to put the “For Sale” sign in their yard.

Often, a home sale is the result of some life event: a marriage, divorce, death in the family, retirement or another child. It’s typically hard to “time” these events; therefore, it’s not easy to time a real estate transaction. Here are some points a potential home seller should consider before deciding to list their home.

If you’re not certain, you’re not ready

If you don’t have a new home to move into or a plan once you sell your home, it’s not a good time to list your home for sale. Sellers without a real and concrete plan are not serious sellers, but only opportunistic.

A seller without a plan will likely be “testing” the market, and that translates into overpricing the home. If the seller overprices the home, it’s not going to do her any good. The market is smart, and rarely will a knowledgeable and active buyer overpay for a home.

Ask yourself, “If I get an offer and sign a contract for a 45-day close, do I know what I will do?” If the answer is no, you should simply not list, or you will do yourself more harm than good in the long run.

Once you list, the clock starts ticking

Today, with access to so much information online, buyers will know the good, bad and ugly when it comes to listing history and data.

If you list your home at too high a price or in poor condition, you risk sitting on the market, without offers and likely without any showings or potential buyers.

That lack of interest will follow you. Once you’re ready to sell your home at the right price or in the right condition, every buyer will know your history. They’ll see the series of price reductions, the old photos, or the previous listing when you were not ready to sell.

All of the old listing activity sends a message to buyers that there is something wrong with the home or with you. Buyers will hold back on such a stigmatized home, and instead focus on a newer listing that is priced right and shows well.

You can plan for the market, not time the market

If you know that your third child is on the way, or that your new job is too far from your current home, you’ll have the luxury of not being under the gun. This allows you to take advantage of market conditions, as opposed to timing the market.

Knowing that you will list the home in the spring or the fall or in February will enable a smart seller to prep the home, make the necessary improvements and get the property market-ready.

Working with a good local real estate agent, you should watch the inventory come and go, see the competition and get the word out at the right time. If a comparable home gets three offers in less than a week, then you know two other buyers are out there. Being ready to go, you can then capitalize on the market conditions.

Real estate transactions happen all year long

Some of the most successful sales happen in the dead of winter when inventory is low, but buyers are still out. Have a sales plan months in advance. Never list your home before you (or the home) are ready.

Many homeowners are emotionally attached to their homes, but listing it at a high price or not making the necessary improvements sabotages their ability to sell it. If you find yourself struggling with the process, don’t list your home yet. Take a step back and wait. The right time will come, and waiting will ensure that you get the most from your investment.

 

 

Written By: Brendon DeSimone
Source: Zillow

The Truth About Present-Day Retirement

Times have changed and so has retirement! Nowadays, retirement is no longer what people once expected. If you’re preparing to retire, the way your parents did, you might be stuck in the past and need to face present-day reality. So, what has changed in the last 10 years? Well, the factors below will shift your perspective about how you should be preparing for retirement!

First, with all the advancements of medicine and technology that we’ve had in this last decade, it’s no surprise that people are living longer. In the past, living 30 years after retirement, was actually outside the norm of an adult’s lifespan. Therefore, the 4% safe withdrawal rate that many financial planners followed was a valid rule of thumb. This guideline told retirees that if they took out only 4% of their assets and adjusted to inflation in their retirement portfolio, the risk of running out of money 30 years after they retired was very low.

But it’s no longer the case! If you’re saving conservatively for an amount that would last you around 30 years, disregard the 4% rule. People are now living past the age of 95 and a good amount of them are even retiring early. The average portfolio return for the standard investor has also decreased and is subject to more risk from the impacts of market volatility. The chances of outliving your nest egg is a lot higher these days.

Not only are people starting to live longer, the divorce rate is also significantly higher. You can no longer assume that you’ll still be married once you retire! How is that an issue, you ask? Well, a divorce could be a serious stumbling block for your retirement plan since your income might be cut in half during your golden years. Not to mention, your retirement assets might be split among you and your ex-spouse. Because of a divorce, you’ll most likely have to change your retirement strategy and lifestyle.

