Market Update: April 24, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. up, Europe surging in wake of French vote. U.S. equities are tracking global markets higher this morning following yesterday’s first round of the French presidential elections in which Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen finished in the top spots, triggering a run-off vote set for May 7. Friday’s session concluded with the major indexes posting modest losses ahead of the vote, as the S&P 500 (-0.3%) was led lower by the telecom (-1.6%) and financials (-0.9%) sectors, with only utilities (+0.5%) and industrials (+0.1%) finishing positive. Overseas, Asian indexes reacted positively to the French election as the Nikkei (+1.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) gapped higher; the notable exception was the Shanghai Composite (-1.4%), which fell amidst a government crackdown on leverage. European indexes are spiking as the STOXX 600 (+1.8%) benefits from investors betting on the pro-E.U. candidate Macron; Frances’s CAC is up more than 4% to its highest level in nine years. Finally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has jumped to 2.30%, WTI crude oil (-0.5%) is just below $50/barrel, and COMEX gold ($1271/oz.) has dropped 1.4%.

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  • Solid start to Q1 earnings season. With 95 S&P 500 companies having reported, Thomson-tracked S&P 500 earnings for first quarter 2017 point to an 11.2% year-over-year increase, compared with consensus estimates of +10.2% as of quarter end on April 1, 2017. The early upside has been driven largely by financials, which are tracking to a 19.0% year-over-year increase, more than 4% above quarter-end estimates. Industrials have also surprised to the upside thus far. Conversely, since earnings season began, first quarter earnings estimates have been cut for the consumer discretionary, energy, and telecom sectors, though it is probably too early to call any of these sectors “earnings season losers.” This week (4/24/17-4/28/17) is the busiest week of earnings season with 194 S&P 500 companies slated to report. All of the widely-held sectors are well represented on the earnings calendar, led by industrials.

4-24-17-earnings-dashboard

  • Leading indicators rise for seventh consecutive month. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) pushed 0.4% higher in March, ahead of expectations but decelerating from a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February. Eight of 10 indicators increased in March, led by contributions from the yield curve and strong new manufacturing orders survey data. The LEI has climbed 3.5% year over year, a rate that has historically been associated with low odds of a recession occurring within the next year.
  • The latest Beige Book suggests a steady economy with modest wage pressure. The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its April Beige Book last week ahead of the May 2-3, 2017 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Our Beige Book Barometer (strong words minus weak words) rose to +77 in April, its highest level since +84 in January 2016, indicating continued steady economic growth in early 2017 with some signs of potential acceleration. Words related to wage pressure have held steady over the last six months at levels above the 2015-2016 average, indicating the appearance of modest but still manageable wage pressure.
  • Important period for European markets. This week, we examine the importance of European market earnings, particularly in important sectors like energy and banking. Expectations remain high for earnings growth throughout 2017, which has kept us cautious on investing in European markets. Political risks also remain, but seem to be abating as we get past the first round of French Presidential elections.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Germany: Ifo (Apr)

Tuesday

  • New Home Sales (Mar)

Wednesday

  • BOJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement
  • BOJ Interest Rate Decision

Thursday

  • Durable Goods Orders (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • Japan: CPI (Mar)

Friday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Apr)

Saturday

  • EU Leaders Summit
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Apr)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: April 17, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks tick higher to begin week. U.S. equities are slightly higher this morning as earnings season ramps up this week with 63 S&P 500 components set to report. Markets moved lower the final three sessions of the last week’s shortened trading week, concluding with a 0.7% loss for the S&P 500 on Thursday which was led lower by energy (-1.9%) and financials (-1.7%). Asian indexes closed mixed overnight, with the Nikkei gaining 0.1%, while China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7% as a request from the country’s top securities regulator to tighten controls overshadowed an upside surprise to Gross Domestic Product (GDP); European markets are closed for Easter Monday. Meanwhile COMEX gold ($1291/oz.) is near flat, WTI crude oil ($53.03/barrel) is dropping 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year Note little changed at 2.23%.

