Market Update: April 24, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. up, Europe surging in wake of French vote. U.S. equities are tracking global markets higher this morning following yesterday’s first round of the French presidential elections in which Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen finished in the top spots, triggering a run-off vote set for May 7. Friday’s session concluded with the major indexes posting modest losses ahead of the vote, as the S&P 500 (-0.3%) was led lower by the telecom (-1.6%) and financials (-0.9%) sectors, with only utilities (+0.5%) and industrials (+0.1%) finishing positive. Overseas, Asian indexes reacted positively to the French election as the Nikkei (+1.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) gapped higher; the notable exception was the Shanghai Composite (-1.4%), which fell amidst a government crackdown on leverage. European indexes are spiking as the STOXX 600 (+1.8%) benefits from investors betting on the pro-E.U. candidate Macron; Frances’s CAC is up more than 4% to its highest level in nine years. Finally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has jumped to 2.30%, WTI crude oil (-0.5%) is just below $50/barrel, and COMEX gold ($1271/oz.) has dropped 1.4%.

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  • Solid start to Q1 earnings season. With 95 S&P 500 companies having reported, Thomson-tracked S&P 500 earnings for first quarter 2017 point to an 11.2% year-over-year increase, compared with consensus estimates of +10.2% as of quarter end on April 1, 2017. The early upside has been driven largely by financials, which are tracking to a 19.0% year-over-year increase, more than 4% above quarter-end estimates. Industrials have also surprised to the upside thus far. Conversely, since earnings season began, first quarter earnings estimates have been cut for the consumer discretionary, energy, and telecom sectors, though it is probably too early to call any of these sectors “earnings season losers.” This week (4/24/17-4/28/17) is the busiest week of earnings season with 194 S&P 500 companies slated to report. All of the widely-held sectors are well represented on the earnings calendar, led by industrials.

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  • Leading indicators rise for seventh consecutive month. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) pushed 0.4% higher in March, ahead of expectations but decelerating from a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February. Eight of 10 indicators increased in March, led by contributions from the yield curve and strong new manufacturing orders survey data. The LEI has climbed 3.5% year over year, a rate that has historically been associated with low odds of a recession occurring within the next year.
  • The latest Beige Book suggests a steady economy with modest wage pressure. The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its April Beige Book last week ahead of the May 2-3, 2017 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Our Beige Book Barometer (strong words minus weak words) rose to +77 in April, its highest level since +84 in January 2016, indicating continued steady economic growth in early 2017 with some signs of potential acceleration. Words related to wage pressure have held steady over the last six months at levels above the 2015-2016 average, indicating the appearance of modest but still manageable wage pressure.
  • Important period for European markets. This week, we examine the importance of European market earnings, particularly in important sectors like energy and banking. Expectations remain high for earnings growth throughout 2017, which has kept us cautious on investing in European markets. Political risks also remain, but seem to be abating as we get past the first round of French Presidential elections.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Germany: Ifo (Apr)

Tuesday

  • New Home Sales (Mar)

Wednesday

  • BOJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement
  • BOJ Interest Rate Decision

Thursday

  • Durable Goods Orders (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • Japan: CPI (Mar)

Friday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Apr)

Saturday

  • EU Leaders Summit
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Apr)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

29 Biggest Tax Problems For Married Couples

Preparing your annual income tax return is a chore. It’s even more complex when you’re married. You might have two sets of income, assets, debts and deductions. Further, if you were separated, widowed or divorced during the year, you might have a thorny tax situation.

A qualified accountant can advise you on the basic tax problems that married couples face. For a brief introduction, read through to see 29 of the most significant tax problems married people might encounter. Understanding these challenges can help you get more tax breaks this year.

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1. YOU’RE NOT SURE OF THE YOUR MARITAL STATUS FOR THE TAX YEAR

When preparing taxes, you first need to determine your marital status. It might seem like a straightforward task. However, life is not always so simple.

The IRS considers you to be married if you were lawfully wed on the last day of the tax year. For example, if you tied the knot at any time in the past and were still married on Dec. 31, 2016, you were married to your spouse for the entire year in the eyes of the IRS. The laws of the state where you live determine whether you were married or legally separated for the tax year.

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2. YOU’RE NOT SURE OF YOUR MARITAL STATUS IN A SAME-SEX RELATIONSHIP

Married, same-sex couples are treated the same as married, heterosexual couples for federal tax purposes. However, same-sex couples in a registered domestic partnership or civil union cannot choose to file as married couples, as state law doesn’t consider those types of couples to be married.

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3. YOU DON’T KNOW WHICH FILING STATUS TO CHOOSE

If you weren’t married on Dec. 31 of the tax year, the IRS considers you to be single, head of household or a qualified widow(er) for that year.

If you were married, there are three filing possibilities:

  • Married filing jointly
  • Married filing separately
  • Head of household

If more than one category might apply to you, the IRS permits you to pick the one that lets you pay the least amount in taxes.

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4. YOU CAN’T DECIDE WHETHER TO FILE JOINTLY OR SEPARATELY

If you’re married and don’t qualify to file as head of household, you typically have two choices: filing jointly or separately. It’s best to choose the one that allows you to pay the least amount in taxes, which all comes down to your particular circumstances.

Sometimes it makes sense to file separately, said Josh Zimmelman, owner of Westwood Tax & Consulting, a New York-based accounting firm. “A joint return means that your finances are linked, so you’re both liable for each other’s debts, penalties and liabilities,” he said. “So if either of you has some financial issues or baggage, then filing separately will better protect your spouse from your bad record, or vice versa.”

If you file jointly, you can’t later uncouple yourselves to file married filing separately. “On the other hand, if you file separate returns and then realize you should have filed jointly, you can amend your returns to file jointly, within three years,” Zimmelman said.

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5. YOU ASSUME MARRIED FILING JOINTLY IS ALWAYS THE BEST OPTION

Even if married filing jointly has been your best choice in the past, don’t assume it will always be that way. Do the calculations each year to determine whether filing singly or jointly will give you the best tax result.