Have you noticed that everything costs a lot more than it used to? Some of this increase can be a result of natural inflation in prices. But, according to our government, inflation is very tame and under control. Yet, the cost of everyday goods is a lot higher and will keep outpacing inflation throughout your retirement. And it is not just everyday expenses that you’ll need to factor into your budget, there’s the added healthcare costs as well. Given the fact that there’s a good chance you’ll live longer, there are more medical issues you’ll be susceptible to. Not to mention the fact that your chances of getting injured or breaking something will dramatically increase. This means a lot more medical bills and trips to the doctor’s office! On top of that, the fact that a third of us will require some sort of assistance or nursing care, and you can see how retirement costs can skyrocket! Basically, retirement is not as cheap as it used to be.

Finally, if you think about your assets, it’s safe to assume that your home is your most valuable one. You may be able to sell it at a profit, assuming that the value has increased over the years. However, that might be a misconception! In order to determine whether or not you’ll actually get a return on your investment, you’ll need to adjust for inflation and taxes. Also, if we experience any major volatility in the housing market like we did in the past, you might not be able to get as much money for your property as you expected. Like all markets, the real estate market can be unpredictable.

So, with all of these changes, how can one successfully save for retirement? Well, my biggest recommendation for every pre-retiree that I talk to is, BE PREPARED! It’s always better to set your retirement savings goal beyond your expected amount, than below it. With the unpredictability of divorce, age, and the financial markets, it’s better to be safe than sorry. If you aim higher and save more, then your risk of running out of money during retirement will be a lot lower. Part of being prepared is to work closely with a financial planner that can guide your through your Golden Years. This ‘financial coach’ should be able to point out pitfalls that you might not have even thought of. It’s their job to make sure that you’re on track and don’t fall victim to your own wrongdoings. As well as to create a retirement game plan and an investment road-map that takes taxes and your risk tolerance into consideration.

Being prepared for retirement can be a daunting task. Especially given all the unknowns out there. But with proper preparation and guidance from a financial professional, you can glide into retirement knowing full well that you’re ready for the challenge!

Market Update: May 1, 2017

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  • Stocks head higher to begin week. U.S. stocks are modestly higher in early trading, following news that Congress reached an agreement late Sunday to fund the government through September 30; pending approval by Friday, the deal will avoid a government shutdown. The major averages all closed lower on Friday, though the S&P 500 still managed a 1.5% gain for the week. Earnings dominated last week’s headlines, as the S&P’s advance was led by more than 2% weekly gains in the technology, healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors. Overnight, nearly all major markets in Asia and Europe were closed for holidays; Japan’s Nikkei was the exception, closing up 0.6% after Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) data came in near expectations. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is up slightly to 2.30%, COMEX gold ($12669/oz.) is flat, and WTI crude oil is dropping more than 1% to below $49/barrel.

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  • Another busy week of earnings on tap. A very strong earnings season continues this week with 127 more S&P 500 companies slated to report results. With about two-thirds of companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter of 2017 are now tracking to a 13.6% year-over-year increase, well above the 10.2% increase reflected in consensus estimates as of April 1. The upside surprise has been about more than just easy comparisons in energy, with broad-based strength across several key sectors, including financials, healthcare, industrials, and technology. The 77% earnings beat rate thus far, should it hold, would be the best since 2010.

