Market Update: June 5, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Solid Friday and holiday-shortened week for stocks… and more record highs. S&P 500 gained +0.36% on Friday, +0.96% for the week to end at a record high (2439.07). Nasdaq led major averages Friday (+0.94%) and for the week (+1.54%). Small caps beat mid and large (Russell indexes).
  • Tech drove Friday’s gains, led by semis and software. Financials hit by lower rates and yield curve flattening post jobs miss. Energy was the biggest decliner on falling oil prices.
  • Weaker dollar helped COMEX gold Friday (+0.8%) but not WTI crude oil (-1.4%)
  • 10-year yield dipped 0.06% to 2.15%, lowest closing level of 2017 and lowest since just after the election
  • Friday miss on U.S. nonfarm payrolls unlikely to sway Fed next week (details below)
  • Defensive tilt to weekly performance. Telecom topped weekly sector rankings, followed by healthcare. Oil fell > 4%; 10-year Treasury yield dropped 0.10%.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Stocks in Asia mostly lower amid relatively light news
  • In Europe, shares down (Euro Stoxx 600 -0.2%), continuing Friday slide
  • Weak sentiment after more terrorist attacks in London over the weekend
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.12
  • Commodities – Mostly lower, led by weakness in industrial metals and energy, with WTI oil near $47/bbl. COMEX gold (0.3%) adding to Friday’s gains at $1283, copper (-0.7%)
  • U.S. stock, Treasury yields up slightly.
  • U.S. dollar mixed vs major currencies

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Key Insights

  • Goldilocks environment. Steady but not booming job gains and inflation leveling off suggests economy is not too hot, not too cold. Wage gains are benign-average hourly earnings +2.5% YoY in Friday’s May jobs report. We’ve seen a mixed set of data recently: soft Q1 GDP, Q2 tracking near +3%, and earnings looking good. The Fed Beige Book cited most Fed districts continue to expand at a modest or moderate pace. Sounds like Goldilocks.
  • Any concern that the Fed may be behind the curve are misplaced, at least for now. The market is only pricing in a 44% chance of another rate hike in 2017 (after one in June), and just one hike in 2018.
  • An expensive stock market can stay expensive. The 17.7 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, where it stood in early 2015, is more reasonable than the trailing PE (20.7) for the S&P 500 but is still at the high end of the historical range. We reiterate valuations are not good predictors of near-term stock market moves, an important message for clients.

Macro Notes

  • Jobs miss doesn’t mean Fed pause. The economy added 138K new jobs in May, well below consensus expectations of 185K, with additional downward revisions for March and April; unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4% on lower labor participation rate. The report may give the Fed some pause, but given the overall backdrop a June hike remains far more likely than not.
  • The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI index was below 50 when reported last week, but overnight the services PMI was 52.8, much better than last month’s 51.5. The overall composite number of 51.5 suggests a continued, but slowing, expansion in the Chinese economy. We expect the government to continue to try to reduce leverage in the economy, but not to engage in any major reforms until after the Communist Party meeting this fall.

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  • Politics and central banks highlight the week ahead. Politics and central banks highlight the coming week, with Thursday, June 8 of particular importance as it brings the U.K. general election, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and testimony of former FBI Director James Comey. Data of note in the U.S. includes durable goods and Services Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Overseas, Eurozone and Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Chinese inflation and money supply data are due out.

Monday

  • Nonfarm Productivty (Q1)
  • Unit Labor Costs (Q1)
  • ISM Non-Mfg. Composite (May)
  • Factory Orders (Apr)
  • Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
  • Cap Goods Shipments & Orders (Apr)
  • UK: Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Services PMI (May)

Wednesday

  • Eurozone: GDP (Q1)
  • Japan: GDP (Q1)
  • Japan: Current Account Balance (Apr)
  • Japan: Trade Balance (Apr)

Thursday

  • Germany: Industrial Production (Apr)
  • UK: General Election, 2017
  • ECB: Draghi
  • Japan: Machine Tool Orders (May)
  • China: CPI & PPI (May)

Friday

  • Wholesale Sales & Inventories (Apr)
  • France: Industrial Production (Apr)
  • UK: Industrial Production (Apr)
  • UK: Trade Balance (Apr)
  • China: Money Supply and New Yuan Loans (May)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC

