Raising Kids to Be Smart About Money

Young minds are programmed to absorb and copy the behaviors around them, which means the sooner you instill proper money management skills, the more prone your kids are to become mature and responsible stewards of their own cash-flow in the future.
“Becoming financially literate early in life is fundamentally important to your financial well-being as an adult,” says Micah Fraim, award-winning CPA and best-selling author.

“I was pinching pennies at five years old, calculating the cost of grocery items per ounce, refusing to buy expensive clothes unless they were on-sale and foregoing scoops of ice cream from the ice cream shop, so I could buy multiple gallons at the grocery store,” Fraim says. “Now as an adult, I still have that same mindset and live well below my means.”

The following kid-approved strategies help you teach the core tenets of being financially savvy; in terms they’ll understand and appreciate. Consider how you can use them to teach your little ones to be smart about money.

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Find Opportunities for Lessons

At some point, your child will inevitably deplete their allowance on impulse purchases, rather than holding out for the more expensive item they’ve been asking for. Instead of giving them more money, or buying it for them, use this as an opportunity to demonstrate that money is a finite resource, which must be allocated over an extended period. Once you spend, it’s gone until you can make more.

Have a conversation about what else they could have done with that money, or how much longer they would have needed to save to get the big-ticket item they wanted. Perhaps give an example of when you spent foolishly, or better yet, saved enough money to buy something important, like your house or car.

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Demonstrate that Income Is Earned

Chores are an easy way to teach children that money must be earned. This tangible incentive for contributing to your household shows them that have to work for what they want, and even do things they may not want to do—i.e. vacuuming and doing the dishes.

The concept of having to earn your money is a positive outcome of rewarding children financially for completing chores. However, some parents find that this method doesn’t necessarily teach money management, making it a bad way to teach children how to be smart about money. The key to avoiding the latter is the set-up.

Susan Borowski, mother and author for Money Crashers, shares how she set this up with her teenage son:

“As a contributing member of the family, my 13-year-old son is expected to do certain chores around the house for free. He can earn money for tackling larger tasks, many of which he can choose, some of which he cannot; the amount he earns depends on the difficulty of the task or how long it takes. This forces us to discuss money each time he takes on a larger task.”

This shows them that they have control over how much they earn, rather than it being a given.

Secondly, keep chores focused on money management with an app like Chore Monster so children can track what they’ve done and earned. This is an easy way to establish a record-keeping system, for both chores and allowance, seeing increases or decreases in money earned over time.

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Establish a Record-Keeping System

When your child is consistently earning allowance or money for chores, it’s important that they’re able to account for what happens with that money. The more emphasis you put on this piece of the earning, the more they’ll see the value of managing their funds. They’ll start to notice wasteful spending habits and identify which pitfalls to avoid during their next allowance payout.

Designate a folder where they can stockpile receipts and a notebook where they can track all purchases. This simple method of financial reporting is an ideal precursor to balancing a checkbook, analyzing bank statements, or creating a monthly budget.

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Use Visual Aids to Your Advantage

Although the “piggy bank” is a time-honored childhood favorite, this approach to money management doesn’t allow your child to see the positive outcome of their coin stashing. For a more functional alternative, use a transparent mason jar or clear plastic Tupperware container, both of which gives them an unobstructed view of the progressive financial increase that comes from diligent and habitual saving. This tool makes the abstract concept of saving easy to see and understand.

You can also open a bank account for older children. This gives them a chance to become familiar with bank statements, which act as a visual aid. Each time a new statement comes in, they can sit down and look at how much money was put into the bank account and how that’s changed month-over-month. Many banks now offer online portals, as well, where your children can see progress represented in bar and pie graphs; these may be easier to understand and digest.

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Encourage Them to Set a Savings Goal

There’s a sense of accomplishment and empowerment in reaching a goal with no shortcuts taken or assistance received. Channel this mindset when encouraging your child to practice economical behaviors. Next time they express interest in the latest gadget, suggest they purchase it themselves and develop a step-by-step plan together, so they feel equipped for the undertaking. This process of setting aside money with a specific goal in mind reinforces the gratification gained from being smart about money and purchasing the item without any help.

It’s never too early to start teaching your kids about how to be financially savvy. Too many people don’t learn about personal finance until it’s too late — like when they’re buried in student loans — so teaching these skills early on is important for setting your children up for success later in life.