MacroView_header

  • First big earnings week on tap. This week 16% of the S&P 500’s market cap will report first quarter 2017 results, highlighted by the financials and industrials sectors. Banks got the season off to a good start late last week, pushing the financials earnings growth rate to near 18% from an estimated 15.6% over the past week. Overall, Thomson-tracked consensus for S&P 500 earnings is calling for a 10.4% year-over-year increase in the quarter; a strong 76% earnings beat rate thus far has lifted overall earnings growth by 0.2% (though just 6% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported last week). Look for our earnings dashboard here on April 24.
  • Consumer prices fell in March. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% month over month in March, below consensus expectations for a flat reading. Core prices, excluding food and energy, slipped 0.1% month over month, the first sequential decline since January of 2010 and well below consensus estimates of +0.2%. The drop pushed the year-over-year changes in headline and core prices to 2.4% (down from 2.7% in February) and 2.0% (down from 2.2% in February), respectively. The drop in prices was broad based, driven by a combination of wireless phone services, apparel, autos, and housing. We continue to expect two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2017, but the soft data in March may cause markets to at least partially discount the probability of a June hike, which is currently about a coin flip based on fed funds futures markets.
  • Retail sales fell for the second straight month. Following a downward revision to February, retail sales fell for the second straight month in March, slipping 0.2% (vs. consensus of -0.1%), though sales increased by a respectable 5.2% on a year-over-year basis. Core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services), rose 0.5% month over month, above expectations, after a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in February. Consumer spending clearly slowed in the first quarter after a strong finish to 2016, but weather, delayed tax refunds, and seasonal quirks in first quarter data in recent years suggest a rebound in the second quarter is likely. Still, first quarter gross domestic product, based on available data to date, is tracking to only about 1%.
  • Upside surprise to Chinese GDP. The Chinese government released its official Q1 GDP report overnight, up 6.9%, better than expectations which generally were in the 6.5%-6.7% range. Economic indicators were up across the board, including growth in Fixed Asset Investment (infrastructure and real estate spending), which is often heavily influenced by government policy, and retail sales. Consumer spending is key to the Chinese government, as it is trying to manage its economy away from infrastructure and heavy industry and toward consumer spending and the service sector.
  • Though many are skeptical regarding Chinese GDP growth figures, what may matter most is how China responds to them. Because the government is signaling that the economic situation is strong, it gives it room to be more aggressive on important issues, primarily the debt problem. Chinese shares were down slightly despite the positive data. Why? Perhaps because of the government’s signal that policy will shift away from supporting the economy (which officially no longer needs the support) and toward dealing with these longer term imbalances.
  • Checking in on technicals, sentiment, and uncertainty. This week we will take a look at market technicals, sentiment, and the ever increasing uncertainty. The good news is market breadth remains strong and globally we are seeing many major markets in uptrends as well. Still, sentiment is a mixed picture and the level of uncertainty remains high. All of this, coupled with the historically low level of market volatility during the first-quarter, makes the potential for higher volatility very likely.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • BOJ: Kuroda Speaks to Trust Companies Association

Wednesday

  • Beige Book
  • Eurozone: Trade Balance (Feb)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Mar)

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 15)
  • Conference Board US Leading Index (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Friday

  • Existing Home Sales (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (Apr)
  • CAD: CPI (Mar)
  • ECB: Current Account (Feb)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: April 10, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks move higher to start week. U.S. equities are modestly higher this morning as investors look ahead to the start of first quarter earnings season, with several tier one banks set to report later this week. This after major indexes shook off a lackluster jobs report and pushed higher through midday, only to give back gains late in the session; the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. The telecom (+0.2%) and healthcare (+0.2%) sectors clung to modest gains, while financials (-0.3%) and energy (-0.4%) stocks were among the days’ laggards. Overseas, investors are focusing on political turmoil stemming from Syrian incidents amid light economic data; Asian markets were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (+0.7%) advancing, and the Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) moving lower; while European indexes are near flat amid range-bound trading. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($52.80/barrel) continues to climb on regional turmoil in the middle east, COMEX gold ($1250/oz.) is lower, and Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.37% on the 10-year.

MacroView_header

  • Over the last month, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index (CCI) fell 20 points to 235. The CCI remains in the middle of the range it has held since 2010. Falling shipping traffic and an increase in initial jobless claims off of near 40-year lows were the main detractors from the CCI in the last month, while fed fund rate expectations and credit spreads were the main positive contributors.
  • Inflation and highlights from this week’s economic calendar. Despite Friday’s holiday, retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI) will be reported on that day (producer prices come Thursday) and will highlight what is otherwise a quiet week of data in the U.S. Two reports that deserve some attention, however, are National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) which will provide some insights into the policy-driven rise in business confidence and the job market, where Friday’s weak payroll employment report raised some concerns. Overseas, we get Chinese and Japanese trade data and G7 Finance Ministers will meet, while geopolitical risk will remain in focus following last week’s military strike in Syria.
  • S&P 500 poised for double-digit earnings gain. The S&P 500 is likely to produce double-digit year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter (Thomson-tracked consensus is +10.1%) as earnings season gets underway this week. Earnings growth would reach 12-14%, the best since 2011, should companies beat estimates by the average 4.1% seen over the last five years according to FactSet. Last year’s first quarter marked the trough of the earnings recession, setting up an easy comparison, though we have several other reasons to be optimistic. Growth is expected to be powered by energy’s rebound from the oil downturn that battered the sector early last year while solid macro data in recent months is also supportive.
  • Fed balance sheet. Minutes from the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released last Wednesday, signaled that the Fed intends to reduce its sizable $4.2 trillion balance sheet. We’ll analyze the options available to the Fed to accomplish a reduction of this size. In addition to how the balance sheet was built, we look at the structure of the assets within the portfolio for clues as to how the normalization may impact markets.
  • Continued strong breadth. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite Advance/Decline (A/D) line broke out to new highs last week. This is one of our favorite technical indicators, as it shows how many stocks are advancing versus declining at any given time. In other words, it measures overall market breadth. To see new highs occur suggests there is a good deal of investor participation and the overall equity rally could continue to have legs. Also, the NYSE A/D line broke out to new highs one year ago this week, well ahead of the eventual S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) new highs in July 2016.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Industrial Production (Feb)