Market Update: May 22, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • After hitting a new record on Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index sold off -1.8% Wednesday on fears the growing controversies around the Trump Administration will cause a delay in the pro-growth policy agenda, including tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.
  • Stocks stabilized on Thursday and Friday, recovering ~1.0%, but pared gains both days going into the close of trading.
  • For the week, major U.S. equity indexes fell ~-0.5% as investors’ focus switched from political headline risks to positive fundamentals supporting economic and profit growth.
  • Financials were the worst performing sector (-1.0%) on the week, followed by industrials (-0.3%); defensives and dividend paying sectors in favor, with real estate (+1.2%), consumer staples (+0.5%) and utilities (+0.5%) leading.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady around 2.24%, while the U.S. dollar lost -1.6% for its worst week since July.
  • Despite expectations for a June rate hike, the market does not fear an aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • COMEX Gold was +2.0% on the week; copper also climbed 2.0% Friday.
  • WTI crude oil rose +2.0% to $50/barrel on Friday, +5.0% on the week in anticipation of further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cuts at meeting in Vienna on 5/25.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Stocks in Asia were mostly positive as MSCI EMG had biggest climb (+0.90%) in two weeks, led by commodity producers.
  • North Korea fired another missile, yet Korean won moved higher on naming of new finance minister.
  • Japanese shares were boosted by weaker yen and exports rose for a 5th consecutive month in April, up 7.5% year over year.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed at its highest level since July 2015.
  • Australian stocks rose despite S&P reducing credit ratings for many of their banks on concerns over property prices and potential rise in credit losses.
  • In Europe, shares were up ~0.2% with gains in real estate, energy and mining shares.
  • German bunds slipped to 0.38% on the 10-year and euro held around $1.11.
  • European Union ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss Greek bailout and refine plans for Brexit negotiations.
  • In UK election, the Tory lead over Labour has narrowed considerably, from almost 20 points last month to just 10 points this morning.
  • Commodities – WTI crude oil +0.9% to $51.10/barrel; COMEX gold slipped to $1254/oz. while copper is higher by 0.20%.
  • Major U.S. indexes up slightly along with Treasury yields as investors judge recent selloff on political turmoil may have been excessive.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • U.S. fiscal policy needs to become primary growth driver for 2018. President Trump releases his administration’s budget plans Tuesday, including economic projections and spending plans for federal agencies and entitlement programs. Congressional Republicans must first agree on a budget if they want to achieve tax reform this year; intraparty fighting must cease if Republicans want to maintain majority after next year’s midterms. History is littered with examples of “wave” elections after one party assumes power. However, if Republicans see an expiration date on their majority; similar to Democrats in 2010 and Republicans in 2006, these developments may result in more legislation passing. We are likely to see an infrastructure plan in the coming weeks and the Senate appears to have progressed on tax reform plan, which doesn’t include BAT or removal of corporate interest deduction.
  • Despite paring losses Thursday and Friday, risk-off vibe still apparent with dollar weakness, yield curve flattening, VIX higher, and bank, small cap and transport stocks all underperforming. However, there is little stress evident in U.S. credit markets with credit default swaps, investment grade and high yield spreads all contained. The economy continues to benefit from pent up demand in capital expenditures, housing and an inventory rebuild from a Q1 drawdown.

Macro Notes

  • Unofficial last week of an excellent earnings season. With just 28 S&P 500 companies left to report results, S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter is tracking to a very strong +15.2% year-over-year increase, 5% above prior (4/1/17) estimates (thanks to a 75% beat rate), and +11.1% excluding energy. Technology jumped ahead of financials and materials last week into second place in the earnings growth rankings (energy is first), while industrials, energy and materials have produced the most upside to prior estimates. This week 19 S&P 500 companies are slated to report.

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  • Guidance may be the most impressive part of earnings season. We were very impressed that company outlooks were positive enough to keep estimates for the balance of 2017 firm, amidst heightened policy uncertainty and the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter. Consumer discretionary, industrials, technology, financials and healthcare sectors have all seen consensus estimates for 2017 and 2018 rise, as has the S&P 500, over the past month; and consensus estimates reflect a solid 9% increase in earnings over the next four quarters versus the prior four.
  • This week, we try to help investors stay focused on fundamentals. Market participants became increasingly worried that the Trump administration’s agenda was in danger last week following the latest news surrounding the investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia. After its biggest one-day drop in nearly a year on Wednesday, the S&P 500 recovered nicely Thursday and Friday to end the week less than 1% off its all-time closing high. We don’t know what will happen with the Russia investigation, but we think we have a pretty good handle on the basic fundamentals of the economy and corporate profits, which look good right now, tend to drive stocks over time, and are where we think investors should be focused.
  • This week, we also take a look at inflation. With the unemployment rate unlikely to go much lower, Fed watchers are becoming increasingly focused on the other half of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, low and stable inflation. Despite disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter, consensus forecasts indicate expectations of better growth over the rest of the year, which would likely be accompanied by an uptick in inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. However, there are still many factors that limit the possibility of runaway inflation. Better growth would likely give us enough inflation for the Fed to follow through on raising rates twice more in 2017, but we don’t expect inflation to reach a level that would push the Fed to move faster.
  • What does the large drop on Wednesday mean? The S&P 500 Index fell 1.8% on Wednesday and has bounced back the past two days. Nonetheless, Wednesday was the worst one-day drop since September and given it happened within 0.5% of all-time highs, the question is: What does a large drop near all-time highs mean?

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  • This week’s domestic economic calendar includes data on preliminary purchasing manager surveys (manufacturing and services) from Markit, housing, trade, durable goods, and revised first quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The Fed will remain in focus with minutes from the May 3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due out Wednesday (May 24) and several Fed speakers on the docket-a roughly even balance of hawks and doves. We believe the market is correctly pricing in a June 14 rate hike. Overseas economic calendars are busy with a series of data in Europe, including first quarter German and U.K. GDP, German business confidence, and Eurozone purchasing manager surveys; and in Japan (trade, manufacturing and inflation data). Political troubles in Brazil may continue to weigh on emerging market indexes.

 Monday

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr)

 Tuesday

  • New Home Sales (Apr)
  • Richmond Fed Report (May)
  • Germany: GDP (Q1)
  • Germany: Ifo (May)
  • France: Mfg. Confidence (May)
  • BOJ: Kuroda
  • Japan: All Industry Activity Index (Mar)
  • Japan: Machine Tool Orders (Apr)
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Mfg. PMI (May)

 Wednesday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (May)
  • Markit Services PMI (May)
  • Existing Home Sales (Apr)
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (May 3)
  • France: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Germany: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Canada: BOC Rate Decision (May 24)

 Thursday

  • Advance Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
  • Wholesale Inventories (Apr)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 20)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • Italy: Industrial Orders & Sales (Mar)
  • Japan: CPI (Apr)
  • Japan: Tokyo CPI (May)

 Friday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • Personal Consumption (Q1)
  • Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
  • Capital Goods Shipments & Orders (Apr)
  • Italy: Business Confidence in the Mfg. Sector (May)
  • Italy: G7 Leaders Meet in Sicily

Saturday

  • BOJ: Kuroda

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

The Truth About Present-Day Retirement

Times have changed and so has retirement! Nowadays, retirement is no longer what people once expected. If you’re preparing to retire, the way your parents did, you might be stuck in the past and need to face present-day reality. So, what has changed in the last 10 years? Well, the factors below will shift your perspective about how you should be preparing for retirement!