 

 

 

Written By: Jessica Thiefels
Source: PBS

Market Update: May 30, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq closed at new record highs last Friday; seventh consecutive gain for S&P 500 and 20th record close year to date.
  • The combination of positive sentiment and low volatility suggests stocks may continue to absorb challenging headlines.  Investors weathered potential risks from last week’s news, including: fallout from Comey firing, growing investigation into Administration/Russia ties, White House’s 2018 budget proposal, terrorist bombing in Manchester, Moody’s China debt downgrade, CBO’s score for AHCA, and minutes from last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggesting higher interest rates ahead.
  • Markets also handled disappointing economic reports, specifically weakness in new home sales, durable goods orders; instead focusing on longer-term trends such as positive global data (Germany, Japan), upward revision to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1st quarter.
  • Orders for durable goods fell in April, but good news in the details. Drop (-0.7%) in orders bested expectations (-1.0%) and March revision was strong (details below).
  • Orders ex-transportation showed a similar pattern. Nondefense capital goods shipments ex-air, a proxy for business spending, fell slightly (-0.1%) but better than forecast, following four consecutive monthly gains.
  • For the week, stocks rose +1.5% to +2.0%, powered higher by the unusual combination of utilities and technology sectors, each up >2.0%.  Investors likely hedging their bets, counting on growth prospects of technology, but not necessarily buying into Fed’s rate outlook as “bond proxy” utilities sector rose.
  • Weakness in energy (-2.0%) as markets appeared to have already priced in extension to OPEC production cuts, but investors wanted deeper cuts and pushed WTI crude oil down by >1.5% last week (after rising for three weeks) to ~$49.00/bbl.
  • Action in U.S. Treasury market also points toward less Fed activity after expected June hike, with 10-Year Treasury yield hovering in the 2.25% range, on track for fourth straight monthly gain.
  • U.S. dollar firmed slightly (+0.1%) on the heels of solid GDP revision.
  • Stocks in Europe basically flat Friday; euro & pound sterling weakened as Conservatives’ lead over Labour has narrowed considerably in recent weeks.
    Emerging markets stocks +2.0% on the week, maintaining year to date leadership globally.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Stocks in Asia little changed amid shortage of overseas leads.
  • Yen strengthened for a third day against the U.S. dollar (USD/JPY -0.3% to 110.9)
  • In Europe, shares down fractionally (Euro Stoxx 600 -0.1%); bank stocks, weakness in business & consumer confidence weighing
  • European Central Bank (ECB) Head Draghi was critical of U.S. trade proposals in speech to European Parliament yesterday.  He also reaffirmed commitment to maintaining ECB stimulus, placing pressure on the euro.
  • Euro down -0.1% to $1.11
  • Commodities – Mostly lower, led by weakness in precious metals and agriculture, with WTI oil holding below $50.00/bbl. COMEX gold (-0.2%) to $1265 and copper (-0.6%).
  • U.S. stock, Treasury yields down slightly in muted, post-holiday trading.
  • U.S. dollar weak vs. yen but stronger vs. euro and other major currencies
  • U.S. Personal Income and Spending for April met expectations after two consecutive shortfalls. Inflation metrics in this report are. Its preferred measure of price growth, the Core PCE deflator, key inflation metric for the Federal Reserve, at 1.7% from 1.6%.

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Key Insights

  • The trend for business spending/capital investment is improving.  After years of hoarding cash, paying yield, and buying back shares, the business cycle has returned with upward shifts in pricing and U.S. monetary policy.  Businesses can no longer simply attempt to maintain market share, but rather, they must grow market share as the recovery/expansion enters its ninth year.
  • While personal consumption is still the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, we believe the rate of growth in the coming quarters/years will be driven by capital investment, which is taking up a larger portion of GDP contribution (details below).
  • 1Q earnings per share (EPS) (+15% year over year) faced the easiest comparisons and we look for remainder of 2017 quarterly EPS gains to hover in the mid-high single digit range. These are smaller percentage gains than what we’ve become accustomed to these past couple of quarters, but still indicative of sustained, late cycle growth accompanied by still low interest rates and inflation (details below).
  • We recognize current trading range is of concern. Despite the flattening yield curve, which could partly be the result of global sovereign credit valuations, there appears to be little stress evident in the credit markets (details below).