Changes in your personal circumstances or new tax laws might make a new filing status more desirable. What was once a marriage tax break might turn into a reason to file separately, or vice versa.

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6. YOU’RE NOT CLEAR ABOUT HEALTHCARE REQUIREMENTS

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act — more commonly known as “Obamacare” — requires that you and your dependents have qualifying health care coverage throughout the year, unless you qualify for an exemption or make a shared responsibility payment.

Even if you lose your health insurance coverage because of divorce, you still need continued coverage for you and your dependents during the entire tax year.

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7. YOU CHANGED YOUR LAST NAME

If you want to change your last name after a marriage or divorce, you must officially inform the federal government. Your first stop is the Social Security Administration. Your name on your tax return must match your name in the SSA records. Otherwise, your tax refund might be delayed due to the mismatched records. Also, don’t forget to update the changed names of any dependents.

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8. YOUR SPOUSE DIED DURING THE TAX YEAR

If your spouse died during the year, you’ll need to figure out your filing status. If you didn’t marry someone else the same year, you may file with your deceased spouse as married filing jointly.

If you did remarry during that tax year, you and your new spouse may file jointly. However, in that case, you and your deceased spouse must file separately for the last tax year of the spouse’s life.

In addition, if you didn’t remarry during the tax year of your spouse’s death, you might be able to file as qualifying widow(er) with dependent child for the following two years if you meet certain conditions. This entitles you to use joint return tax rates and the highest standard deduction amount.

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9. YOU FILE JOINTLY AND YOU’RE BOTH LIABLE

If you use the status married filing jointly, each spouse is jointly and severally liable for all the tax on your combined income, said Gail Rosen, a Martinsville, N.J.-based certified public accountant. “This means that the IRS can come after either one of you to collect the full amount of the tax,” she said.

“If you are worried about your spouse and being responsible for their share of their taxes — including interest and penalties — then you might consider filing separately,’ she said.

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10. YOU FILE SEPARATELY AND LOSE TAX BENEFITS

Although filing separately might protect you from joint and several liabilities for your spouse’s mistakes, it does have some disadvantages.

For example, people who choose the married filing separately status might lose their ability to deduct student loan interest entirely. In addition, they’re not eligible to claim the Earned Income Tax Credit and they might also lose the ability to claim the Child and Dependent Care Credit or Adoption Tax Credit, said Eric Nisall, an accountant and founder of AccountLancer, which provides accounting services to freelancers.

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11. YOU DON’T MEET THE MEDICAL EXPENSE DEDUCTION THRESHOLD

To include non-reimbursed medical and dental expenses in itemized deductions, the expenses must meet a threshold of exceeding 10 percent of your adjusted gross income. However, when you file jointly — and thus report a larger combined income — it can make it more difficult for you to qualify.

A temporary exception to the 10 percent threshold for filers ages 65 or older ran through Dec. 31, 2016. Under this rule, individuals only need to exceed a lower 7.5 percent threshold before they are eligible for the deduction. The exception applies to married couples even if only one person in the marriage is 65 or older.

Starting Jan. 1, 2017, all filers must meet the 10 percent threshold for itemizing medical deductions, regardless of age.

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12. YOU DON’T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MARRIAGE BONUS

Many people complain about the marriage tax penalty. “Married filing jointly may result in a higher tax bill for the couple versus when each spouse was filing single, especially if both spouses make roughly the same amount of income,” said Andrew Oswalt, a certified public accountant and tax analyst for TaxAct, a tax-preparation software company.

However, you might have an opportunity to pay less total tax — a marriage tax break — if one spouse earns significantly less. “When couples file jointly with largely differing income levels, this may result in a ‘marriage tax benefit,’ potentially resulting in less tax owed than when the spouses filed with a single filing status,” Oswalt said.

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13. YOU’RE DIVORCED BUT STILL NEED TO FILE A FINAL MARRIED RETURN

If your divorce became official during the tax year, you need to agree with your ex-spouse on your filing status for the prior year when you were still married. As to whether you should file your final return jointly or separately, there is no single correct answer. It partially depends on your relationship with your ex-spouse and whether you can agree on such potentially major financial decisions.

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14. YOU HAVE TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF DEPENDENTS AFTER A DIVORCE

Tax laws about who qualifies as a dependent are quite complex. Divorcing parents might need to determine which parent gets to claim the exemption for dependent children.

Normally, the custodial parent takes the deduction, Zimmelman said. “So if your child lives with you more than half the year and you’re paying at least 50 percent of their support, then you should claim them as your dependent,” he said.

In cases of shared custody and support, you have a few options. “You might consider alternating every other year who gets to claim them,” said Zimmelman. Or if you have two children, each parent can decide to claim one child, he said.

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15. YOU DEDUCT VOLUNTARY ALIMONY PAYMENTS

If you want to deduct alimony payments you made to a former spouse, it must be in accordance with a legal divorce or separation decree. You can’t deduct payments you made on a voluntary basis.

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16. YOU DEDUCT CHILD SUPPORT PAYMENTS

Even if you don’t take the standard deduction and instead itemize your deductions, you can’t claim child support payments you paid to a custodial parent.

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17. YOU CLAIM CHILD SUPPORT PAYMENTS AS INCOME

Do not report court-ordered child support payments as part of your taxable income. You don’t need to report it anywhere on your tax return. On the other hand, you must report alimony you receive as income on line 11 of your Form 1040.

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18. YOU DON’T CLAIM ALIMONY YOU PAID AS A DEDUCTION

Unlike child support that isn’t tax deductible, you are permitted to deduct court-ordered alimony you paid to a former spouse. It’s a deduction you can take even if you don’t itemize your deductions.

Make sure you include your ex-spouse’s Social Security number or individual taxpayer identification number on line 31b of your own Form 1040. Otherwise, you might have to pay a $50 penalty and your deduction might be disallowed.

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19. YOUR SPOUSE DOESN’T WORK AND MISSES TAX SAVINGS

Saving for retirement is important. Contribute to a 401k plan and you will both save money for your golden years and lower your taxable income now. If your employer offers a 401k plan, you can contribute money on a pretax basis, subject to certain limits.