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  • Company guidance has been more upbeat than usual. Forward estimates for the S&P 500 have only fallen 0.2% since earnings season begin, reflecting generally optimistic guidance from corporate America (average earnings season declines are 2-3%). We see little potential for policy upside in calendar 2017 (though there is a fair amount in 2018), suggesting most of the resilience in earnings estimates reflects recent firming in the business environment.
  • Employment report highlights a busy week. The first week of the month always includes some key economic data, highlighted by Friday’s Employment Situation report. Usually, any Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting would be the week’s highlight, but this week’s meeting, concluding Wednesday, will not receive as much attention, with expectations near zero for a rate hike and no new projections accompanying the release of the policy statement. We’ll also get a read on U.S. business activity, with April manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management released on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Internationally, we’ll get March Eurozone unemployment on Tuesday, Eurozone first quarter 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) on Wednesday, and preliminary Eurozone PMI data on Thursday.
  • Congress reaches deal to fund the government. As expected, after an initial one-week extension, House and Senate negotiators reached a deal to fund the government through September. A vote is expected later this week, possibly as early as Wednesday. Although few saw material risk of a shutdown, clearing this hurdle does help pave the way for other initiatives. Tax reform is the top priority but Republican policymakers continue to try to craft an agreement to repeal and replace ObamaCare, where the path to compromise remains extremely difficult.
  • Almost all markets in Europe and Asia are closed today for the May 1 holiday. Japan is the major exception to the general state. One data point was released, Chinese manufacturing PMI was 51.2, lower than the March figure of 51.8 and also lower than expectations. Lower prices for commodities is largely the culprit, not a drop in demand. Still, it does highlight the sensitivity of the Chinese economy to “Old Industrial China.” After generally good economic reports in Q1 2017, the Chinese government has announced a series of crackdowns on excessive leverage in the real estate and financial markets.
  • Reflecting on Nasdaq 6000. The Nasdaq Composite hit 6000 last week, more than 17 years (or 6250-plus days) after first reaching 5000 back in March of 2000. During the dotcom boom in the late 1990s, moves from 3000 to 4000 and 4000 to 5000 were quick at 56 and 71 days, before the long and winding road to 6000 over the course of nearly two decades. Although this milestone has sparked more bubble talk in the media, we believe stocks are far from bubble territory, and the Nasdaq stands on a much stronger foundation today than it did in the days leading up to the dotcom crash.
  • Welcome to May. May is a busy month with multiple events that could move global markets. From the Fed meeting, to Presidential election in France, to the kickoff of what has historically been the worst six months of the year for equities; this is a big month.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Personal Consumption Expediture Core & Deflator (Mar)
  • ISM Mfg. PMI (Apr)
  • BOJ: Minutes of March 15-16 Meeting
  • China: Caixin Mfg. PMI (Apr)

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Wednesday

  • ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (Apr)
  • FOMC Rate Decision (May 3)
  • Eurozone: GDP (Q1)

Thursday

  • Eurozone: Markit PMI (Apr)
  • Eurozone: Retail Sales (Mar)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (Apr)
  • Unemployment Rate (Apr)
  • Labor Force Participation & Underemployment Rates (Apr)

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Here’s Why Tony Robbins Tells Millennials to Buy a House, Not a Home

© Credit.com Blog

For generations past, home ownership was a significant rite of passage that signaled stability, commitment, and, often, prosperity.

But, in this as in so many other cases, millennials are different.

As of 2015, adults under age 35 made up 19 percent of U.S. households but less than 10 percent of homeowners, according to a report released by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In fact, in 2015 home ownership for that group fell to a historic low of 31 percent.

Entrepreneur and bestselling author Tony Robbins says that, while millennials might be missing out on the social upsides of home ownership, real estate is not the best investment they could be making

104353097-tony_robbins_painting.600x400

“One of the weakest performers [is] your own personal real estate, because it doesn’t provide much income,” Robbins says. “It’s an inflation hedge. You do a little better than inflation, and you can have your own home, so there’s a psychological, emotional benefit.”

Instead, millennials in a position to buy property should be considering how to do so in a way that will provide them additional cash flow, he says.

“If you can own real estate, real estate with an income is the one [form of] real estate that’s more valuable,” says Robbins.

104362668-home_owner.600x400.jpg

Opinions on the imperative of millennial home ownership vary.

Self-made millionaire Grant Cardone tells CNBC that home owners are forced to continue to spend unceasingly, and that he regrets buying a house at age 30.

“Unless you have 20 million bucks in the bank, in cash, you have no business buying a house,” says Cardone.

In personal finance classic “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” author Robert Kiyosaki notes that houses should be viewed as a liability, as opposed to an asset, and points out that it’s not a given that a home will appreciate in value.