Wednesday

  • Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 1)

Friday

  • Banks Open, Markets Closed
  • CPI (Mar)
  • Retail Sales (Mar)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. 

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: April 3, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks search for direction to begin Q2. After closing out a solid first quarter amidst Brexit and Trump-trade uncertainties, equities are modestly lower in early trading. Friday’s session saw the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and the Dow (-0.3%) finish in the red, ending the quarter without enthusiasm despite an overall increase of 5.5% for the S&P. Rate-sensitive real estate (+0.5%)  and utilities (+0.3%) won the sector battle for the day as a number of Federal Reserve (Fed) presidents expressed interest in potentially reducing the Fed’s balance sheet; financials (-0.7%) was the worst performer. Overseas, the Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Nikkei (+0.4%) gained ground on strong regional Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data; China’s Shanghai Composite was closed for a holiday. In Europe, the STOXX 600 Index (-0.2%) and most markets are lower. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil ($50.46/barrel) is down slightly, COMEX gold ($1253/oz.) is near flat, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down to 2.36%.

MacroView_header

  • Checking in on so-called Trump trades. Recent underperformance of small caps, financials, and industrials likely reflects some loss of confidence in the Trump agenda, although we believe small caps and financials may have enough going for them that the recent weakness may be a buying opportunity, even with a scaled-back policy path. Industrials, on the other hand, may need more help from the macroeconomic environment should policy disappoint.
  • Just missed five in a row. The S&P 500 lost 0.04% last month, after a late-day drop on Friday. This was the first monthly decline since October, just missing the first five month win streak since March-July 2016. It was still a great first quarter as the S&P 500 jumped 5.5%; the best return since Q4 2015 and the best Q1 since 2013. For the quarter, technology and consumer discretionary led, while telecom and energy lagged.
  • April is usually strong. Over the past 20 years, no month sports a higher monthly S&P 500 average than April at 2.0%. Going back to 1950[1], the average monthly return is 1.5%, with only the historically strong months of November and December better. Post-election years are also strong, up 1.6% on average. Lastly, after a big first quarter gain of 5% or more (like 2017), April actually does better at up 2.0% on average.
  • April is a big month. There are multiple potential market-moving events in April: the start of Q1 earnings season, elections in France, and a potential government shutdown head the list of things we are watching closely. To get ready for the big month, we will examine these events more closely.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • ISM (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. PMI (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Eurostat PPI Industry Ex-Construction (Fed)

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Eurostat Retail Sales Volume (Feb)

Wednesday

  • ISM Non-Mfg. (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Services & Composite PMI

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr)
  • Eurozone: Market Retail PMI (Mar)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (Mar)
  • Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (March)

 

 

 

 

[1] Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: March 27, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Equities slip after healthcare reform shelved. U.S. indexes are tracking global stocks lower this morning after Congress was unable to push through the American Health Care Act, casting some uncertainty over prospects for tax reform as well. On Friday, the S&P 500 (-0.1%) closed modestly lower, dragged down by materials (-0.9%) and energy (-0.5%); utilities (+0.4%) was the best performing sector. Overnight, Asian markets were led lower by Japan’s Nikkei (-1.4%) on yen strength; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.7%) and China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.1%) fared better. Stocks are also lower across the board in Europe, notably in Germany’s DAX (-0.9%) and Italy’s MIB (-0.9%). Elsewhere, the recent weakness in WTI crude oil ($47.21/barrel) continues, while the risk-off sentiment is boosting COMEX gold ($1262/oz.) and Treasuries, lowering the yield on the 10-year Note by five basis points (0.05%) to 2.35%.