First, with all the advancements of medicine and technology that we’ve had in this last decade, it’s no surprise that people are living longer. In the past, living 30 years after retirement, was actually outside the norm of an adult’s lifespan. Therefore, the 4% safe withdrawal rate that many financial planners followed was a valid rule of thumb. This guideline told retirees that if they took out only 4% of their assets and adjusted to inflation in their retirement portfolio, the risk of running out of money 30 years after they retired was very low.

But it’s no longer the case! If you’re saving conservatively for an amount that would last you around 30 years, disregard the 4% rule. People are now living past the age of 95 and a good amount of them are even retiring early. The average portfolio return for the standard investor has also decreased and is subject to more risk from the impacts of market volatility. The chances of outliving your nest egg is a lot higher these days.

Not only are people starting to live longer, the divorce rate is also significantly higher. You can no longer assume that you’ll still be married once you retire! How is that an issue, you ask? Well, a divorce could be a serious stumbling block for your retirement plan since your income might be cut in half during your golden years. Not to mention, your retirement assets might be split among you and your ex-spouse. Because of a divorce, you’ll most likely have to change your retirement strategy and lifestyle.

Have you noticed that everything costs a lot more than it used to? Some of this increase can be a result of natural inflation in prices. But, according to our government, inflation is very tame and under control. Yet, the cost of everyday goods is a lot higher and will keep outpacing inflation throughout your retirement. And it is not just everyday expenses that you’ll need to factor into your budget, there’s the added healthcare costs as well. Given the fact that there’s a good chance you’ll live longer, there are more medical issues you’ll be susceptible to. Not to mention the fact that your chances of getting injured or breaking something will dramatically increase. This means a lot more medical bills and trips to the doctor’s office! On top of that, the fact that a third of us will require some sort of assistance or nursing care, and you can see how retirement costs can skyrocket! Basically, retirement is not as cheap as it used to be.

Finally, if you think about your assets, it’s safe to assume that your home is your most valuable one. You may be able to sell it at a profit, assuming that the value has increased over the years. However, that might be a misconception! In order to determine whether or not you’ll actually get a return on your investment, you’ll need to adjust for inflation and taxes. Also, if we experience any major volatility in the housing market like we did in the past, you might not be able to get as much money for your property as you expected. Like all markets, the real estate market can be unpredictable.

So, with all of these changes, how can one successfully save for retirement? Well, my biggest recommendation for every pre-retiree that I talk to is, BE PREPARED! It’s always better to set your retirement savings goal beyond your expected amount, than below it. With the unpredictability of divorce, age, and the financial markets, it’s better to be safe than sorry. If you aim higher and save more, then your risk of running out of money during retirement will be a lot lower. Part of being prepared is to work closely with a financial planner that can guide your through your Golden Years. This ‘financial coach’ should be able to point out pitfalls that you might not have even thought of. It’s their job to make sure that you’re on track and don’t fall victim to your own wrongdoings. As well as to create a retirement game plan and an investment road-map that takes taxes and your risk tolerance into consideration.

Being prepared for retirement can be a daunting task. Especially given all the unknowns out there. But with proper preparation and guidance from a financial professional, you can glide into retirement knowing full well that you’re ready for the challenge!

Here’s Why Tony Robbins Tells Millennials to Buy a House, Not a Home

© Credit.com Blog

For generations past, home ownership was a significant rite of passage that signaled stability, commitment, and, often, prosperity.

But, in this as in so many other cases, millennials are different.

As of 2015, adults under age 35 made up 19 percent of U.S. households but less than 10 percent of homeowners, according to a report released by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In fact, in 2015 home ownership for that group fell to a historic low of 31 percent.

Entrepreneur and bestselling author Tony Robbins says that, while millennials might be missing out on the social upsides of home ownership, real estate is not the best investment they could be making

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“One of the weakest performers [is] your own personal real estate, because it doesn’t provide much income,” Robbins says. “It’s an inflation hedge. You do a little better than inflation, and you can have your own home, so there’s a psychological, emotional benefit.”

Instead, millennials in a position to buy property should be considering how to do so in a way that will provide them additional cash flow, he says.

“If you can own real estate, real estate with an income is the one [form of] real estate that’s more valuable,” says Robbins.

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Opinions on the imperative of millennial home ownership vary.

Self-made millionaire Grant Cardone tells CNBC that home owners are forced to continue to spend unceasingly, and that he regrets buying a house at age 30.

“Unless you have 20 million bucks in the bank, in cash, you have no business buying a house,” says Cardone.

In personal finance classic “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” author Robert Kiyosaki notes that houses should be viewed as a liability, as opposed to an asset, and points out that it’s not a given that a home will appreciate in value.

“I am not saying don’t buy a house. What I am saying is that you should understand the difference between an asset and a liability,” Kiyosaki writes. “When I want a bigger house, I first buy assets that will generate the cash flow to pay for the house.”

Robbins emphasizes that real estate investing doesn’t need to entail keys and a welcome mat.