Fixed Income Notes

  • Despite equity markets at/near record levels, bond market continues to hang in there.  Constant maturity 10-year Treasury note up four consecutive months, Barclays Aggregate (+2.0%) and Barclays High Yield (+4.0%) providing positive returns year to date.
  • After 1.35% low last June, 10-year Treasury yield surged to 2.65% in late February/early March of this year. Since then, several factors have conspired to push yields lower, despite Fed’s plans to raise interest rates (see below). First, failure of the first vote on ACA repeal placed a great deal of uncertainty on likelihood of President Trump’s pro-growth policy agenda being fully enacted. Second, weak Q1 GDP enabled flattening of the yield curve. Third, some are projecting higher short-term borrowing costs will curb lending and growth, making it tougher for Fed to sustain 2.0% inflation target. Fourth (less sinister) reason has to do with relative valuation.  With Fed moving in a different direction from ECB and BOJ, those sovereign bonds trading at very expensive valuations, increasing attractiveness of U.S. government bonds.
  • This can be a blessing and a curse: curse is that a bid for U.S. Treasuries from global investors helps mask our spending profligacy. The blessing is global investors appear confident slow growth with low inflation likely to be sustained in U.S., without signs of excessive upside, or downside risks.
  • As a result, we continue to look for the U.S. benchmark Treasury yield to trade within the 2.25% to 2.75% range in the second half of 2017.
  • Corporate credit spreads (high yield & investment grade) remain narrow, credit default swaps (CDS) also held steady. If these critical market signposts (10-year Treasury yield, credit spreads, CDS) hold steady, financial markets likely to continue narrow trading range
  • Geopolitics may periodically cause near term uncertainty, but like equity markets, next catalyst likely move the bond market will be clarity on U.S. fiscal policy

Macro Notes

  • S&P 500 currently at another record level, 2415, but technicals suggest move to 2450-2475 within reach in coming months.
  • Bullish catalyst is necessary, could come in the form of: sustainable EPS growth, > expected GDP in Q2/Q3, less aggressive Fed in 2H17, corporate tax cuts, tax reform, global GDP etc.
  • Unfortunately, move of this magnitude highly dependent on fiscal policy changes, where uncertainty narrows trading ranges until clarity emerges.
  • Fundamentally, move toward this level can be justified, but anything above it would need more clarity on 2018 EPS increases, largely due to combination of repatriation tax holiday/reduction in corporate tax rate.
  • Assuming $130.00 in S&P 500 operating EPS this year, stocks currently trading ~18.5x calendar 2017; a move >2450 would take market price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) >19x.
  • Tax reform may be too big to achieve in current political environment, but corporate tax cuts still possible; if implemented, 2018 EPS could be >$140.00, which would bring target ranges for index 2500 to 2550 in 12 to 18 months
  • U.S. Q1 Real GDP revised higher from +0.7% to +1.2%, helped by a more positive picture of business investment, which had already posted a strong quarter, and a slightly better picture of consumer spending. The improvement alleviates some concerns of Q1 weakness and increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in June. Looking at Q2 GDP, prospects are for much stronger growth, and could be in the +3.0%, as pent up demand in cap-ex, housing, and an inventory rebuild from Q1 weakness propels GDP higher.
  • Though components of the durable goods report (airlines, transportation) can be volatile, the trend over the past year for orders (business investment) is still up approximately +5.0% year over year, despite last month’s weakness
  • A host of European economic data was released overnight, generally showing that the economic recovery continues, but at a somewhat slower pace than expected. The highlighted number was German inflation, running at 1.4%, below forecast and previous readings of 2%, which is also the ECB target rate. This data reduces some pressure on the ECB to alter its current monetary policy.
  • Politics continue to foil plans for European certainty. Just three weeks ago, the election of a Conservative government in the U.K. was seen as both a certainty and a boost for Prime Minister Theresa May. In the past few weeks, a Conservative victory, while still likely according to the polls, is now less certain. The British pound has also weakened, not coincidentally. In addition, there have been renewed calls for an early election, as soon as September 2017, as opposed to the 2018 election now expected. An early election would likely focus directly on the EU and the euro.
  • Corporate Beige Book supports strong earnings outlook. Much like first quarter earnings results and management guidance, our measure of corporate sentiment based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts was better than we expected. We saw a sharp increase in strong and positive words over the prior quarter, with no change in weak and negative words. Wwe believe the positive tone from management teams supports a favorable earnings outlook in the quarters ahead.
  • New highs and no volatility, more of the same. The S&P 500 Index closed at another new high on Friday, making it seven consecutive higher closes. It hasn’t been up eight days in a row since July 2013 and the previous two seven day win streaks ended at seven days. It also gained 1.4% for the week, avoiding its first three week losing streak since before Brexit. Last, the incredible lack of volatility continued, as the S&P 500 Index traded in a range of only 0.19% on Friday, the smallest daily range since March 1996 and the smallest daily range while also closing at a new all-time high since August 1991.
  • June is a busy month for central banks. Summer is nearly here and historically that has meant lower volume, but potential market volatility. As we turn the calendar to June, the three big events this month are all from central banks: as the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ all have meetings to decide interest rate policy. These events, along with a few others, could make for an eventful month in June.