However, nonworking spouses can’t contribute to a 401k because they don’t have wages from an employer.

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20. YOU MISS QUARTERLY TAX PAYMENTS

Single or married, you might have to pay quarterly tax payments to the IRS, especially if you are self-employed. Make sure you know how to calculate estimated taxes. If you are required to make such payments but do not do so, you might have to pay an underpayment penalty, Rosen said.

All taxpayers must pay in taxes during the year equal to the lower of 90 percent of the tax owed for the current year, or 100 percent — 110 percent for higher-income taxpayers — of the tax shown on your tax return for the prior year, Rosen said. “The problem for married couples is that often they do not realize they owe more taxes due to the combining of the two incomes,” she said.

You should be proactive each year. “To avoid owing the underpayment penalty, make sure to do a projection of your potential tax for 2017 when you finish preparing your 2016 taxes,” she said, adding that you should make sure to comply with the payment rules outlined above.

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21. YOU PHASE OUT OF PASSIVE LOSSES

Crystal Stranger — a Los Angeles-based enrolled agent, president of 1st Tax and author of “The Small Business Tax Guide” — said she sees a lot of married couples who have issues with passive loss limitation rules.

“With these rules, if you have a passive loss from rental real estate or other investments, you are allowed to take up to $25,000 of passive losses against your other income,” she said. “But this amount phases out starting at $100,000 (of) adjusted gross income, and is fully lost by $150,000 (of) adjusted gross income.”

Married filers lose out, as the phaseout amount is the same for a single taxpayer as for a married couple. “This is a big marriage penalty existing in the tax code,” Stranger said. “It gets even worse if a married couple files separately. The phaseout then starts at $12,500, meaning almost no (married filing separately) filers will qualify.”

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22. YOU CLAIM A CHILD AS A DEPENDENT, BUT YOUR INCOME IS HIGH

You are not obligated to claim your kids as dependents on your own tax return. In fact, it might be beneficial not to claim them.

“High earners lose the personal exemption after crossing certain income thresholds,” said Nisall. So in some cases, it might make more sense to let working children claim the exemption for themselves on their own return, he said.

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23. YOU MISS OUT ON THE CHILD TAX CREDIT

Married couples might be able to claim the Child Tax Credit up to a limit of $1,000 for each qualifying child.

“The Child Tax Credit phases out starting at $55,000 for couples electing to use the married filing separately filing status, and (at) $110,000 for those choosing the married filing jointly status,” said Oswalt. “But married couples receive twice the standard deduction that individuals receive, so the phaseout limitations may not negatively impact a married couple’s return if they choose to file jointly.”

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24. YOU NEGLECT THE TAX BREAK FROM A HOME SALE

The IRS provides a tax break when you sell your home, subject to certain conditions. Generally, you must meet a minimum residency period by owning and living in the house for two of the five years previous to the sale.

A single person who owns a home that has increased in value can qualify to exclude up to $250,000 in gains from income, said Oswalt. However, married people can exclude up to $500,000 in gains. This rule can become tricky if one person in the couple purchased the house prior to marriage.

“If you are married when you sell the house, only one of you needs to meet the ownership test for the $250,000 exclusion,” Oswalt said. “You both must meet the residency period to exclude up to the full $500,000 of gain from your income, however.”

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25. YOU DON’T CLAIM THE CHILD AND DEPENDENT CARE CREDIT

Married tax filers might be eligible for the Child and Dependent Care Credit if they paid expenses for the care of a qualifying individual so that they could work or look for work. The rules for who can be a dependent and who can be a care provider are strict. This credit is not available if you file separately.

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26. YOU CAN’T DEDUCT STUDENT LOAN INTEREST

If you’re paying back student loans, you might be looking forward to taking the student loan interest deduction. However, if you’re married, it might not be so easy to do that.

“For a single filer, the deduction begins to phase out when the taxpayer’s adjusted gross income is greater than $65,000,” said Oswalt. “This amount is doubled to $130,000 when filing jointly.”

“So if both spouses are making $65,000 or less, then their deduction will not be affected by the phaseout,” he explained. “However, if one is making $60,000 and the other $75,000, the deduction begins to phase out, which will ultimately result in a larger tax bill.”

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27. YOU INCORRECTLY ACCOUNT FOR GAMBLING WINS AND LOSSES

Imagine a married couple where both spouses like to gamble in Las Vegas. He’s not so lucky and has losses, while she has winnings. If they file a joint return, they might have to report the gambling winnings as taxable income. Meanwhile, the losses might be deductible if the couple itemizes their deductions instead of taking the standard deduction.

However, they can’t take the amount of gambling winnings, subtract the losses and claim the net amount as winnings. Instead, they must report the entire amount of gambling winnings as income, whereas the losses are reported as an itemized deduction up to the amount of the winnings. The IRS requires you to keep accurate records of your winnings and losses.

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28. YOU BECAME A VICTIM OF TAX IDENTITY THEFT

Identify theft is a financial nightmare, no matter how it happens. Tax identity theft happens when someone files a tax return using one or both of the spouse’s Social Security numbers in hopes of scooping up your legitimate refund. If this happens to you, “contact the IRS immediately and fill out an identity-theft affidavit,” said Zimmelman. “You should also file a complaint with the Federal Trade Commission, contact your banks and credit card companies, and put a fraud alert on your and your spouse’s credit reports.”

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29. YOU CAN’T GET YOUR 2015 RETURN

The IRS and state tax agencies work to develop safeguards to avoid identity theft related to tax returns. In 2017, they will be particularly concerned about the implications of taxpayers who file using tax software.

The IRS has alerted taxpayers that they might need to have their 2015 adjusted gross income handy if they are changing software products this year. This number might be required to submit your return electronically.

Getting your 2015 adjusted gross income might be difficult if you are a member of a divorced couple that is not on positive terms, or that hasn’t even been in contact the past few years.