“You can [invest] through a REIT. You don’t have to buy everything, you get a piece of all these things,” Robbins says.

But whether millennials choose to spend their nest egg on a nest, or begin focusing on a portfolio instead, Robbins says the worst mistake is making no investment at all: “The most important thing, I think, for millennials, is to get in the game.”

 

 

Written By: Kathryn Dill
Source: CNBC

 

Market Update: April 10, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks move higher to start week. U.S. equities are modestly higher this morning as investors look ahead to the start of first quarter earnings season, with several tier one banks set to report later this week. This after major indexes shook off a lackluster jobs report and pushed higher through midday, only to give back gains late in the session; the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. The telecom (+0.2%) and healthcare (+0.2%) sectors clung to modest gains, while financials (-0.3%) and energy (-0.4%) stocks were among the days’ laggards. Overseas, investors are focusing on political turmoil stemming from Syrian incidents amid light economic data; Asian markets were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (+0.7%) advancing, and the Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) moving lower; while European indexes are near flat amid range-bound trading. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($52.80/barrel) continues to climb on regional turmoil in the middle east, COMEX gold ($1250/oz.) is lower, and Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.37% on the 10-year.

MacroView_header

  • Over the last month, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index (CCI) fell 20 points to 235. The CCI remains in the middle of the range it has held since 2010. Falling shipping traffic and an increase in initial jobless claims off of near 40-year lows were the main detractors from the CCI in the last month, while fed fund rate expectations and credit spreads were the main positive contributors.
  • Inflation and highlights from this week’s economic calendar. Despite Friday’s holiday, retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI) will be reported on that day (producer prices come Thursday) and will highlight what is otherwise a quiet week of data in the U.S. Two reports that deserve some attention, however, are National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) which will provide some insights into the policy-driven rise in business confidence and the job market, where Friday’s weak payroll employment report raised some concerns. Overseas, we get Chinese and Japanese trade data and G7 Finance Ministers will meet, while geopolitical risk will remain in focus following last week’s military strike in Syria.
  • S&P 500 poised for double-digit earnings gain. The S&P 500 is likely to produce double-digit year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter (Thomson-tracked consensus is +10.1%) as earnings season gets underway this week. Earnings growth would reach 12-14%, the best since 2011, should companies beat estimates by the average 4.1% seen over the last five years according to FactSet. Last year’s first quarter marked the trough of the earnings recession, setting up an easy comparison, though we have several other reasons to be optimistic. Growth is expected to be powered by energy’s rebound from the oil downturn that battered the sector early last year while solid macro data in recent months is also supportive.
  • Fed balance sheet. Minutes from the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released last Wednesday, signaled that the Fed intends to reduce its sizable $4.2 trillion balance sheet. We’ll analyze the options available to the Fed to accomplish a reduction of this size. In addition to how the balance sheet was built, we look at the structure of the assets within the portfolio for clues as to how the normalization may impact markets.
  • Continued strong breadth. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite Advance/Decline (A/D) line broke out to new highs last week. This is one of our favorite technical indicators, as it shows how many stocks are advancing versus declining at any given time. In other words, it measures overall market breadth. To see new highs occur suggests there is a good deal of investor participation and the overall equity rally could continue to have legs. Also, the NYSE A/D line broke out to new highs one year ago this week, well ahead of the eventual S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) new highs in July 2016.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Industrial Production (Feb)

Wednesday

  • Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 1)

Friday

  • Banks Open, Markets Closed
  • CPI (Mar)
  • Retail Sales (Mar)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. 

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: March 6, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Equities move lower to begin week. U.S. stocks are moving lower in early trading, following their European counterparts on little news. The major averages all managed to squeak out slight gains on Friday; the S&P 500’s 0.1% gain was led by financials and healthcare, which both closed up 0.4%. Overnight in Asia, stocks finished mostly higher with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei (-0.5%) as the yen strengthened; the STOXX Europe 600 is lower by 0.5% in afternoon trading. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is near flat at 2.48% as market-implied expectations of a Fed rate hike in March are near 86%, WTI crude oil ($53.25/barrel) is slightly lower, and COMEX gold ($1231/oz.) is climbing 0.4%.

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  • Brexit, EU summit, China forecasts, Fed “quiet period”, and February jobs report highlight week ahead. Other than the February employment report (due out this Friday, March 10)  it’s a relatively quiet week for U.S. economic data. It’s also the unofficial quiet period for the Federal Reserve ahead of the March 14-15 FOMC meeting. The overseas calendar is chock full of potentially market-moving events, including the EU leaders summit, a potential House of Lords vote on Brexit, the European Central Bank meeting, and a few key reports on China’s economy in February.
  • Beige Book. This week, we’ll examine the Fed’s latest Beige Book, looking for signs of any impact from the new Trump administration, an overheating labor market, rising wages, and inflation ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
  • Corporate sentiment improved again in our latest Corporate Beige Book. Sentiment improved among corporate executives based on our analysis of fourth quarter earnings conference call transcripts. Not surprisingly, policy was a popular topic, as corporate tax reform, infrastructure and regulation saw big jumps in the number of mentions. Currency and China also continued to garner a lot of attention, while energy and Brexit faded. The solid fourth quarter results coupled with improved sentiment from corporate executives support our expectation of mid-to-high single digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2017.
  • The Chinese National People’s Congress began its annual meeting on Sunday. Nothing shocking has come out of the meeting so far, though little was expected. Official economic growth forecasts have been cut to 6.5%. The focus of the meeting has been on economic stability, including a reduction in monetary growth targets and efforts to reduce China’s bad debt problem. The most notable change in language related to calls for further currency liberalization. A more market-oriented currency policy suggests potential weakening of the yuan, which would run counter to China’s long-term political goals, as well as increase the likelihood of China being labeled a “currency manipulator” by the Trump administration.
  • Make that six in a row. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% for the second consecutive week, and managed to close at a new weekly all-time high. In the process, it closed higher for the sixth consecutive week for the first time since a six-week win streak off of the February 2016 lows. The last time it was up seven weeks in a row was late 2014. Here’s the catch, the S&P 500 was up only 4.9% the past six weeks – making this one of the weakest six-week win streaks ever. Given the historically small daily trading ranges recently, this shouldn’t come as a big surprise. You have to go back to late 2013 for the last time there was a smaller return during a six-week win streak.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Kashkari (Dove)