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Monday

  • Memorial Day Holiday
  • Eurozone: Money Supply (Apr)
  • Japan: Jobless Rate (Apr)

Tuesday

  • PCE (Apr)
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May)
  • France: GDP (Q1)
  • Germany: CPI (May)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (May)
  • Japan: Industrial Production (Apr)
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (May)

Wednesday

  • Chicago Area PMI (May)
  • Beige Book
  • France: CPI (May)
  • Germany: Unemployment Change (May)
  • Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (Apr)
  • Italy: CPI (May)
  • Eurozone: CPI (May)
  • India: GDP (Q1)
  • Canada: GDP (Mar)
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Mfg. PMI (May)
  • China: Caixin China Mfg. PMI (May)
  • Japan: Capital Spending (Q1)

Thursday

  • ADP Employment (May)
  • Non-Farm Productivity (Q1)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 27)
  • Markit Mfg. PMI (May)
  • ISM (May)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Mfg. PMI (May)
  • Italy: GDP (Q1)
  • Brazil: GDP (Q1)
  • South Korea: GDP (Q1)
  • Canada: Markit Canada Mfg. PMI (May)
  • Japan: Vehicle Sales (May)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (May)
  • Unemployment Rate (May)
  • Trade Balance (Apr)
  • Eurozone: PPI (Apr)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: May 22, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • After hitting a new record on Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index sold off -1.8% Wednesday on fears the growing controversies around the Trump Administration will cause a delay in the pro-growth policy agenda, including tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.
  • Stocks stabilized on Thursday and Friday, recovering ~1.0%, but pared gains both days going into the close of trading.
  • For the week, major U.S. equity indexes fell ~-0.5% as investors’ focus switched from political headline risks to positive fundamentals supporting economic and profit growth.
  • Financials were the worst performing sector (-1.0%) on the week, followed by industrials (-0.3%); defensives and dividend paying sectors in favor, with real estate (+1.2%), consumer staples (+0.5%) and utilities (+0.5%) leading.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady around 2.24%, while the U.S. dollar lost -1.6% for its worst week since July.
  • Despite expectations for a June rate hike, the market does not fear an aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • COMEX Gold was +2.0% on the week; copper also climbed 2.0% Friday.
  • WTI crude oil rose +2.0% to $50/barrel on Friday, +5.0% on the week in anticipation of further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cuts at meeting in Vienna on 5/25.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Stocks in Asia were mostly positive as MSCI EMG had biggest climb (+0.90%) in two weeks, led by commodity producers.
  • North Korea fired another missile, yet Korean won moved higher on naming of new finance minister.
  • Japanese shares were boosted by weaker yen and exports rose for a 5th consecutive month in April, up 7.5% year over year.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed at its highest level since July 2015.
  • Australian stocks rose despite S&P reducing credit ratings for many of their banks on concerns over property prices and potential rise in credit losses.
  • In Europe, shares were up ~0.2% with gains in real estate, energy and mining shares.
  • German bunds slipped to 0.38% on the 10-year and euro held around $1.11.
  • European Union ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss Greek bailout and refine plans for Brexit negotiations.
  • In UK election, the Tory lead over Labour has narrowed considerably, from almost 20 points last month to just 10 points this morning.
  • Commodities – WTI crude oil +0.9% to $51.10/barrel; COMEX gold slipped to $1254/oz. while copper is higher by 0.20%.
  • Major U.S. indexes up slightly along with Treasury yields as investors judge recent selloff on political turmoil may have been excessive.

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Key Insights

  • U.S. fiscal policy needs to become primary growth driver for 2018. President Trump releases his administration’s budget plans Tuesday, including economic projections and spending plans for federal agencies and entitlement programs. Congressional Republicans must first agree on a budget if they want to achieve tax reform this year; intraparty fighting must cease if Republicans want to maintain majority after next year’s midterms. History is littered with examples of “wave” elections after one party assumes power. However, if Republicans see an expiration date on their majority; similar to Democrats in 2010 and Republicans in 2006, these developments may result in more legislation passing. We are likely to see an infrastructure plan in the coming weeks and the Senate appears to have progressed on tax reform plan, which doesn’t include BAT or removal of corporate interest deduction.
  • Despite paring losses Thursday and Friday, risk-off vibe still apparent with dollar weakness, yield curve flattening, VIX higher, and bank, small cap and transport stocks all underperforming. However, there is little stress evident in U.S. credit markets with credit default swaps, investment grade and high yield spreads all contained. The economy continues to benefit from pent up demand in capital expenditures, housing and an inventory rebuild from a Q1 drawdown.