“I am not saying don’t buy a house. What I am saying is that you should understand the difference between an asset and a liability,” Kiyosaki writes. “When I want a bigger house, I first buy assets that will generate the cash flow to pay for the house.”

Robbins emphasizes that real estate investing doesn’t need to entail keys and a welcome mat.

“You can [invest] through a REIT. You don’t have to buy everything, you get a piece of all these things,” Robbins says.

But whether millennials choose to spend their nest egg on a nest, or begin focusing on a portfolio instead, Robbins says the worst mistake is making no investment at all: “The most important thing, I think, for millennials, is to get in the game.”

 

 

Written By: Kathryn Dill
Source: CNBC

 

Market Update: April 3, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks search for direction to begin Q2. After closing out a solid first quarter amidst Brexit and Trump-trade uncertainties, equities are modestly lower in early trading. Friday’s session saw the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and the Dow (-0.3%) finish in the red, ending the quarter without enthusiasm despite an overall increase of 5.5% for the S&P. Rate-sensitive real estate (+0.5%)  and utilities (+0.3%) won the sector battle for the day as a number of Federal Reserve (Fed) presidents expressed interest in potentially reducing the Fed’s balance sheet; financials (-0.7%) was the worst performer. Overseas, the Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Nikkei (+0.4%) gained ground on strong regional Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data; China’s Shanghai Composite was closed for a holiday. In Europe, the STOXX 600 Index (-0.2%) and most markets are lower. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil ($50.46/barrel) is down slightly, COMEX gold ($1253/oz.) is near flat, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down to 2.36%.

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  • Checking in on so-called Trump trades. Recent underperformance of small caps, financials, and industrials likely reflects some loss of confidence in the Trump agenda, although we believe small caps and financials may have enough going for them that the recent weakness may be a buying opportunity, even with a scaled-back policy path. Industrials, on the other hand, may need more help from the macroeconomic environment should policy disappoint.
  • Just missed five in a row. The S&P 500 lost 0.04% last month, after a late-day drop on Friday. This was the first monthly decline since October, just missing the first five month win streak since March-July 2016. It was still a great first quarter as the S&P 500 jumped 5.5%; the best return since Q4 2015 and the best Q1 since 2013. For the quarter, technology and consumer discretionary led, while telecom and energy lagged.
  • April is usually strong. Over the past 20 years, no month sports a higher monthly S&P 500 average than April at 2.0%. Going back to 1950[1], the average monthly return is 1.5%, with only the historically strong months of November and December better. Post-election years are also strong, up 1.6% on average. Lastly, after a big first quarter gain of 5% or more (like 2017), April actually does better at up 2.0% on average.
  • April is a big month. There are multiple potential market-moving events in April: the start of Q1 earnings season, elections in France, and a potential government shutdown head the list of things we are watching closely. To get ready for the big month, we will examine these events more closely.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • ISM (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. PMI (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Eurostat PPI Industry Ex-Construction (Fed)

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Eurostat Retail Sales Volume (Feb)

Wednesday

  • ISM Non-Mfg. (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Services & Composite PMI

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr)
  • Eurozone: Market Retail PMI (Mar)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (Mar)
  • Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (March)

 

 

 

 

[1] Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: February 13, 2017

© Spencer Platt/Getty Images

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. indexes aim for fresh record highs on global strength. Domestic markets look to add to last week’s gains after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% Friday with all but one sector finishing in the green; materials (+0.9%), energy (+0.8%), and industrials (+0.8%) led the way while consumer staples (-0.1%) lost ground. Overseas, stocks in Asia began the week higher as traders evaluated Japanese GDP data and a generally positive outcome of the U.S.-Japan summit over the weekend; the Shanghai Composite (+0.6%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) led major indexes in the region, while the Nikkei gained 0.4%. European markets are also moving up as the STOXX 600 is heading for its fifth consecutive gain. Elsewhere, the dollar touched a two-week high, WTI crude oil ($53.07/barrel) is pulling back after three days of gains, COMEX gold ($1227/oz.) is modestly lower, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries is up 3 basis points (0.03%) to 2.44%.