 Tuesday

  • China: Imports and Exports (Feb)
  • Japan: Economy Watchers Survey

 Wednesday

  • ADP Employment (Feb)
  • China: CPI (Feb)

Thursday

  • Initial Claims (3/5)
  • Challenger Job Cut Announcements (Feb)
  • Household Net Worth and Flow of Funds (Q4)
  • European Union leaders Summit in Brussels Begins
  • Eurozone: European Central Bank Meeting (No Change Expected)

Friday

  • Employment Report (Feb)
  • European Union leaders Summit in Brussels Continues

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: February 21, 2017

© Susan Walsh/AP Photo

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stock advance continues following record-setting week. U.S. stocks are moving higher in early trading as markets reopen following the Presidents’ Day holiday. All three major averages ended the prior week at record highs; the S&P 500 (+0.2%) advanced modestly as telecom (+0.9%) was the best performing sector. Equities in Asia closed mostly higher overnight amid a quiet session, though the Hang Seng lost 0.8%. European markets are seeing broad strength in afternoon trading (STOXX Europe 600 +0.5%) as investors sift through PMI data that came in mostly above expectations; the U.K.’s FTSE is the exception (-0.1%) as disappointing earnings in the banking sector drag it lower. Finally, Treasuries are losing ground as the yield on the 10-year note is up to 2.44%, WTI crude oil ($54.78/barrel) is up 1.9%, and COMEX gold ($1234/oz.) is slipping 0.4%.

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  • Treasury prices initially lower, then rebound late week. Last week began with Chinese consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data rising much more than analyst estimates, setting the tone for more inflationary pressure on U.S. Treasuries. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen, in her semi-annual testimony before Congress, stated that it would be “unwise to wait too long to hike interest rates.” This moved the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury higher by 8 basis points (0.08%) to 2.52%, as investors began to price in a March rate hike. Thursday’s session saw a slight rebound in prices following a move lower in European yields as the Greek bond market stabilized. This week, investors will be watching the economic calendar for more evidence of inflation.
  • Inflation expectations edge up. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate finished last week slightly higher, moving from 2.01% to 2.02%. Importantly, the breakeven rate is above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. This week, we take a deeper look at Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and why, despite solid performance relative to Treasuries in the second half of 2016, there may be further opportunity within the asset class for investors seeking credit and inflation protection.
  • Municipals supply lower on the week. Muni supply, as measured by the Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply data, remains below the 10-year average of approximately $11 billion, coming in at $7.5 billion last week. Supply is expected to remain light due to the holiday-shortened week. However, March and April supply is expected to grow as the Bloomberg fixed rate calendar supply data already shows an increase in supply from $6 billion on Thursday, February 16 to $7.6 billion today.
  • Investment-grade corporates spread breaches 1.2% level. As measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, this level had provided resistance since late January. As equities made a decisive move higher over the last two weeks, investment-grade corporates have followed suit. Equity strength, investors’ demand for high-quality yield (above that of Treasuries), and increased prospects for corporate tax reform were all contributed to the spread contraction.
  • Earnings dipped last week but estimates still holding firm. Q4 2016 earnings for the S&P 500 are now tracking to a 7.5% year-over-year increase (as measured by Thomson), down about 1% over the past week on insurance industry declines. Financials and technology are still on course for solid double-digit earnings gains. While a 7.5% growth rate is certainly nothing to sneeze at, the better news may be that consensus 2017 estimates are down only 1.1% since earnings season began (and still up over 10% versus 2016), buoyed by flat or positive revisions to financials, energy and industrials estimates. Interestingly, these sectors are particularly policy sensitive, suggesting policy hopes are seeping into analyst and management team outlooks.