Macro Notes

  • Unofficial last week of an excellent earnings season. With just 28 S&P 500 companies left to report results, S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter is tracking to a very strong +15.2% year-over-year increase, 5% above prior (4/1/17) estimates (thanks to a 75% beat rate), and +11.1% excluding energy. Technology jumped ahead of financials and materials last week into second place in the earnings growth rankings (energy is first), while industrials, energy and materials have produced the most upside to prior estimates. This week 19 S&P 500 companies are slated to report.

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  • Guidance may be the most impressive part of earnings season. We were very impressed that company outlooks were positive enough to keep estimates for the balance of 2017 firm, amidst heightened policy uncertainty and the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter. Consumer discretionary, industrials, technology, financials and healthcare sectors have all seen consensus estimates for 2017 and 2018 rise, as has the S&P 500, over the past month; and consensus estimates reflect a solid 9% increase in earnings over the next four quarters versus the prior four.
  • This week, we try to help investors stay focused on fundamentals. Market participants became increasingly worried that the Trump administration’s agenda was in danger last week following the latest news surrounding the investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia. After its biggest one-day drop in nearly a year on Wednesday, the S&P 500 recovered nicely Thursday and Friday to end the week less than 1% off its all-time closing high. We don’t know what will happen with the Russia investigation, but we think we have a pretty good handle on the basic fundamentals of the economy and corporate profits, which look good right now, tend to drive stocks over time, and are where we think investors should be focused.
  • This week, we also take a look at inflation. With the unemployment rate unlikely to go much lower, Fed watchers are becoming increasingly focused on the other half of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, low and stable inflation. Despite disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter, consensus forecasts indicate expectations of better growth over the rest of the year, which would likely be accompanied by an uptick in inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. However, there are still many factors that limit the possibility of runaway inflation. Better growth would likely give us enough inflation for the Fed to follow through on raising rates twice more in 2017, but we don’t expect inflation to reach a level that would push the Fed to move faster.
  • What does the large drop on Wednesday mean? The S&P 500 Index fell 1.8% on Wednesday and has bounced back the past two days. Nonetheless, Wednesday was the worst one-day drop since September and given it happened within 0.5% of all-time highs, the question is: What does a large drop near all-time highs mean?

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  • This week’s domestic economic calendar includes data on preliminary purchasing manager surveys (manufacturing and services) from Markit, housing, trade, durable goods, and revised first quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The Fed will remain in focus with minutes from the May 3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due out Wednesday (May 24) and several Fed speakers on the docket-a roughly even balance of hawks and doves. We believe the market is correctly pricing in a June 14 rate hike. Overseas economic calendars are busy with a series of data in Europe, including first quarter German and U.K. GDP, German business confidence, and Eurozone purchasing manager surveys; and in Japan (trade, manufacturing and inflation data). Political troubles in Brazil may continue to weigh on emerging market indexes.

 Monday

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr)

 Tuesday

  • New Home Sales (Apr)
  • Richmond Fed Report (May)
  • Germany: GDP (Q1)
  • Germany: Ifo (May)
  • France: Mfg. Confidence (May)
  • BOJ: Kuroda
  • Japan: All Industry Activity Index (Mar)
  • Japan: Machine Tool Orders (Apr)
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Mfg. PMI (May)

 Wednesday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (May)
  • Markit Services PMI (May)
  • Existing Home Sales (Apr)
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (May 3)
  • France: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Germany: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (May)
  • Canada: BOC Rate Decision (May 24)

 Thursday

  • Advance Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
  • Wholesale Inventories (Apr)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 20)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • Italy: Industrial Orders & Sales (Mar)
  • Japan: CPI (Apr)
  • Japan: Tokyo CPI (May)

 Friday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • Personal Consumption (Q1)
  • Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
  • Capital Goods Shipments & Orders (Apr)
  • Italy: Business Confidence in the Mfg. Sector (May)
  • Italy: G7 Leaders Meet in Sicily