MacroView_header

  • Our Final Four factors in today’s Weekly Market Commentary. With college basketball’s Final Four set, this week we share our “Final Four factors” for the stock market in 2017. We expect a hard-fought battle between these factors and market risks. But when the “tournament” is over on December 31, depending on the path of policy out of Washington, D.C., we expect the S&P 500 to be at or above current levels.
    1. Economic Growth – We continue to expect a modest pickup in economic growth in 2017 to near 2.5%, based on gross domestic product (GDP), supported by increasing business investment, steady consumer spending gains, and, later in the year, pro-growth fiscal policy to be enacted.
    2. Earnings – We expect high-single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth in 2017[1], supported by better U.S. economic growth, rebounding energy sector profits, a stable U.S. dollar, and resilient profit margins.
    3. Corporate Tax Reform – Corporate tax reform, which remains the centerpiece of the Trump economic agenda, is still likely to get done in the next year despite the failure to get the healthcare bill through the House last week. The Trump administration will immediately pivot to tax reform, though a comprehensive overhaul will be difficult to achieve.
    4. The Fed – We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates twice more in 2017 following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate hike on March 15. We are encouraged by the Fed’s acknowledgement of the improved economic outlook and its stated plan to hike rates gradually.
  • Down seven in a row. The Dow closed lower on Friday for the seventh consecutive session. The last seven-day losing streak was ahead of the U.S. election, and it hasn’t been down eight in a row since August 2011. The S&P 500 meanwhile has closed lower six of the past seven days. Taking a closer look at the Dow’s seven-day losing streak, it has been green at some point each day. Also, the total loss during the streak is only 1.7%. To put this in perspective, since 1980, there have now been 20 seven-day losing streaks. The average drop during the previous 19 was 7.3% and the current drop of 1.74% ranks as the second smallest loss.

MonitoringWeek_header

 Monday

  • Evans (Dove)
  • Eurozone: M3 Money Supply (Feb)
  • China: PBOC’s Zhou Speech

Wednesday

  • Evans (Dove)

 Thursday

  • GDP (Revision) (Q4)
  • Eurozone: Industrial, Services & Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Mar)

 Friday

  • Personal Income (Feb)
  • Kashkari (Dove)

 

 

 

 

[1] We expect S&P 500 gains to be driven by: 1) a pickup in U.S. economic growth partially due to fiscal stimulus; 2) mid- to high-single-digit earnings gains as corporate America emerges from its year-long earnings recession; 3) an expansion in bank lending; and 4) a stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 – 19.

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: March 20, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks little changed following G20. Major indexes are near flat this morning as stocks search for direction amid little economic data and traders assess the impact of the weekend’s G20 summit, which ended with a whimper. This follows a quiet session on Friday in which the heavily-weighted financials (-1.1%) sector kept the S&P 500 (-0.1%) underwater. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed overnight with the Shanghai Composite (+0.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.8%) moving higher while stocks in India and South Korea finished lower; the Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Europe is mostly lower midday with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%, though off session lows. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil is retracing Friday’s gains, COMEX gold is ticking higher as the dollar continues to weaken, and 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.50%.

MacroView_header

  • Housing data, Fed speakers highlight the week ahead. This week, we get some key data points on housing, with existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday. We also get data on manufacturing with both durable goods orders and Markit’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Friday. Nine Fed members, including four voting members (Yellen, Dudley, Evans, and Kashkari) are lined up to speak this week, providing an opportunity for further insight on last week’s rate hike.
  • Industrial production flat, but manufacturing improving. Industrial production was flat in February, missing expectations of 0.2% growth, although a 0.2% upward revision to January provided an offset. Utility production held the overall industrial production number down after another warm month, but manufacturing production rose 0.5%, topping expectations of 0.4%, a meaningful beat given it came on top of a 0.3% upward revision to January’s data. The gains provide further evidence of a strengthening rebound in manufacturing already being signaled by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and several regional manufacturing indexes.
  • Leading indicators remain strong. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.6% in February, topping consensus expectations and matching similarly strong gains in December and January. The largest positive contributor for the month was the ISM new orders index, reflecting recent gains in manufacturing. The index accelerated to a 3.1% gain year over year, its highest growth rate since August 2015. The LEI continues to point to a low chance of a recession in the next year.
  • In the spirit of March Madness, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the stock market. Specifically, we have identified 16 keys-many of them policy related-for stocks for the rest of 2017 and assessed their implications for the stock market. While the path for several policy-related areas is uncertain, we still expect a solid year for stocks in 2017-potentially even slightly above our S&P 500 target of mid-single-digit gains[1] depending on the exact policy path. Look for a deeper dive into four of these 16 keys to the market in our “Final Four” next week.
  • Big bounce for small caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was up 1.9% last week, which was the largest weekly gain of the year for small caps and the best weekly bounce since early December. This is a nice change, as small caps have lagged most of 2017 after an 8.4% gain during the fourth quarter of last year. In fact, year to date, the RUT is up only 2.5% versus 6.2% for the S&P 500. Many have blamed the recent underperformance on investor skepticism on how quickly tax cuts and infrastructure spending will be implemented. At the same time, some weakness after the huge fourth quarter rally is perfectly normal.