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  • Earnings update: strong growth, decent upside. With 71% of S&P 500 companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings are tracking to an 8.4% year-over-year increase, 2.3% above estimates on January 1, 2017 (Thomson Reuters data). Financials, materials, and technology have produced the most upside (all 3% or more) and financials the most growth (+20.8%), followed by technology at 10.9%. An earnings gain for all 11 S&P sectors remains possible with no sector down more than 1.5%. Revenue growth ticked up to 4.4%, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology. This week is another busy one with 55 S&P 500 companies slated to report results.

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  • Supportive guidance. S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2017 are down by a below-average 1.1% since earnings season began (the average decline is 2.5%). Industrials, financials and energy estimates have held up best, with energy actually seeing estimates rise. We continue to expect mid- to high-single-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 overall in 2017, and have seen nothing from corporate America during earnings season that would cause us to lose confidence in that forecast. The possibility exists that this forecast might prove too low given the potential for a policy boost later this year
  • Real estate by cycles. Evaluating real estate investments depends on three cycles: the economic cycle, the building cycle, and the interest rate cycle. We believe we are in a good spot in the economic cycle for attractive real estate returns, with steady job gains and an improving domestic economic growth outlook. The building cycle for real estate shows little sign of the type of overbuilding that has ended previous cycles. Finally, although we expect interest rates to rise, we expect increases to be modest and driven by improving economic growth and a gradual pickup in inflation, conditions historically favorable for real estate. Based on these metrics, our real estate outlook, including REITs, is favorable while a spike in interest rates remains a key risk.
  • Japan releases Q4 and 2016 gross domestic product (GDP) data overnight. The results were modestly disappointing as Q4 growth was 0.2% vs. an estimated 0.3%; for calendar year 2016, GDP growth was 1.0%, vs. consensus expectations of 1.1%. More telling than the narrow miss itself is the source of Japanese growth: mostly exports. Domestic consumption was flat for Q4 and represented about one half of the total economic growth in 2016. This may encourage Japanese authorities to weaken the yen further, though doing so may ire the Trump administration, which had previously labeled Japan’s trade surplus as unfair. Japanese stocks were stronger overnight, while the yen weakened 0.4%.
  • Busy calendar this week includes Yellen testimony. Fed Chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress highlights this week’s very busy economic and event calendar. In addition to Yellen, a half dozen other Fed officials are on the docket as markets gauge whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its March 2017 meeting. The data due out this week on January CPI, retail sales, leading indicators, housing starts and industrial production, along with February reports on Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing and housing market sentiment, will weigh on the Fed’s decision. Overseas, Q4 GDP reports are due out in the Eurozone, Poland, and Malaysia, along with the always timely ZEW report (February) in Germany. There are no major central bank meetings this week.
  • Happy Anniversary. The S&P 500 hit last year’s low on February 11 and has since gained more than 26%. Over the past year we’ve seen a massive global stock market rally, with financials, energy, and materials leading in the U.S. A year ago there were calls to “sell everything” and many high-profile cuts of year-end equity targets.

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Sunday

  • Japan: GDP (Q4)

Monday

  • China: CPI (Jan)

Tuesday

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Jan)
  • Fed Chair Yellen’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony to Congress-Senate
  • Kaplan (Hawk*)
  • Eurozone: GDP (Q4)
  • Germany: ZEW (Feb)

Wednesday

  • CPI (Jan)
  • Retail Sales (Jan)
  • NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)
  • Fed Chair Yellen’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony to Congress-House

Thursday

  • Housing Starts (Jan)
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Report (Feb)
  • G-20 Foreign Ministers meeting
  • Eurozonee: Account of the 01/19/17 European Central Bank meeting released

Friday

  • Leading Indicators (Jan)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Welcome To The Strongest Month Of The Year For Equities Historically

The month of November is in the books. We came into the month with the longest Dow losing streak in 35 years and many concerns over the U.S. presidential election. In the end, the fears didn’t materialize and equities had a big move higher.