However, you still have options. You might be able to get the information if you go to the IRS website and use the Get Transcript service.

 

 

Written By: Valerie Rind
Source: GOBankingRates

Market Update: April 17, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks tick higher to begin week. U.S. equities are slightly higher this morning as earnings season ramps up this week with 63 S&P 500 components set to report. Markets moved lower the final three sessions of the last week’s shortened trading week, concluding with a 0.7% loss for the S&P 500 on Thursday which was led lower by energy (-1.9%) and financials (-1.7%). Asian indexes closed mixed overnight, with the Nikkei gaining 0.1%, while China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7% as a request from the country’s top securities regulator to tighten controls overshadowed an upside surprise to Gross Domestic Product (GDP); European markets are closed for Easter Monday. Meanwhile COMEX gold ($1291/oz.) is near flat, WTI crude oil ($53.03/barrel) is dropping 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year Note little changed at 2.23%.

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  • First big earnings week on tap. This week 16% of the S&P 500’s market cap will report first quarter 2017 results, highlighted by the financials and industrials sectors. Banks got the season off to a good start late last week, pushing the financials earnings growth rate to near 18% from an estimated 15.6% over the past week. Overall, Thomson-tracked consensus for S&P 500 earnings is calling for a 10.4% year-over-year increase in the quarter; a strong 76% earnings beat rate thus far has lifted overall earnings growth by 0.2% (though just 6% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported last week). Look for our earnings dashboard here on April 24.
  • Consumer prices fell in March. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% month over month in March, below consensus expectations for a flat reading. Core prices, excluding food and energy, slipped 0.1% month over month, the first sequential decline since January of 2010 and well below consensus estimates of +0.2%. The drop pushed the year-over-year changes in headline and core prices to 2.4% (down from 2.7% in February) and 2.0% (down from 2.2% in February), respectively. The drop in prices was broad based, driven by a combination of wireless phone services, apparel, autos, and housing. We continue to expect two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2017, but the soft data in March may cause markets to at least partially discount the probability of a June hike, which is currently about a coin flip based on fed funds futures markets.
  • Retail sales fell for the second straight month. Following a downward revision to February, retail sales fell for the second straight month in March, slipping 0.2% (vs. consensus of -0.1%), though sales increased by a respectable 5.2% on a year-over-year basis. Core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services), rose 0.5% month over month, above expectations, after a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in February. Consumer spending clearly slowed in the first quarter after a strong finish to 2016, but weather, delayed tax refunds, and seasonal quirks in first quarter data in recent years suggest a rebound in the second quarter is likely. Still, first quarter gross domestic product, based on available data to date, is tracking to only about 1%.
  • Upside surprise to Chinese GDP. The Chinese government released its official Q1 GDP report overnight, up 6.9%, better than expectations which generally were in the 6.5%-6.7% range. Economic indicators were up across the board, including growth in Fixed Asset Investment (infrastructure and real estate spending), which is often heavily influenced by government policy, and retail sales. Consumer spending is key to the Chinese government, as it is trying to manage its economy away from infrastructure and heavy industry and toward consumer spending and the service sector.
  • Though many are skeptical regarding Chinese GDP growth figures, what may matter most is how China responds to them. Because the government is signaling that the economic situation is strong, it gives it room to be more aggressive on important issues, primarily the debt problem. Chinese shares were down slightly despite the positive data. Why? Perhaps because of the government’s signal that policy will shift away from supporting the economy (which officially no longer needs the support) and toward dealing with these longer term imbalances.
  • Checking in on technicals, sentiment, and uncertainty. This week we will take a look at market technicals, sentiment, and the ever increasing uncertainty. The good news is market breadth remains strong and globally we are seeing many major markets in uptrends as well. Still, sentiment is a mixed picture and the level of uncertainty remains high. All of this, coupled with the historically low level of market volatility during the first-quarter, makes the potential for higher volatility very likely.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • BOJ: Kuroda Speaks to Trust Companies Association

Wednesday

  • Beige Book
  • Eurozone: Trade Balance (Feb)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Mar)

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 15)
  • Conference Board US Leading Index (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Friday

  • Existing Home Sales (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (Apr)
  • CAD: CPI (Mar)
  • ECB: Current Account (Feb)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: March 20, 2017

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  • Stocks little changed following G20. Major indexes are near flat this morning as stocks search for direction amid little economic data and traders assess the impact of the weekend’s G20 summit, which ended with a whimper. This follows a quiet session on Friday in which the heavily-weighted financials (-1.1%) sector kept the S&P 500 (-0.1%) underwater. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed overnight with the Shanghai Composite (+0.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.8%) moving higher while stocks in India and South Korea finished lower; the Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Europe is mostly lower midday with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%, though off session lows. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil is retracing Friday’s gains, COMEX gold is ticking higher as the dollar continues to weaken, and 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.50%.

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  • Housing data, Fed speakers highlight the week ahead. This week, we get some key data points on housing, with existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday. We also get data on manufacturing with both durable goods orders and Markit’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Friday. Nine Fed members, including four voting members (Yellen, Dudley, Evans, and Kashkari) are lined up to speak this week, providing an opportunity for further insight on last week’s rate hike.
  • Industrial production flat, but manufacturing improving. Industrial production was flat in February, missing expectations of 0.2% growth, although a 0.2% upward revision to January provided an offset. Utility production held the overall industrial production number down after another warm month, but manufacturing production rose 0.5%, topping expectations of 0.4%, a meaningful beat given it came on top of a 0.3% upward revision to January’s data. The gains provide further evidence of a strengthening rebound in manufacturing already being signaled by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and several regional manufacturing indexes.
  • Leading indicators remain strong. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.6% in February, topping consensus expectations and matching similarly strong gains in December and January. The largest positive contributor for the month was the ISM new orders index, reflecting recent gains in manufacturing. The index accelerated to a 3.1% gain year over year, its highest growth rate since August 2015. The LEI continues to point to a low chance of a recession in the next year.
  • In the spirit of March Madness, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the stock market. Specifically, we have identified 16 keys-many of them policy related-for stocks for the rest of 2017 and assessed their implications for the stock market. While the path for several policy-related areas is uncertain, we still expect a solid year for stocks in 2017-potentially even slightly above our S&P 500 target of mid-single-digit gains[1] depending on the exact policy path. Look for a deeper dive into four of these 16 keys to the market in our “Final Four” next week.
  • Big bounce for small caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was up 1.9% last week, which was the largest weekly gain of the year for small caps and the best weekly bounce since early December. This is a nice change, as small caps have lagged most of 2017 after an 8.4% gain during the fourth quarter of last year. In fact, year to date, the RUT is up only 2.5% versus 6.2% for the S&P 500. Many have blamed the recent underperformance on investor skepticism on how quickly tax cuts and infrastructure spending will be implemented. At the same time, some weakness after the huge fourth quarter rally is perfectly normal.