 

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Evans (Dove)

Tuesday

  • Dudley (Dove)

Wednesday

  • Existing Homes Sales (Feb)

Thursday

  • New Home Sales (Feb)
  • Yellen (Dove)
  • Kashkari (Dove)
  • Kaplan (Hawk)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • Japan: Nikkei Mfg. PMI (Mar)

Friday

  • Durable Goods Orders and Shipments (Feb)
  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit PMI (Mar)

Saturday

  • China: PBOC’s Zhou Speech

 

 

 

[1] We expect mid-single-digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2017 consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance. We expect S&P 500 gains to be driven by: 1) a pickup in U.S. economic growth partially due to fiscal stimulus; 2) mid- to high-single-digit earnings gains as corporate America emerges from its year-long earnings recession; 3) an expansion in bank lending; and 4) a stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 – 19.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: March 6, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Equities move lower to begin week. U.S. stocks are moving lower in early trading, following their European counterparts on little news. The major averages all managed to squeak out slight gains on Friday; the S&P 500’s 0.1% gain was led by financials and healthcare, which both closed up 0.4%. Overnight in Asia, stocks finished mostly higher with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei (-0.5%) as the yen strengthened; the STOXX Europe 600 is lower by 0.5% in afternoon trading. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is near flat at 2.48% as market-implied expectations of a Fed rate hike in March are near 86%, WTI crude oil ($53.25/barrel) is slightly lower, and COMEX gold ($1231/oz.) is climbing 0.4%.

MacroView_header

  • Brexit, EU summit, China forecasts, Fed “quiet period”, and February jobs report highlight week ahead. Other than the February employment report (due out this Friday, March 10)  it’s a relatively quiet week for U.S. economic data. It’s also the unofficial quiet period for the Federal Reserve ahead of the March 14-15 FOMC meeting. The overseas calendar is chock full of potentially market-moving events, including the EU leaders summit, a potential House of Lords vote on Brexit, the European Central Bank meeting, and a few key reports on China’s economy in February.
  • Beige Book. This week, we’ll examine the Fed’s latest Beige Book, looking for signs of any impact from the new Trump administration, an overheating labor market, rising wages, and inflation ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
  • Corporate sentiment improved again in our latest Corporate Beige Book. Sentiment improved among corporate executives based on our analysis of fourth quarter earnings conference call transcripts. Not surprisingly, policy was a popular topic, as corporate tax reform, infrastructure and regulation saw big jumps in the number of mentions. Currency and China also continued to garner a lot of attention, while energy and Brexit faded. The solid fourth quarter results coupled with improved sentiment from corporate executives support our expectation of mid-to-high single digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2017.
  • The Chinese National People’s Congress began its annual meeting on Sunday. Nothing shocking has come out of the meeting so far, though little was expected. Official economic growth forecasts have been cut to 6.5%. The focus of the meeting has been on economic stability, including a reduction in monetary growth targets and efforts to reduce China’s bad debt problem. The most notable change in language related to calls for further currency liberalization. A more market-oriented currency policy suggests potential weakening of the yuan, which would run counter to China’s long-term political goals, as well as increase the likelihood of China being labeled a “currency manipulator” by the Trump administration.
  • Make that six in a row. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% for the second consecutive week, and managed to close at a new weekly all-time high. In the process, it closed higher for the sixth consecutive week for the first time since a six-week win streak off of the February 2016 lows. The last time it was up seven weeks in a row was late 2014. Here’s the catch, the S&P 500 was up only 4.9% the past six weeks – making this one of the weakest six-week win streaks ever. Given the historically small daily trading ranges recently, this shouldn’t come as a big surprise. You have to go back to late 2013 for the last time there was a smaller return during a six-week win streak.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Kashkari (Dove)

 Tuesday

  • China: Imports and Exports (Feb)
  • Japan: Economy Watchers Survey

 Wednesday

  • ADP Employment (Feb)
  • China: CPI (Feb)

Thursday

  • Initial Claims (3/5)
  • Challenger Job Cut Announcements (Feb)
  • Household Net Worth and Flow of Funds (Q4)
  • European Union leaders Summit in Brussels Begins
  • Eurozone: European Central Bank Meeting (No Change Expected)

Friday

  • Employment Report (Feb)
  • European Union leaders Summit in Brussels Continues

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: February 27, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks lower as busy week begins. Markets are lower this morning as investors evaluate mixed durable goods orders data and await several Fed speakers and President Trump’s address to Congress this week. Domestic stocks rallied at the end of the day on Friday, helping the Dow notch its eleventh consecutive gain; the S&P 500 was up 0.2%. Rate-sensitive utilities (+1.5%) and telecom (+0.7%) outperformed while energy (-0.9%) and financials (-0.7%) were the only sectors to lose ground. Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei (-0.9%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.8%) led broad declines in the region, while most European exchanges are modestly lower in afternoon trading, although Italy’s MIB (+1.5%) is bucking the trend.  Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($54.38/barrel) is up 0.7%, COMEX gold ($1259/oz.) is near flat, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up three basis points (0.03%) to 2.34%.