Saturday

  • BOJ: Kuroda

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: April 24, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • U.S. up, Europe surging in wake of French vote. U.S. equities are tracking global markets higher this morning following yesterday’s first round of the French presidential elections in which Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen finished in the top spots, triggering a run-off vote set for May 7. Friday’s session concluded with the major indexes posting modest losses ahead of the vote, as the S&P 500 (-0.3%) was led lower by the telecom (-1.6%) and financials (-0.9%) sectors, with only utilities (+0.5%) and industrials (+0.1%) finishing positive. Overseas, Asian indexes reacted positively to the French election as the Nikkei (+1.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) gapped higher; the notable exception was the Shanghai Composite (-1.4%), which fell amidst a government crackdown on leverage. European indexes are spiking as the STOXX 600 (+1.8%) benefits from investors betting on the pro-E.U. candidate Macron; Frances’s CAC is up more than 4% to its highest level in nine years. Finally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has jumped to 2.30%, WTI crude oil (-0.5%) is just below $50/barrel, and COMEX gold ($1271/oz.) has dropped 1.4%.

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  • Solid start to Q1 earnings season. With 95 S&P 500 companies having reported, Thomson-tracked S&P 500 earnings for first quarter 2017 point to an 11.2% year-over-year increase, compared with consensus estimates of +10.2% as of quarter end on April 1, 2017. The early upside has been driven largely by financials, which are tracking to a 19.0% year-over-year increase, more than 4% above quarter-end estimates. Industrials have also surprised to the upside thus far. Conversely, since earnings season began, first quarter earnings estimates have been cut for the consumer discretionary, energy, and telecom sectors, though it is probably too early to call any of these sectors “earnings season losers.” This week (4/24/17-4/28/17) is the busiest week of earnings season with 194 S&P 500 companies slated to report. All of the widely-held sectors are well represented on the earnings calendar, led by industrials.

4-24-17-earnings-dashboard

  • Leading indicators rise for seventh consecutive month. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) pushed 0.4% higher in March, ahead of expectations but decelerating from a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February. Eight of 10 indicators increased in March, led by contributions from the yield curve and strong new manufacturing orders survey data. The LEI has climbed 3.5% year over year, a rate that has historically been associated with low odds of a recession occurring within the next year.
  • The latest Beige Book suggests a steady economy with modest wage pressure. The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its April Beige Book last week ahead of the May 2-3, 2017 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Our Beige Book Barometer (strong words minus weak words) rose to +77 in April, its highest level since +84 in January 2016, indicating continued steady economic growth in early 2017 with some signs of potential acceleration. Words related to wage pressure have held steady over the last six months at levels above the 2015-2016 average, indicating the appearance of modest but still manageable wage pressure.
  • Important period for European markets. This week, we examine the importance of European market earnings, particularly in important sectors like energy and banking. Expectations remain high for earnings growth throughout 2017, which has kept us cautious on investing in European markets. Political risks also remain, but seem to be abating as we get past the first round of French Presidential elections.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Germany: Ifo (Apr)

Tuesday

  • New Home Sales (Mar)

Wednesday

  • BOJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement
  • BOJ Interest Rate Decision

Thursday

  • Durable Goods Orders (Mar)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • Japan: CPI (Mar)

Friday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Apr)

Saturday

  • EU Leaders Summit
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Apr)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Market Update: April 10, 2017

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  • Stocks move higher to start week. U.S. equities are modestly higher this morning as investors look ahead to the start of first quarter earnings season, with several tier one banks set to report later this week. This after major indexes shook off a lackluster jobs report and pushed higher through midday, only to give back gains late in the session; the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. The telecom (+0.2%) and healthcare (+0.2%) sectors clung to modest gains, while financials (-0.3%) and energy (-0.4%) stocks were among the days’ laggards. Overseas, investors are focusing on political turmoil stemming from Syrian incidents amid light economic data; Asian markets were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (+0.7%) advancing, and the Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) moving lower; while European indexes are near flat amid range-bound trading. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($52.80/barrel) continues to climb on regional turmoil in the middle east, COMEX gold ($1250/oz.) is lower, and Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.37% on the 10-year.