 

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Evans (Dove)

Tuesday

  • Dudley (Dove)

Wednesday

  • Existing Homes Sales (Feb)

Thursday

  • New Home Sales (Feb)
  • Yellen (Dove)
  • Kashkari (Dove)
  • Kaplan (Hawk)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • Japan: Nikkei Mfg. PMI (Mar)

Friday

  • Durable Goods Orders and Shipments (Feb)
  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Markit PMI (Mar)

Saturday

  • China: PBOC’s Zhou Speech

 

 

 

[1] We expect mid-single-digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2017 consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance. We expect S&P 500 gains to be driven by: 1) a pickup in U.S. economic growth partially due to fiscal stimulus; 2) mid- to high-single-digit earnings gains as corporate America emerges from its year-long earnings recession; 3) an expansion in bank lending; and 4) a stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 – 19.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: February 21, 2017

© Susan Walsh/AP Photo

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stock advance continues following record-setting week. U.S. stocks are moving higher in early trading as markets reopen following the Presidents’ Day holiday. All three major averages ended the prior week at record highs; the S&P 500 (+0.2%) advanced modestly as telecom (+0.9%) was the best performing sector. Equities in Asia closed mostly higher overnight amid a quiet session, though the Hang Seng lost 0.8%. European markets are seeing broad strength in afternoon trading (STOXX Europe 600 +0.5%) as investors sift through PMI data that came in mostly above expectations; the U.K.’s FTSE is the exception (-0.1%) as disappointing earnings in the banking sector drag it lower. Finally, Treasuries are losing ground as the yield on the 10-year note is up to 2.44%, WTI crude oil ($54.78/barrel) is up 1.9%, and COMEX gold ($1234/oz.) is slipping 0.4%.

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  • Treasury prices initially lower, then rebound late week. Last week began with Chinese consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data rising much more than analyst estimates, setting the tone for more inflationary pressure on U.S. Treasuries. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen, in her semi-annual testimony before Congress, stated that it would be “unwise to wait too long to hike interest rates.” This moved the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury higher by 8 basis points (0.08%) to 2.52%, as investors began to price in a March rate hike. Thursday’s session saw a slight rebound in prices following a move lower in European yields as the Greek bond market stabilized. This week, investors will be watching the economic calendar for more evidence of inflation.
  • Inflation expectations edge up. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate finished last week slightly higher, moving from 2.01% to 2.02%. Importantly, the breakeven rate is above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. This week, we take a deeper look at Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and why, despite solid performance relative to Treasuries in the second half of 2016, there may be further opportunity within the asset class for investors seeking credit and inflation protection.
  • Municipals supply lower on the week. Muni supply, as measured by the Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply data, remains below the 10-year average of approximately $11 billion, coming in at $7.5 billion last week. Supply is expected to remain light due to the holiday-shortened week. However, March and April supply is expected to grow as the Bloomberg fixed rate calendar supply data already shows an increase in supply from $6 billion on Thursday, February 16 to $7.6 billion today.
  • Investment-grade corporates spread breaches 1.2% level. As measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, this level had provided resistance since late January. As equities made a decisive move higher over the last two weeks, investment-grade corporates have followed suit. Equity strength, investors’ demand for high-quality yield (above that of Treasuries), and increased prospects for corporate tax reform were all contributed to the spread contraction.
  • Earnings dipped last week but estimates still holding firm. Q4 2016 earnings for the S&P 500 are now tracking to a 7.5% year-over-year increase (as measured by Thomson), down about 1% over the past week on insurance industry declines. Financials and technology are still on course for solid double-digit earnings gains. While a 7.5% growth rate is certainly nothing to sneeze at, the better news may be that consensus 2017 estimates are down only 1.1% since earnings season began (and still up over 10% versus 2016), buoyed by flat or positive revisions to financials, energy and industrials estimates. Interestingly, these sectors are particularly policy sensitive, suggesting policy hopes are seeping into analyst and management team outlooks.