MacroView_header

  • Earnings season winds down this week. With 32 S&P 500 companies slated to report this week and 460 having reported already, this week effectively marks the end of fourth quarter earnings season. S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter is tracking to solid 7.7% growth according to Thomson Reuters data, less than 2% above prior estimates, while revenue growth is tracking to a very respectable 4.3% increase. While fourth quarter upside is below average, the growth rate is a meaningful improvement from the 4% growth rate in the third quarter of 2016 and flat or negative growth for several quarters before that. Looking forward, the modest 1% drop in 2017 S&P 500 earnings estimates, which remain 10-11% above 2016 earnings, is an encouraging sign. We believe our mid- to high-single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth forecast for 2017[1] is achievable given our expectation for better economic growth and potential for a policy boost.

021717_earningsdashboard-011

  • Busy start to a very busy month. This is an incredibly busy week for economic data and events around the globe. In the U.S., President Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, and Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer will deliver speeches on Friday. In addition, there are half a dozen other FOMC members on the docket this week, and the Fed will also release its Beige Book Wednesday March 1 ahead of the March 14-15, 2017 meeting. In addition to that, data for January and February on ISM (manufacturing and non manufacturing), vehicle sales, and pending home sales are due out. Overseas, the U.K.’s House of Lords will begin debate on Article 50 (aka Brexit), China will release key data in manufacturing and service sector activity, and in Europe, February data on CPI and bank lending for January will be closely watched.
  • Durable goods order and shipments. Sizable upward revisions to prior months’ data offsets weaker than expected January reading. New orders for “core” durable goods fell 0.4% between December and January, but the December reading, initially reported as a 0.7% gain, was revised up to show a 1.1% increase instead. The durable goods data are notoriously volatile month-to-month and subject to large revisions.  Looking at changes over three months can help to smooth out some of the inherent volatility, and in the three months ending January 2017, core durable goods orders rose 9%, a clear acceleration from the 4% gain posted in the three months ending October 2016. The acceleration in orders in the past three months suggests that business capital spending is likely to be a plus for GDP in the first half of 2017.
  • Up five weeks in a row. The S&P 500 had a late-day surge on Friday to close higher for the fifth consecutive week for the first time since coming off of the February 2016 lows. Momentum seems to stay in play after long weekly win streaks, as the past 10 times the S&P 500 was up five consecutive weeks, it was higher two weeks later nine times. Under the surface though there was a unique development, as the Dow Jones Utility Average had its best week since early July – up 4.1%. In fact, since the bull market started nearly eight years ago, that type of weekly move happens only 2.9% of the time. Three of the four days last week saw utilities gain at least 1%, which hasn’t happened since October 2015. Historically, utilities taking the lead has been a warning sign, as defensive names find a bid.
  • Dow does it again. It took a nice-sized rally the last 20 minutes of the day, but the Dow eked out a gain of 0.05% on Friday. This was the eleventh consecutive record high, with only one streak longer since 1900 (12 in a row in 1987). In terms of any winning streaks, not just record highs, the current streak of 11 in a row is the most since early 1992.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Durable Goods Orders and Shipments (Jan)
  • Dallas Fed Mfg. Report (Feb)
  • Kaplan (Hawk)
  • Eurozone: Money Supply and Bank Lending (Jan)
  • Germany: Retail Sales
  • UK House of Lords Begins Debate on Article 50

Tuesday

  • Chicago Area Purchasing Managers Report (Feb)
  • Richmond Fed Mfg. Report (Feb)
  • Williams (Dove)
  • Bullard (Dove)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Feb)
  • President Trump Addresses a Joint Session of Congress
  • China: Official Mfg. PMI (Feb)
  • China: Official Non-Mfg. PMI (Feb)
  • China: Caixin Mfg. PMI (Feb)

Wednesday

  • ISM Mfg. (Feb)
  • Vehicle Sales (Feb)
  • Beige Book
  • Kaplan (Hawk)
  • UK: Bank Lending and Money Supply (Jan)
  • Germany: CPI (Feb)
  • Canada: Bank of Canada Meeting (No Change Expected)