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  • Over the last month, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index (CCI) fell 20 points to 235. The CCI remains in the middle of the range it has held since 2010. Falling shipping traffic and an increase in initial jobless claims off of near 40-year lows were the main detractors from the CCI in the last month, while fed fund rate expectations and credit spreads were the main positive contributors.
  • Inflation and highlights from this week’s economic calendar. Despite Friday’s holiday, retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI) will be reported on that day (producer prices come Thursday) and will highlight what is otherwise a quiet week of data in the U.S. Two reports that deserve some attention, however, are National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) which will provide some insights into the policy-driven rise in business confidence and the job market, where Friday’s weak payroll employment report raised some concerns. Overseas, we get Chinese and Japanese trade data and G7 Finance Ministers will meet, while geopolitical risk will remain in focus following last week’s military strike in Syria.
  • S&P 500 poised for double-digit earnings gain. The S&P 500 is likely to produce double-digit year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter (Thomson-tracked consensus is +10.1%) as earnings season gets underway this week. Earnings growth would reach 12-14%, the best since 2011, should companies beat estimates by the average 4.1% seen over the last five years according to FactSet. Last year’s first quarter marked the trough of the earnings recession, setting up an easy comparison, though we have several other reasons to be optimistic. Growth is expected to be powered by energy’s rebound from the oil downturn that battered the sector early last year while solid macro data in recent months is also supportive.
  • Fed balance sheet. Minutes from the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released last Wednesday, signaled that the Fed intends to reduce its sizable $4.2 trillion balance sheet. We’ll analyze the options available to the Fed to accomplish a reduction of this size. In addition to how the balance sheet was built, we look at the structure of the assets within the portfolio for clues as to how the normalization may impact markets.
  • Continued strong breadth. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite Advance/Decline (A/D) line broke out to new highs last week. This is one of our favorite technical indicators, as it shows how many stocks are advancing versus declining at any given time. In other words, it measures overall market breadth. To see new highs occur suggests there is a good deal of investor participation and the overall equity rally could continue to have legs. Also, the NYSE A/D line broke out to new highs one year ago this week, well ahead of the eventual S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) new highs in July 2016.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Eurozone: Industrial Production (Feb)

Wednesday

  • Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 1)

Friday

  • Banks Open, Markets Closed
  • CPI (Mar)
  • Retail Sales (Mar)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. 

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: March 27, 2017

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  • Equities slip after healthcare reform shelved. U.S. indexes are tracking global stocks lower this morning after Congress was unable to push through the American Health Care Act, casting some uncertainty over prospects for tax reform as well. On Friday, the S&P 500 (-0.1%) closed modestly lower, dragged down by materials (-0.9%) and energy (-0.5%); utilities (+0.4%) was the best performing sector. Overnight, Asian markets were led lower by Japan’s Nikkei (-1.4%) on yen strength; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.7%) and China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.1%) fared better. Stocks are also lower across the board in Europe, notably in Germany’s DAX (-0.9%) and Italy’s MIB (-0.9%). Elsewhere, the recent weakness in WTI crude oil ($47.21/barrel) continues, while the risk-off sentiment is boosting COMEX gold ($1262/oz.) and Treasuries, lowering the yield on the 10-year Note by five basis points (0.05%) to 2.35%.

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  • Our Final Four factors in today’s Weekly Market Commentary. With college basketball’s Final Four set, this week we share our “Final Four factors” for the stock market in 2017. We expect a hard-fought battle between these factors and market risks. But when the “tournament” is over on December 31, depending on the path of policy out of Washington, D.C., we expect the S&P 500 to be at or above current levels.
    1. Economic Growth – We continue to expect a modest pickup in economic growth in 2017 to near 2.5%, based on gross domestic product (GDP), supported by increasing business investment, steady consumer spending gains, and, later in the year, pro-growth fiscal policy to be enacted.
    2. Earnings – We expect high-single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth in 2017[1], supported by better U.S. economic growth, rebounding energy sector profits, a stable U.S. dollar, and resilient profit margins.
    3. Corporate Tax Reform – Corporate tax reform, which remains the centerpiece of the Trump economic agenda, is still likely to get done in the next year despite the failure to get the healthcare bill through the House last week. The Trump administration will immediately pivot to tax reform, though a comprehensive overhaul will be difficult to achieve.
    4. The Fed – We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates twice more in 2017 following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate hike on March 15. We are encouraged by the Fed’s acknowledgement of the improved economic outlook and its stated plan to hike rates gradually.
  • Down seven in a row. The Dow closed lower on Friday for the seventh consecutive session. The last seven-day losing streak was ahead of the U.S. election, and it hasn’t been down eight in a row since August 2011. The S&P 500 meanwhile has closed lower six of the past seven days. Taking a closer look at the Dow’s seven-day losing streak, it has been green at some point each day. Also, the total loss during the streak is only 1.7%. To put this in perspective, since 1980, there have now been 20 seven-day losing streaks. The average drop during the previous 19 was 7.3% and the current drop of 1.74% ranks as the second smallest loss.