Here is a summary of what happened last month:

• November was a great month for equities, as the S&P 500 gained 3.4%—its best monthly gain since a 6.6% gain in March. It was the best return in November since a 5.7% bounce in 2009.
• As good as the month was for equities, it was that bad for bonds as rates spiked. The Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index was down 4% for the worst month on record going back to 1990.
• The S&P 500 went the entire month without a 1% drop, only the third time that has happened the past 20 years during November.
• Small caps had a huge month, as the Russell 2000 gained 11.0% for the largest monthly gain since a 15.0% jump in October 2011.
• During the month, the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 15 consecutive days for only the fifth time since 1979, but the record of 21 straight green closes from 1988 remains safe.
• Turning to sectors*, financials gained 14.0%, for their best monthly gain since a 14.3% advance in October 2011. Industrials, energy, and materials all led as well. Utilities and real estate lagged as higher rates lowered demand for higher yielding assets. Consumer staples also lagged, as money rotated away from more defensive sectors.
• All four days of Thanksgiving week were green, something that interestingly has now happened in three consecutive election years.

December is known for many things, but from a financial point of view, the best thing might be that it has been a historically strong month for stocks. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist at LPL Financial, “December is the feel-good time of the year and Santa tends to come for equities as well, as no month is higher more often or up more on average. Not to mention the Dow has been lower each of the past two Decembers, and since 1896, it has never been lower three years in a row.”

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Here are some points to remember:

• December has been historically one of the strongest months for equities. Going back to 1950**, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.6% and been higher 76% of the time; both are the best out of all 12 months.
• When the S&P 500 has been up for the year heading into December, the average return in the month jumped to 2%. When the year has been down heading into the month, the average return dropped to 0.8%.
• The catch is the S&P 500 has been lower in December during the past two years for only the sixth time in history (going back to 1928). It has never been lower for three consecutive years.
• It is rare to see a large pullback during this month as well, as since 1950, the average return when the month is negative has been only -2.1%, the smallest loss out of all 12 months.
• Incredibly, since 1950, only once has the S&P 500 closed the month of December beneath the low close from the month of November.
• Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has never had its weakest month of the year during the month of December. In fact, it has only had the 11th and 10th worst months of the year seven times.
• The last time December was the worst month of the year for the Dow was in 1916, when it dropped more than 10% during World War I.

 

 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. *As measured by S&P 500 sub-indexes. **The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1928 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90. Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a nondiversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk. Because of their narrow focus, specialty sector investing, such as healthcare, financials, or energy, will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency). The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is comprised of U.S.-listed stocks of companies that produce other (non-transportation and nonutility) goods and services. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages are maintained by editors of The Wall Street Journal. While the stock selection process is somewhat subjective, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors, and accurately represents the market sectors covered by the average. The Dow Jones averages are unique in that they are price weighted; therefore, their component weightings are affected only by changes in the stocks’ prices. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC. 

 

 

Increase Your Home’s Value with a Fresh Coat of Paint

Getting ready to sell your house or condo? One of the easiest home improvements to get buyers’ attention is a fresh coat of paint. Plus it’s a cost-effective fix that will make your home look updated – which can translate to increased value. Sara McLean, color expert and blogger for Dunn-Edwards Paints, offers tips on how to choose interior colors that appeal to most people.

  • First she cautions on painting everything white or beige, because your home might end up looking more like an apartment, rather than an upscale home
  • Stick to earth tones and nature-based colors. Warm browns and milky tans – think latte. Light greens and blues are classy, and even some reds and oranges. Warm grays are popular now, rather than cool grays
  • Take the flooring into consideration and lay your color chips on the floor to see how they pair. Warm tones tend to look better with most hardwood. Whereas tile, terrazzo or carpet may dictate other colors
  • While neutrals are safe, don’t make the entire home so neutral that it’s boring. An occasional accent wall in a darker or complementary shade adds a designer look.
  • Give a room life without being personal. Many people have a visceral reaction to bold colors and buyers’ first thought is that they will need to repaint
  • Kitchens and baths work well with a little more color to brighten up and make them fresh, clean and inviting
  • In the kitchen, soft buttery yellows with slight brown undertones are popular, happy colors. Olive and sage greens, make it feel garden-y and fresh. If you don’t have a tile backsplash, create one with an eggshell or semi-gloss paint — either a solid color or with a decorative stencil
  • Baths, laundry room and powders can incorporate brighter colors because they’re smaller – play with color a little bit. Oranges and reds are trending now and through next year, as well as teal and turquoise