021717_earningsdashboard-01

  • Leading indicators rise. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of indicators that tends to lead overall economic activity, rose a strong 0.6% month over month in January, beating the expected 0.4% increase and better than December’s also-strong 0.5% gain. The LEI is now up 2.5% year over year, a rate of change that historically has been accompanied by low risk of recession in the next year.
  • Domestic oil markets in focus. The addition to U.S. supply from shale deposits over the past decade is well known, but demand has changed as well, influenced heavily by our choice of vehicles as well as fuel efficiency standards. President Trump has signed a number of executive orders related to energy, most notably on the Keystone XL Pipeline. However, the administration has not weighed in on other issues, such as fuel economy standards. Any policy changes, as well as how they are enacted, could influence both U.S. supply and demand considerations.
  • European economic growth accelerates. A series of PMI data was released in Europe overnight, pointing to growth increasing at a faster rate than expected. Data from the two largest countries, France and Germany, were better than expected. The Eurozone composite reading (including services and manufacturing) registered 56, the highest reading in 70 months. Inflation in France remained contained at 1.3%, though many in Europe believe that the stronger economy will lead to higher inflation data in the near future.
  • More new highs. Equities staged a late-day rally on Friday to close at new record highs. In fact, the S&P 500 closed at its ninth record high for 2017. This is halfway to the 18 from 2016 and nearly to the 10 record highs made during 2015. Although no one knows how many more new highs will be made this year, it is important to note that they tend to happen in clusters potentially lasting decades. Going back to the Great Depression[1], there have been two long clusters of new highs – from 1954 to 1968 and from 1980 to 2000. The years in between were marked by secular bear markets and a lack of new highs. Could the current streak of new highs that started in 2013 last for many more years?
  • Four in a row. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% last week, closing higher for the fourth consecutive week for the first time since July 2016. The last time it made it to five weeks in a row was coming off of the February 2016 lows. Of the last 12 times the S&P 500 has been up four consecutive weeks, 10 of those times it has closed even higher two weeks later, so momentum can continue in the near term. The S&P 500 has been up only 3.5% in the current streak – the weakest four-week win streak in nearly five years. Going back to 1990, when the S&P 500 is up four weeks in a row, but with a total gain less than 4%, the average return the following two weeks is twice as strong (1.0% versus 0.5%) as the average return after all four-week win streaks.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Feb)
  • Harker (Hawk)
  • Kashkari (Dove)
  • Eurozone: Markit PMI (Feb)
  • China: Property Prices (Jan)

 Wednesday

  • Existing Home Sales (Jan)
  • FOMC Minutes
  • Germany: Ifo (Feb)
  • OPEC Technical Meeting in Vienna
  • Brazil: Central Bank Meeting (Rate Cut Expected)

 Friday

  • New Home Sales (Jan)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1928 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: January 17, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. markets begin week lower. Stocks opened on a weak note this morning despite upbeat results from Morgan Stanley and United Health. Markets were closed yesterday for the holiday, but the Dow ended flat on Friday while the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq (+0.5%) posted modest gains. S&P sector movements were also muted, driven largely by a rebound in interest rates, as financials (+0.6%) was the best performer and real estate (-0.3%) the worst. Overseas Monday night, the Nikkei shed over 1.5%, dropping to a new low on the year, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.2%) posted a minor gain. European shares are mixed in afternoon trading, although comments from Prime Minister Theresa May have boosted the British pound and lowered the FTSE 100 by 1%. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($52.76/barrel) is up 0.7%, COMEX gold ($1214/oz.) is up 1.5% on precious metals demand, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down to 2.33%.

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  • Treasury yields move higher through Thursday but finish the week flat. Treasury yields fluctuated on the week with the yield on the 10-year note starting and ending the week just under 2.4%. Prices moved higher based on the success of Wednesday’s $20 billion 10-year Treasury auction, which saw foreign buyers (indirect bidders) buy 70.5% of the auction. Friday opened weaker as Thursday’s $12 billion 30-year auction was not as well received as the 10-year auction, but foreign participation was still significant at 66.7%.
  • Yield curve steepens for week. The 2-year Treasury fell by 1 basis point to 1.21%, while the 10-year finished the week unchanged. This brings the 2-year/10-year slope, a measure of the steepness of the yield curve to 121 basis points (1.21%), higher on the week by 1 basis point (0.01%). A steeper, more positive yield curve generally indicates that the market anticipates higher interest rates and more growth. As such, investors require more yield as they move longer on the yield curve. The 2-year/30-year steepness was also wider on the week by 4 basis points (0.04%) to 180 basis points (1.80%).
  • Inflation expectations remain range bound near 2%. Inflation expectations ticked up slightly from 1.95% on Monday to 1.99% on Friday. This is near the highest reading year-to-date, however the number has yet to hold above the Federal Reserve Bank’s 2% target. We continue to monitor oil prices, which could drive headline inflation above 2% over the course of the year.
  • Municipals outperformed U.S. Treasuries on the week. Municipal bonds, as measured by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index, outperformed U.S. Treasuries as measured by the Barclays US Treasury Index on the week. The 10-year muni finished the week lower in yield by 5 basis points (0.05%) to 2.28%, down from 2.33% on Monday. The longer 30-year maturity also finished lower in yield by 5 basis points. Declining municipal yields led to 10-year and 30-year AAA municipal to Treasury ratios that are on the expensive side of their recent range, finishing the week at 93% and 99%, respectively.
  • High-yield spread holds below the 4% level. High-yield spreads ended the week just below 4% as measured by the Barclays High Yield Index. The additional yield offered by high yield bonds remains attractive in a low-yield environment, though high-yield spreads are pricing in a lot of good news, leaving less room for error for the asset class.
  • Preferred stocks rebound. Positive earnings expectations for financials (which are heavy issuers of preferred stocks) and lower rates helped the Merrill Lynch Preferred Stock Hybrid Index continue its recent uptrend last week, returning 0.7% to beat the Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by 0.5%. Year-to-date, preferreds, as measured by the index have returned 2.6%, regaining some strength after a weak fourth quarter that returned -4.6%.
  • Manufacturing still moving higher. Aided by a turnaround in oil production, a relatively stable dollar, and better economic performance overseas, manufacturing began to stabilize at midyear 2016, and over the past few months, the data suggest some modest reacceleration. The January 2017 readings on the Empire State (+7) manufacturing survey matched expectations and the December 2016 reading. The readings on the Empire State Manufacturing Index in the past few months were the highest in nearly two years. Although manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of economic activity and employment in the U.S., it has a much larger impact on S&P 500 earnings, and therefore, equity markets.
  • Is small cap strength sustainable? Small caps have surged since Election Day, with the Russell 2000 Index outperforming the large cap S&P 500 by 8.5% since November 8, 2016. Given the magnitude of small cap outperformance, investors with previously established small cap stock allocations may want to consider waiting for a dip before adding to positions. The relative strength has been driven by several election-related factors, including prospects for tax reform, deregulation, and President-elect Trump’s focus on encouraging U.S. manufacturing.
  • First busy week of earnings on tap. With results from 29 companies in the books, S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking to 6.2%, driven by financials and technology. The earnings beat rate is a solid 72%, while revenue results have brought more misses than hits so far with a beat rate of 34%. Another 34 companies report this week (January 17-20), dominated by financials and industrials.