021717_earningsdashboard-01

  • Leading indicators rise. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of indicators that tends to lead overall economic activity, rose a strong 0.6% month over month in January, beating the expected 0.4% increase and better than December’s also-strong 0.5% gain. The LEI is now up 2.5% year over year, a rate of change that historically has been accompanied by low risk of recession in the next year.
  • Domestic oil markets in focus. The addition to U.S. supply from shale deposits over the past decade is well known, but demand has changed as well, influenced heavily by our choice of vehicles as well as fuel efficiency standards. President Trump has signed a number of executive orders related to energy, most notably on the Keystone XL Pipeline. However, the administration has not weighed in on other issues, such as fuel economy standards. Any policy changes, as well as how they are enacted, could influence both U.S. supply and demand considerations.
  • European economic growth accelerates. A series of PMI data was released in Europe overnight, pointing to growth increasing at a faster rate than expected. Data from the two largest countries, France and Germany, were better than expected. The Eurozone composite reading (including services and manufacturing) registered 56, the highest reading in 70 months. Inflation in France remained contained at 1.3%, though many in Europe believe that the stronger economy will lead to higher inflation data in the near future.
  • More new highs. Equities staged a late-day rally on Friday to close at new record highs. In fact, the S&P 500 closed at its ninth record high for 2017. This is halfway to the 18 from 2016 and nearly to the 10 record highs made during 2015. Although no one knows how many more new highs will be made this year, it is important to note that they tend to happen in clusters potentially lasting decades. Going back to the Great Depression[1], there have been two long clusters of new highs – from 1954 to 1968 and from 1980 to 2000. The years in between were marked by secular bear markets and a lack of new highs. Could the current streak of new highs that started in 2013 last for many more years?
  • Four in a row. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% last week, closing higher for the fourth consecutive week for the first time since July 2016. The last time it made it to five weeks in a row was coming off of the February 2016 lows. Of the last 12 times the S&P 500 has been up four consecutive weeks, 10 of those times it has closed even higher two weeks later, so momentum can continue in the near term. The S&P 500 has been up only 3.5% in the current streak – the weakest four-week win streak in nearly five years. Going back to 1990, when the S&P 500 is up four weeks in a row, but with a total gain less than 4%, the average return the following two weeks is twice as strong (1.0% versus 0.5%) as the average return after all four-week win streaks.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Feb)
  • Harker (Hawk)
  • Kashkari (Dove)
  • Eurozone: Markit PMI (Feb)
  • China: Property Prices (Jan)

 Wednesday

  • Existing Home Sales (Jan)
  • FOMC Minutes
  • Germany: Ifo (Feb)
  • OPEC Technical Meeting in Vienna
  • Brazil: Central Bank Meeting (Rate Cut Expected)

 Friday

  • New Home Sales (Jan)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1928 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Weekly Market Recap: February 2, 2016

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The week in review

  • Home prices increased in Nov.
  • Pending home sales increased 0.1%
  • Durable goods orders fell 5.1% m/m
  • Flash Services PMI down to 53.7
  • Consumer confidence up to 98.1
  • Consumer sentiment down to 92.0
  • New home sales increased to 544k
  • ECI increased 0.6% in 4Q15

The week ahead

  • Personal income
  • Mfg. and Non-Mfg. PMIs
  • Light vehicle sales
  • Dec. ADP and BLS employment
  • International trade

For more information please visit the Source below.

(Source: JPMorgan)

Where Can You Buy a Mansion for $400,000? Detroit.

Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post

Erica MacKinnon and Bill Sneed have lived all over the world and spent a couple of years in a rented Los Angeles duplex considering whether to move to Miami or Seattle, Oakland or Portland, Maine.

Instead, nearly a year ago, the business and life partners packed up and headed to Detroit, which they had visited months earlier in search of computer coders for their small commercial digital-animation company.

“We spent three days in Detroit, and we just fell in love with the city,” said MacKinnon, 38. “We couldn’t believe the mix of the location and the water and the people.” They also appreciated the expansive 90-year-old brick homes priced below most nondescript L.A. bungalows.

Those homes, in Detroit neighborhoods filled with 4,000- to 7,000-square-foot beauties, are in hot demand, both by newcomers to Michigan and Detroit suburbanites.

New residents have come to Detroit from Paris, Panama, New York, Washington and San Francisco, lured to the city by its creative vibe, sense of urban adventure and affordable homes — even when they buy abodes with a butler’s pantry and third-floor servants’ quarters.

Buyers think: “Why not trade a two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan and have an 8,800-square-foot mansion in Detroit for half of that?” said Kenan Bakirci, an agent for Max Broock who for almost 20 years has focused on Palmer Woods and Sherwood Forest, two historic neighborhoods in north-central Detroit.

In a city where homes still can cost less than a beat-up Chevrolet, demand has revved up for luxury residences that look as if a Bentley or vintage Cadillac belongs in their garages. These high-end homes in the city’s historic neighborhoods frequently attract multiple offers and often sell above the listing price, real estate agents say.

Detroit is a city of empty lots and faded or abandoned homes, and the poverty rate is more than twice the national average. Many blue-collar workers live in suburban bungalows, and executives own sprawling homes in the suburban cities of Grosse Pointe or Bloomfield Hills.

Many people are not aware of Detroit’s mansion districts, where auto barons and wealthy business owners spared no expense to build homes from 1900 to 1929. Homes in Detroit’s Palmer Woods neighborhood have living rooms large enough to seat 110 at a jazz concert. Some come with carriage houses and basement bars big enough for 50 guests.

“Homes that are move-in ready get heated action — multiple offers within the first week,” said Ryan Cooley, who leads O’Connor Realty and landed Sneed and MacKinnon their home. Some receive eight or more offers, he said.

In September, MacKinnon and Sneed moved into a stately 1923 brick home with room for an art studio for Sneed, guest rooms for visits by nieces and nephews, and a home office for their Yankee Peddler animation and design company. They beat out several other offers for the home in Indian Village, one of the half-dozen Detroit neighborhoods where mansions and luxury homes or condominiums are found.

Betty J. Warmack has sold homes in Detroit, mainly in Indian Village, for more than 30 years and says she has never seen this much demand and multiple offers. “I sold an attorney from New York a house, a psychiatrist from New York a house and a blogger” from Europe bought in Indian Village, a neighborhood on Detroit’s east side that is on the National Historic Register, she said. “It’s quite a comeback.”

 

Valrie Honablue, originally from Panama, relocated to Detroit and found an affordable and spacious home in the city’s Indian Village neighborhood. The house had been vacant for 17 years.
Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post

 

Homes that four years ago rarely sold for more than $200,000 fetch twice that amount if they are ready for their new owners to move in, real estate agents say.

About 15 homes sold for $500,000 or more last year through October, more than double the seven high-end sales for the same period in 2014, according to Realcomp, which runs the city’s multiple-listing service.

A few carry price tags of more than $1 million, a rarefied amount that only one Detroit home has sold for since 2006. That home, the Alfred J. Fisher mansion in Palmer Woods, went for $1.6 million in 2014 — more than homes in the tony suburbs fetched that year, according to Realcomp. It sold again last year, for $1.55 million to General Motors President Daniel Ammann and his wife, Pernilla, a partner in a New York advertising agency. (A high-profile mansiononce owned by Motown Records founder Berry Gordy Jr. in the Boston-Edison neighborhood was taken off the market in July.)