“Once you have chosen a color, pick up a few samples and paint a section of the wall, near permanent structures like fireplaces, flooring and cabinetry,” McLean recommends. “Live with the samples at least a full a day to see them in all light sources. What looks light and bright in the morning, may look dungeon-y at night.”

Next step, she advises, is to choose the gloss level. Flat, velvet or eggshell are­ good for interior walls, while a higher sheen looks pretty on trim and in kitchens and bathrooms. The higher gloss levels are easier to clean, so they are ideal for high traffic areas. Look for trim paint that is water based but with the upscale look of oil based.

Source: Dunn-Edwards

The Surprising Costs of Downsizing Your Home

© Jamie Grill/Getty Images
© Jamie Grill/Getty Images

When I look at my retirement stash, I have to admit it’s kind of small. When I look at my house, I realize it’s kind of big. And when I consider the two together, I think that maybe I should downsize and use the equity in my house to buy a condo or add to my retirement savings and rent.

Downsizing isn’t for everyone, but it’s one of the few strategies — along with working longer, delaying Social Security or spending less later in retirement — available to near-retirees who find themselves short on retirement savings and don’t have time to catch up, says Steven Sass, of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. “The house is a major source of people’s savings. If you don’t want to work longer or give up eating out in retirement, downsizing should be part of the plan.” (Another way to get at home equity is to take out a reverse mortgage)

Do the math. Before you sell your house and move, add up the costs that can chip away at the amount you free up. For starters, fixing up a house to sell often means spending thousands of dollars in repairs and upgrades (new roof, anyone?). Once the house does sell, you’ll pay commissions to real estate agents on both sides of the transaction, usually to the tune of 6% of the home’s value. Packing and transporting enough furniture to outfit a two-bedroom condo will run $1,500 if you move a few miles away and $5,000 or more if you move across the country, according to the calculator at http://www.moving.com. As for the furniture you don’t keep, you could find yourself spending a few thousand dollars to ship the good stuff to your kid across country and paying a hauler to cart away the rest.

Even after the move, you won’t be home-free. Condo association fees run at least several hundred dollars a month, on top of insurance and property taxes, and if the building needs a major improvement, such as a new roof, you’ll get hit by a special assessment to help cover the cost. Renting is more predictable but leaves you vulnerable to annual rent hikes. And whether you rent or buy, you’ll surely want to buy new furnishings that fit the smaller space, says Paul Miller, a certified financial planner in Boca Raton, Fla. “You think you’re freeing up all this money by downsizing, and then you spend thousands to refurbish.”

Other expenses you might not have considered: Instead of the driveway you currently enjoy, you’ll probably have to fork over cash for a parking space. If you can’t squeeze Grandma’s armoire into the second bedroom (or bear to part with it), you’ll pay $100 a month to rent a storage unit. Because you won’t want to stash those old tax records in the second bedroom, you’ll spring for storage space in the building. Moving far away from friends and family? Factor in the expense of traveling back to the old neighborhood a few times a year. As for the next family reunion, that won’t be happening in your two-bedroom condo: Count on covering the cost of renting a beach house.

Of course, moving to a condo or apartment also allows you to cut your utility bills, eliminate yardwork and snow shoveling, and get rid of your mortgage or trade it for a smaller one — and maybe you’ll make your kids chip in for the beach house. Still, be sure to add up the pluses and minuses before you put out the For Sale sign, not after.

“There are a lot of considerations that go into the downsizing decision,” says Miller. “This may be the last move you’re going to make, so you’d better make it a good one.”

Written by Jane Bennett Clark of Kiplinger

(Source: Kiplinger)