Thursday

  • Challenger Job Cut Announcements (Feb)
  • Mester (Hawk)
  • China: Caixin PMI Services (Feb)
  • Japan: Jobless Rate (Jan)

Friday

  • ISM Non Mfg. (Feb)
  • Yellen (Dove)
  • Fischer (Dove)

Sunday

  • China: National People’s Congress Meeting Begins in Beijing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] We expect mid-single-digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2017 consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance. We expect S&P 500 gains to be driven by: 1) a pickup in U.S. economic growth partially due to fiscal stimulus; 2) mid- to high-single-digit earnings gains as corporate America emerges from its year-long earnings recession; 3) an expansion in bank lending; and 4) a stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 – 19.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: February 13, 2017

© Spencer Platt/Getty Images

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. indexes aim for fresh record highs on global strength. Domestic markets look to add to last week’s gains after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% Friday with all but one sector finishing in the green; materials (+0.9%), energy (+0.8%), and industrials (+0.8%) led the way while consumer staples (-0.1%) lost ground. Overseas, stocks in Asia began the week higher as traders evaluated Japanese GDP data and a generally positive outcome of the U.S.-Japan summit over the weekend; the Shanghai Composite (+0.6%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) led major indexes in the region, while the Nikkei gained 0.4%. European markets are also moving up as the STOXX 600 is heading for its fifth consecutive gain. Elsewhere, the dollar touched a two-week high, WTI crude oil ($53.07/barrel) is pulling back after three days of gains, COMEX gold ($1227/oz.) is modestly lower, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries is up 3 basis points (0.03%) to 2.44%.

MacroView_header

  • Earnings update: strong growth, decent upside. With 71% of S&P 500 companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings are tracking to an 8.4% year-over-year increase, 2.3% above estimates on January 1, 2017 (Thomson Reuters data). Financials, materials, and technology have produced the most upside (all 3% or more) and financials the most growth (+20.8%), followed by technology at 10.9%. An earnings gain for all 11 S&P sectors remains possible with no sector down more than 1.5%. Revenue growth ticked up to 4.4%, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology. This week is another busy one with 55 S&P 500 companies slated to report results.

021317_earningsdashboard-01

  • Supportive guidance. S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2017 are down by a below-average 1.1% since earnings season began (the average decline is 2.5%). Industrials, financials and energy estimates have held up best, with energy actually seeing estimates rise. We continue to expect mid- to high-single-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 overall in 2017, and have seen nothing from corporate America during earnings season that would cause us to lose confidence in that forecast. The possibility exists that this forecast might prove too low given the potential for a policy boost later this year
  • Real estate by cycles. Evaluating real estate investments depends on three cycles: the economic cycle, the building cycle, and the interest rate cycle. We believe we are in a good spot in the economic cycle for attractive real estate returns, with steady job gains and an improving domestic economic growth outlook. The building cycle for real estate shows little sign of the type of overbuilding that has ended previous cycles. Finally, although we expect interest rates to rise, we expect increases to be modest and driven by improving economic growth and a gradual pickup in inflation, conditions historically favorable for real estate. Based on these metrics, our real estate outlook, including REITs, is favorable while a spike in interest rates remains a key risk.
  • Japan releases Q4 and 2016 gross domestic product (GDP) data overnight. The results were modestly disappointing as Q4 growth was 0.2% vs. an estimated 0.3%; for calendar year 2016, GDP growth was 1.0%, vs. consensus expectations of 1.1%. More telling than the narrow miss itself is the source of Japanese growth: mostly exports. Domestic consumption was flat for Q4 and represented about one half of the total economic growth in 2016. This may encourage Japanese authorities to weaken the yen further, though doing so may ire the Trump administration, which had previously labeled Japan’s trade surplus as unfair. Japanese stocks were stronger overnight, while the yen weakened 0.4%.
  • Busy calendar this week includes Yellen testimony. Fed Chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress highlights this week’s very busy economic and event calendar. In addition to Yellen, a half dozen other Fed officials are on the docket as markets gauge whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its March 2017 meeting. The data due out this week on January CPI, retail sales, leading indicators, housing starts and industrial production, along with February reports on Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing and housing market sentiment, will weigh on the Fed’s decision. Overseas, Q4 GDP reports are due out in the Eurozone, Poland, and Malaysia, along with the always timely ZEW report (February) in Germany. There are no major central bank meetings this week.
  • Happy Anniversary. The S&P 500 hit last year’s low on February 11 and has since gained more than 26%. Over the past year we’ve seen a massive global stock market rally, with financials, energy, and materials leading in the U.S. A year ago there were calls to “sell everything” and many high-profile cuts of year-end equity targets.