Austin Black II, a broker and owner of City Living Detroit, says he is amazed at how many executives have decided that it’s time to live in the city of Detroit, because for years they would house-hunt only in the nicer suburbs, where there were 217 million-dollar homes that sold in 2014 and 229 through October, Realcomp data shows. Inventory in the city has been low for months, Black said, with only a handful of homes for sale in prime neighborhoods. It’s gotten so tight, he said, that he has gone door to door in a few neighborhoods seeking people who are ready to put their homes up for sale.

“I have 20 or so clients who are ready and able to purchase a home right now. Inventory doesn’t exist,” Black said.

Demand in the mansion districts is so high and inventory so low, Black and others say, that some buyers are opting for adjoining neighborhoods, with stately but less elegant homes.

The rising home prices may begin to persuade current homeowners to cash in their mansions and elegant abodes, some of which could fetch record or near-record prices. But “because the market is doing so well lately, some sellers get aggressive with pricing” and those homes sell much slower, Black said.

To many, the influx of new residents is one of several signs that Detroit may finally be on a roll.

Quicken Loans Chairman Dan Gilbert, a Detroit native, is one of the city’s largest commercial landowners, purchasing more than 60 properties downtown for $1.3 billion. And the Kresge and Skillman foundations, JPMorgan Chase and others have committed millions of dollars to revitalization.

Still, those efforts are not enough to jump-start the real estate market and undo the prolonged structural decline of Detroit’s housing stock. So city officials have introduced efforts to either raze or auction abandoned houses. And a community bank is experimenting with a program to renovate vacant houses and, if necessary, absorb a loss to sell them to buyers who may not qualify for traditional loans.

The living room in the mansion once owned by Motown Records founder Berry Gordy Jr. in the Boston-Edison historic district. The house had been listed for $1.295 million but was taken off the market in July.
Paul Sancya/ AP

Detroit has neighborhoods that have been ravaged by years of neglect and middle-class flight. It’s a city where dozens of homes are purchased at auction for as little as $1,000 to $7,000. That helps explain why in Detroit and three adjoining cities, homes sold for a median price of $20,183 last year, which is up from the $15,011 median in 2014 and more than double the median price of 2012, according to Realcomp.

Despite an influx of entrepreneurs, artists and hipsters, Detroit’s population fell from 951,000 in 2000 to about 680,250 in 2014. So new residents are moving into a city full of contrasts: Population and employment bases­­­ have declined for decades; crime and insurance for home and auto are high. Yet new restaurants and art galleries are opening, and high-end shops are starting to show up from New York, Germany and elsewhere.

Demand for larger luxurious homes may be an indication of Detroit’s comeback; buying has heated up since the city filed for bankruptcy in July 2013 (it emerged about 17 months later). Tech start-ups and boutiques have opened, and investors from China and Europe started buying commercial properties or blocks of homes, many in marginal neighborhoods.

Sneed and MacKinnon said they knew that the market was competitive and that they wanted a home in Indian Village, citing its architectural beauty and proximity to the Detroit River and Belle Isle, a city park in the middle of the river.

So they moved to Detroit in frigid February and rented a loft near downtown. “I wanted . . . to be ready when spring hit for any houses on the market,” MacKinnon said. “We wanted a beautiful, craftsman, old historic home.”

They looked at eight homes and then saw the one they bought: a 4,878-square-foot property on a double lot filled this past summer with peonies, hostas and wind chimes. The Georgian revival has a big homey kitchen and a beautiful fireplace in the living room, four bedrooms on the second floor, and a third-floor office and fifth bedroom. It was spacious without being grand and just felt right from the moment they walked in, MacKinnon said.

So they were aggressive and offered $430,000 — well above the $395,000 asking price. The owner accepted in two days. They have learned about their home’s history from him: It was built in 1923 at a cost of $12,750 for W.J. Davidson, who worked in General Motors’ executive offices, and was said to be a wedding present.

Despite being self-employed, Sneed and MacKinnon had pre-qualified for a larger loan, so they landed a mortgage quickly using a local lender. Home insurance was a bit trickier, but after shopping around, they are satisfied with the policy’s $2,400 annual premium.

Their new home requires some improvements — paint and hardwood floors, electrical and fire- and security-alarm upgrades — but basically it was ready for them to move in, except for cleaning out items left in the basement and a few small repairs. “We have had personal invites to join Thanksgiving parties and 100-year house parties, which is something that never happened in Los Angeles. Back there we never knew our neighbors,” MacKinnon said.

Family members have come for visits, including MacKinnon’s mother and sister, who have shown up three times, she said. Other guests say they were misinformed about Detroit, from negative headlines, and appreciated the food culture, parks and how easy it is to get downtown.

For some higher-priced deals, buyers need to put down more cash because their homes may not appraise at the prices they are paying, some agents said. Some offer all-cash purchases — an easy choice for New Yorkers who sell their $3 million apartment and buy a $500,000 mansion. About 40 percent of high-end purchases are all-cash sales, Cooley estimates. Nationwide, 27 percent of housing purchases were all cash in November, often by investors, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Valrie Honablue, a psychiatrist who grew up in Panama, paid cash for her first Detroit home in 2010. She was living in Atlanta when she read about Motown’s real estate opportunities. “The prices are so low; something is wrong,” she said. So she drove to the city to see for herself. She bought one in Indian Village. Shortly after moving to Detroit, she left for “the job of a lifetime” but bounced back within two years, drawn by “the people and the possibilities” and the beautiful homes.

Her second Detroit home had been vacant for 17 years when she bought it in June 2014. She got it for a bargain price but expects to spend five or six years renovating it, partly to spread out the improvement costs.

Warmack, her agent, calls her “the pied piper of Detroit.” A dozen people have followed Honablue to the city and bought homes.

Many who move to Detroit bring their jobs or businesses with them. Sneed and MacKinnon are among them.