011717_earningsdashboard-01

  • How slow is slow? Going back to 1950, the +7.8% rally in the Dow from the Election through year end was the third-strongest rally ever. Yet, over the past month the Dow has held close to the 20,000 level, unable to break above. At the same time, it isn’t selling off either – instead trapped in an incredibly tight range. In fact, using closing prices back to 1900, the Dow has traded in a range of only 1.07% over the past 21 trading days, which is the tightest monthly range ever. Looking at reliable intraday data going back to 1970, the range over the past month has been only 1.42% – again the smallest monthly range ever. Lastly, this is so rare because the Dow has closed within 1.5% of its all-time high for 45 consecutive days – one of the 10-longest such streaks ever.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Empire State Manufacturing Report (Jan)
  • Dudley* (Dove)
  • Germany: ZEW Survey (Jan)
  • World Economic Forum begins at Davos, Switzerland

Wednesday

  • CPI (Dec)
  • Kashkari* (Dove)
  • Yellen* (Dove)
  • China: Property Prices (Dec)

Thursday

  • Philadelphia Fed Index (Jan)
  • Yellen* (Dove)
  • Eurozone: European Central Bank Meeting (No Change Expected)
  • China: GDP (Q4)
  • China: Industrial Production (Dec)
  • China: Retail Sales (Dec)
  • China: Fixed Asset Investment (Dec)

Friday

  • Inauguration Day
  • Harker* (Hawk)
  • U.K.: Retail Sales (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: January 3, 2017

© Provided by CNBC

MarketUpdate_header

  • Oil spike, China data boost stocks. Major U.S. indexes are moving higher to start the new year, fueled by a rise in oil as the commodity hit fresh 18-month highs earlier today with a supply cut among major producers coming into effect. Looking back, the S&P 500 closed out 2016 with a 12.0% total return, even as it fell 0.5% on Friday; financials was the only sector to rise on the last trading day of the year, clawing out a 0.2% gain on the heels of strength in the Treasury market. Technology (-1.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) were Friday’s worst performers. Overnight, upbeat manufacturing data out of China gave both the Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) and the Hang Seng (+0.7%) a boost; Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday. European shares are also broadly higher in afternoon trading, particularly mining and energy stocks, which are benefiting from the news out of China. Meanwhile, COMEX gold ($1155/oz.) is modestly higher, WTI crude oil ($54.12/barrel) is up 0.7%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is at 2.47%.

MacroView_header

  • A volatile year results in little change for Treasury yields. It was a volatile year for Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield closing as low as 1.36% in July and as high as 2.60% in December, but for all the volatility, yields didn’t move much for the full year. In the final week of 2016, the 10-year yield moved lower to close out the year at 2.45%, just 15 basis points (0.15%) higher than its closing yield of 2.30% on 12/31/15. The 30-year Treasury, which also traded within a wide range during the year closed the year out at 3.08%, an even slimmer 5 basis points (0.05%) above its 12/31/15 closing yield of 3.03%.
  • Similar story for yield curve. Yield curve steepness, as measured by the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, also closed near year-end 2015 levels, following a similar trend as the Treasury yields that it is based on. The curve spent much of the first half of the year flattening, before reversing later in the year. Improving economic and inflation expectations post-election helped steepen the curve in November, before it moved slightly lower toward year-end, closing at 1.24%, just 0.03% higher than year-end 2015 levels. A steepening yield curve means that long-term yields are moving higher relative to short-term yields, indicating improving expectations for economic growth and/or higher inflation.
  • Inflation expectations higher for year. One thing that did move higher during 2016 was inflation expectations. Implied expectations, as measured by the difference between the 10-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) yields, closed the year at 1.94%, still below the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) 2% target, but much improved from lows of 1.2% reached in February.
  • Outflows continue to be a headwind for municipals. Municipal bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index, managed a positive return of 0.38% last week, though they saw another week of underperformance versus Treasuries (0.55% for Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Government–Treasury Index). Municipal bond fund outflows continued to be a headwind for the sector, with $4.5 billion leaving the asset class for the week ending 12/21/16. January has historically been a time of seasonal strength for the municipal market, as lowered supply and reinvestment demand combine to improve the market’s supply/demand balance, though it remains to be seen if fund outflows will derail the trend this year.
  • 2017 gets off to a quick start this week. Data include key December reports on Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (both manufacturing and non-manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Indexes, vehicle sales, ADP employment, layoff announcements, and of course the December employment reprt, owhich is due out on Friday, January 6. Four Fed speakers are on the docket this week, including 2017 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voter Charles Evans (Chicago), and the Fed will release the minutes of its December 13-14 FOMC meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, January 4.
  • Earnings outlook remains bright. Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2017-up 12% over 2016 based on analysts’ consensus estimates-have inched marginally higher over the past month to near $133 per share, while estimates for soon-to-be-reported fourth quarter 2016 earnings growth, at +6%, have held firm. We believe our forecast for mid-to-high single digit earnings growth in 2017 is achievable based on the potential for higher economic growth, stable corporate profit margins, and rebounding energy profits. Potential policy actions, most notably corporate tax reform (including repatriation of overseas cash), offer the possibility of upside, while risks include trade protectionism and further strength in the U.S. dollar.
  • Welcome to January. After the S&P 500 gained 1.8% in December to finish off a nice year of equity gains in 2016, we now turn the page to January. Since 1950[1], January has been up 1% on average–ranking it right near the middle of all months by performance (sixth out of 12). What is worth noting is January has been weak recently, falling each of the past three years. Be aware though, that going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has never been down in January for four consecutive years. Over the past 10 years, January has been down 1.7% on average, ranking worst of all months.
  • European inflation grows. European inflation came in somewhat greater than expected. German inflation rose 1.7%, still below the European Central Bank’s 2% target, but greater than the 1.3% increase expected. Some of the increase in inflation, not just in Germany but globally, results from oil prices being approximately 50% greater than they were one year ago. However, inflation was higher than expected across many sectors of the German economy, not just the energy sector. In contrast, French inflation was up just 0.8%, with an increase in energy-related inflation but a decline in inflation from other sectors of the economy. Should oil prices stay where they are, they will continue to be a major inflation driver across the region.
  • Chinese data improve. The Caixin Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in November, better than previous readings and analysts’ forecasts. The Caixin index covers mid cap and small cap companies, and is often seen as a more reliable number as it is less influenced by government spending. Chinese stocks, both on the mainland and in Hong Kong, were up sharply overnight. There has been something of a change in attitude among Chinese traders. For much of the last two years, the markets reacted as though “bad news is good news,” believing that bad news would spur Chinese government policy. After a series of economic policy moves last year, traders appear to be more willing to let “good news be good news.”