MonitoringWeek_header

Sunday

  • Japan: GDP (Q4)

Monday

  • China: CPI (Jan)

Tuesday

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Jan)
  • Fed Chair Yellen’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony to Congress-Senate
  • Kaplan (Hawk*)
  • Eurozone: GDP (Q4)
  • Germany: ZEW (Feb)

Wednesday

  • CPI (Jan)
  • Retail Sales (Jan)
  • NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)
  • Fed Chair Yellen’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony to Congress-House

Thursday

  • Housing Starts (Jan)
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Report (Feb)
  • G-20 Foreign Ministers meeting
  • Eurozonee: Account of the 01/19/17 European Central Bank meeting released

Friday

  • Leading Indicators (Jan)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: December 5, 2016

MarketUpdate_header

  • Global stocks shake off Italy vote; oil moves higher. U.S. indexes are moving higher in early trading, boosted by resilience in European equities after Italians voted down the country’s constitutional referendum on Sunday; rising WTI crude oil prices are also lending support. This comes after the S&P 500 failed to hold early gains in Friday’s session, as strength in defensive stocks was not enough to overcome weakness in the heavily weighted financials and consumer discretionary sectors. Overseas, Asian markets finished mostly lower; the Shanghai Composite (-1.2%) and the Hang Seng (-0.2%) both declined, whereas Japan’s Nikkei (-0.8%) took a breather after reaching 11-month highs last week. Stocks in Europe recovered from early selling pressure following Sunday’s vote in Italy; the STOXX 600 is up 0.4% mid-afternoon. Elsewhere, oil ($51.88/barrel) is tracking near 12-month highs on optimism around last week’s Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) deal, COMEX gold ($1163/oz.) is off 1.24%, and Treasuries are falling as the yield on the 10-year note trades at 2.44%.

MacroView_header

  • Quiet week ahead for data as investors mull election results in Europe. As is typically the case in the week after the release of the U.S. monthly jobs report, released last Friday, December 2, 2016, this week’s U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet, with today’s key release being the service sector Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reading for November. After a flurry of Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) speakers today, December 5, the unofficial “quiet period” for the Fed begins, ahead of the December 13-14, 2016 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Overseas, China will begin to report its November data set this week, and the central banks of Canada, Australia, and India all meet. With the Italian referendum and the Austrian election in the rear-view mirror, the key event in Europe this week is the European Central Bank‘s policy meeting on Thursday, December 8.
  • European equity markets, and the euro itself, are positive after yesterday’s voting. As widely expected, the Italian people voted against a referendum that would restructure how the country’s Senate would be elected, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. His resignation opens the door for the anti-European Five Star party to gain political strength, and perhaps even lead the next Italian government. Although this is potentially destabilizing, the markets had well priced in the outcome of this vote. At the same time, Austrian voters rejected an anti-European candidate from the far right as their president. Though the presidency in Austria is relatively weak, the election of a far-right candidate would have been seen as another threat to European political integration and the euro itself. This positive surprise has helped the markets (outside of Italian stocks) remain buoyant.
  • Beige Book recap. The themes in the November 2016 Beige Book are consistent with our view that the Fed will raise rates later this month. At +64, the November Beige Book 2016 reading is now back in the middle of the range it has been in since early 2012. Despite the elevated level of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and the outlook for the global economy, optimism on Main Street still reigns.
  • Irrational Exuberance Part 2? Twenty years ago today, Fed President Alan Greenspan gave his now famous Irrational Exuberance speech regarding over-valuations in the equity markets. Today, we examine if we are in another state of irrational exuberance. One concern is valuations are indeed higher than historical norms, although they are by no means near the euphoric levels of the late 1990s. On the fundamental front, the economy continues to show growth consistent with mid cycle, not late cycle. Last, overall market sentiment is showing many more bulls than we saw a month ago, but it still isn’t near the levels of excitement seen at previous market peaks.
  • Santa tends to come late. We all know that December is historically a strong month or equities, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% on average since 1950[1]. Here’s the catch: nearly all the gains tend to happen the second half of the month. Since 1950 on average, the S&P 500 has been flat as of December 15, rallying strongly during the second half of the month. The past 20 years, the S&P 500 has actually been down 0.4% as of mid month, before finishing 1.3% higher on average.

[1] Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • ISM Non Mfg. (Nov)
  • Dudley (Dove)
  • Evans (Dove)
  • Bullard (Hawk)

Tuesday

  • FOMC Quiet Period Begins

Wednesday

  • India: Reserve Bank of India Meeting (No Change Expected)
  • China: Imports and Exports (Nov)

Thursday

  • Flow of Funds (Q3)
  • Eurozone: European Central Bank Meeting (No Change Expected)
  • China: CPI (Nov)
  • Japan: Economy Watchers Survey (Nov)

Friday

  • Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (Dec)

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.