“We just couldn’t get ahead” in Los Angeles, Sneed said. Now after nearly a year in Detroit, they operate their Yankee Peddler animation company from a loft, own a huge home with oversize gardens, and have made new friends who clue them into culture, festivals, dog parks and more.

“We know we’re taking a gamble. . . . But there’s a passion here,” Sneed said. They have turned into Detroit boosters and are eager to celebrate their home’s 100th birthday in seven years. Said MacKinnon: “I can’t believe I live on this street. It blows me away how beautiful these streets are.”

Written by Vickie Elmer of The Washington Post 

(Source: The Washington Post)

Weekly Market Commentary: November 30, 2015

Provided by geralt/Pixabay
Provided by geralt/Pixabay

American markets were relatively quiet during Thanksgiving week but there were fireworks in China’s markets.

Late in the week, media outlets reported the China Securities Regulatory Commission was conducting inquiries into several securities firms as part of an anti-corruption crackdown triggered by last summer’s wild market gyrations. The news sizzled through China’s stock markets. The Financial Times wrote:

“It’s like a trip down memory lane… if memory lane was vertical… The Shanghai Composite was down by as much as 6.1 percent in late trade, with the tech-focused Shenzhen Composite following suit, down by as much as 6.8 percent. It would be Shanghai’s biggest one-day fall since August 25, when the benchmark slumped by 7.7 percent, writes Peter Wells in Hong Kong.”

U.S. markets were sanguine, in part, because there was little activity on Friday, according to The Wall Street Journal. It also may have something to do with an upward revision in third quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent during the third quarter, an improvement over the initial estimate of 1.5 percent.

Next week may be a doozy. The European Central Bank is expected to introduce additional monetary easing measures, while the U.S. Federal Reserve provides additional clues about the timing of its monetary tightening measures, said The Wall Street Journal. We’ll also get news about U.S. home sales, automobile sales, chain store sales, factory orders, and employment. It’s likely to be an interesting week.

Data as of 11/27/15 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 0.1% 1.5% 1.1% 14.3% 12.0% 5.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. -0.8 -4.7 -7.9 2.2 0.8 1.3
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.2 NA 2.2 1.7 2.8 4.4
Gold (per ounce) -2.3 -11.8 -11.5 -15.4 -4.9 7.9
Bloomberg Commodity Index -0.4 -22.3 -28.2 -17.4 -11.2 -6.8
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 0.9 2.2 3.5 12.0 12.4 7.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Weekly Market Recap: November 30, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 3.39.27 PM

The week in review

  • Existing home sales were 5.36m
  • 3Q15 Real GDP up to 2.1%
  • Flash Mfg. PMI down to 52.6
  • Consumer confidence sank to 90.4
  • Durable goods improved 3.0% m/m
  • New home sales up to 495k

The week ahead

  • Pending home & vehicle sales
  • Markit & ISM Mfg. PMI
  • Markit & ISM Non-Mfg. PMI
  • ADP Employment & Payrolls
  • Trade deficit

For more information please visit the Source below.

(Source: JPMorgan)

First-Time Buyers Push Home Sales to a 5-Year High

Copyright Mark Moz/Flickr
Copyright Mark Moz/Flickr

U.S. home resales surged to a 5-1/2-year high in May as first-time buyers stepped into the market, the latest indication that housing and overall economic activity were gathering steam in the second quarter.

The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales increased 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million units, the highest level since November 2009.

That left sales this year on track for their strongest performance since 2007.

“It suggests that the U.S. housing market recovery is back on track after the missteps earlier this year. We expect this upbeat tone in the housing recovery to continue as the favorable domestic fundamentals begin to reassert themselves,” said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

Last month’s increase unwound April’s surprise drop in purchases, which economists had dismissed as a blip given that forward-looking indicators on home sales, including mortgage applications, had been fairly strong during that period.

The Realtors group revised April’s sales pace up to 5.09 million units from the previously reported 5.04 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales rising to a 5.26 million-unit pace last month.

First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of transactions, the largest share since September 2012. Still, the share remains well below the 40 percent to 45 percent that economists and realtors say is required for a robust housing market.

May’s sturdy home sales report added to last week’s data on building permits in portraying an upbeat picture of the housing market. It joined strong retail sales, consumer sentiment and employment data reports in suggesting a building up of momentum in the economy after output contracted at the start of the year.

The strengthening economic outlook keeps the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates later this year.

U.S. stocks extended gains on the housing data. Market sentiment was also buoyed by hopes of a deal to avert a debt default by Greece. The housing index (.HGX) was up 0.76 percent. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell.

Strong demand for accommodation, especially among young adults as they find employment, is giving the housing market a steady pulse after a lackluster performance over the last few years. Tightening labor market conditions are also starting to spur stronger wage growth, boosting demand for housing.

Economists hope that housing will strengthen enough to take up some of the slack from manufacturing, which is being stymied by the lingering effects of a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector, and support the economy this year.

“The  continued resilience in existing home sales gives further support to the notion that much of the Q1 weakness in resales was weather-related,” said Derek Lindsey, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York.

While the stock of homes for sales is improving, supply remains fairly tight and continues to limit choice for potential buyers. Last month, the inventory of unsold homes on the market increased 3.2 percent from April to 2.29 million units. Supply was up only 1.8 percent from a year ago.

At May’s sales pace, it would take 5.1 months to clear houses from the market, down from 5.2 months in April. A supply of six months is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

With supply well below what it was at the height of the housing market boom in 2006, the median price for a previously owned home increased 7.9 percent from a year ago to $228,700. House prices this year could exceed the peak set in 2006, the Realtors group said.

While the strong house price gains could reduce affordability, they are raising equity for homeowners, encouraging some to put their houses on the market.

Realtors and economists say insufficient equity has been forcing potential sellers to stay longer in their homes. A survey by the Realtors association showed homeowners on average staying in their homes for 10 years instead of the typical seven years.

Written by Lucia Mutikani of Reuters

(Source: MSN)