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Japan: Nikkei Mfg. PMI (Dec)

Tuesday

  • ISM Mfg. (Dec)
  • Germany: CPI (Dec)
  • China: Caixin PMI Services (Dec)

Wednesday

  • Vehicle Sales (Dec)
  • Minutes of the December 13-14 FOMC Meeting Released
  • Eurozone: CPI (Dec)

Thursday

  • ADP Employment (Dec)
  • ISM Non-Mfg. (Dec)

Friday

  • Employment Report (Dec)
  • Evans (Dove)
  • Lacker (Hawk)
  • Eurozone: Economic Confidence (Dec)

Saturday

  • China: Imports and Exports (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

¹ The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

FOMC Raises Rates By 25 BPS As Expected, But Now Sees 3 Hikes Instead of 2 in 2017

As was expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), decided to raise rates by 0.25% (25 basis points) at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The move had been fully priced into financial markets for the past month or so. This is the second rate hike in this cycle. The first was a year ago in December 2015. Here is a side by side comparison of the statement released today versus the statement released at the last FOMC meeting on November 2, 2016. The big story in today’s meeting is that the FOMC now expects to raise rates three times next year; at the September 2016 FOMC meeting, the Fed expected just two hikes in 2017, and the market and the Fed were aligned on that assessment before today.

In its statement, the FOMC made few changes to its assessment of the labor market, the overall economy, household spending, and business capital spending relative to November, but meaningfully upgraded its view of the labor market. For the second straight meeting, the FOMC sounded a bit more concerned about inflation, noting that “Inflation has increased since earlier this year.” In addition, the FOMC said that “Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably.” As it did in November, the FOMC highlighted that the “near-term risks to the economy are roughly balanced,” and the statement again mentioned the committee would “monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” a phrase that has been in every FOMC statement this year.

As it has for a year, the FOMC noted that it expects the pace of rate hikes to be gradual and that any future hikes are data dependent and not on a preset course.

The Fed also released a new set of economic forecasts and dot plots at today’s meeting, as it does four times a year. The key takeaways here are that FOMC members now think the Fed will hike rates three times in 2017, down from two hikes embedded in the September 2016 dot plots. The FOMC still expects three 25 basis point hikes in 2018 and 2019, as it did in September. The long run fed funds rate—what the Fed would consider neutral—rose from 2.875% in the September 2016 dot plots to 3.125% today. This is the first time in nearly five years that the Fed has moved up its assessment of the long-run fed funds rate. Fed Chair Janet Yellen was conducting her fourth and final press conference of the year as this blog was being prepared.

As of now, Fed speakers are not scheduled between now and year-end. The minutes of today’s FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, January 4, 2017, and the Beige Book for the next (January 31-February 1, 2017) FOMC meeting is due out on Wednesday, January 18, 2017. President-elect Donald Trump’s State of the Union Address in late January/early February will be of keen interest to the Fed and Fed watchers. In addition, the mid-February 2017 appearance by Yellen before Congress for her semiannual monetary policy testimony will provide the market with insight into the Fed’s views on any specifics on fiscal policy provided by the incoming Trump Administration and Congress in early 2017. The interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in 2017 is a key concern for markets.

Click here to view the FOMC schedule for 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. Basis Points are a unit relating to interest rates that is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point. It is frequently but not exclusively used to express differences in interest rates of less than 1%. The Beige Book is a commonly used name for the Fed report called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. It is published just before the FOMC meeting on interest rates and is used to inform the members on changes in the economy since the last meeting. Monetary policy is the process through which the monetary authority (central bank, currency board, or other regulatory committee) of a country controls the size and rate of growth of the money supply, which in turn affects interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The eleven-person FOMC is composed of the seven-member board of governors, and the five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other regional Federal Reserve Banks rotate their service in one-year terms. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.