MonitoringWeek_header

 Monday

  • Evans (Dove)
  • Eurozone: M3 Money Supply (Feb)
  • China: PBOC’s Zhou Speech

Wednesday

  • Evans (Dove)

 Thursday

  • GDP (Revision) (Q4)
  • Eurozone: Industrial, Services & Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Mar)

 Friday

  • Personal Income (Feb)
  • Kashkari (Dove)

 

 

 

 

[1] We expect S&P 500 gains to be driven by: 1) a pickup in U.S. economic growth partially due to fiscal stimulus; 2) mid- to high-single-digit earnings gains as corporate America emerges from its year-long earnings recession; 3) an expansion in bank lending; and 4) a stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 – 19.

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Tax Changes for 2017: A Checklist

Welcome, 2017! As the New Year rolls around, it’s always a sure bet that there will be changes to current tax law and 2017 is no different. From health savings accounts to tax rate schedules and standard deductions, here’s a checklist of tax changes to help you plan the year ahead.

Individuals

For 2017, more than 50 tax provisions are affected by inflation adjustments, including personal exemptions, AMT exemption amounts, and foreign earned income exclusion.

While the tax rate structure, which ranges from 10 to 39.6 percent, remains the same as in 2016, tax-bracket thresholds increase for each filing status. Standard deductions and the personal exemption have also been adjusted upward to reflect inflation. For details see the article, “Tax Brackets, Deductions, and Exemptions for 2017,” below.

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Exemption amounts for the AMT, which was made permanent by the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) are indexed for inflation and allow the use of nonrefundable personal credits against the AMT. For 2017, the exemption amounts are $54,300 for individuals ($53,900 in 2016) and $84,500 for married couples filing jointly ($83,800 in 2016).

“Kiddie Tax”

For taxable years beginning in 2017, the amount that can be used to reduce the net unearned income reported on the child’s return that is subject to the “kiddie tax,” is $1,050 (same as 2016). The same $1,050 amount is used to determine whether a parent may elect to include a child’s gross income in the parent’s gross income and to calculate the “kiddie tax.” For example, one of the requirements for the parental election is that a child’s gross income for 2017 must be more than $1,050 but less than $10,500.

For 2017, the net unearned income for a child under the age of 19 (or a full-time student under the age of 24) that is not subject to “kiddie tax” is $2,100.

Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)

Contributions to a Health Savings Account (HSA) are used to pay current or future medical expenses of the account owner, his or her spouse, and any qualified dependent. Medical expenses must not be reimbursable by insurance or other sources and do not qualify for the medical expense deduction on a federal income tax return.

A qualified individual must be covered by a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) and not be covered by other health insurance with the exception of insurance for accidents, disability, dental care, vision care, or long-term care.

For calendar year 2017, a qualifying HDHP must have a deductible of at least $1,300 for self-only coverage or $2,600 for family coverage and must limit annual out-of-pocket expenses of the beneficiary to $6,550 for self-only coverage and $13,100 for family coverage.

Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs)

There are two types of Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs): the Archer MSA created to help self-employed individuals and employees of certain small employers, and the Medicare Advantage MSA, which is also an Archer MSA, and is designated by Medicare to be used solely to pay the qualified medical expenses of the account holder. To be eligible for a Medicare Advantage MSA, you must be enrolled in Medicare. Both MSAs require that you are enrolled in a high-deductible health plan (HDHP).

  • Self-only coverage. For taxable years beginning in 2017, the term “high deductible health plan” means, for self-only coverage, a health plan that has an annual deductible that is not less than $2,250 and not more than $3,350 (same as 2016), and under which the annual out-of-pocket expenses required to be paid (other than for premiums) for covered benefits do not exceed $4,500 (up $50 from 2016).
  • Family coverage. For taxable years beginning in 2017, the term “high deductible health plan” means, for family coverage, a health plan that has an annual deductible that is not less than $4,500 and not more than $6,750 (up $50 from 2016), and under which the annual out-of-pocket expenses required to be paid (other than for premiums) for covered benefits do not exceed $8,250 (up $100 from 2016).

Penalty for not Maintaining Minimum Essential Health Coverage

For calendar year 2017, the dollar amount used to determine the penalty for not maintaining minimum essential health coverage is $695.

AGI Limit for Deductible Medical Expenses

In 2017, the deduction threshold for deductible medical expenses remains at 10 percent (same as 2016) of adjusted gross income (AGI). Prior to January 1, 2017, if either you or your spouse were age 65 or older as of December 31, 2016, the 7.5 percent threshold that was in place in earlier tax years continued to apply. That provision expired at the end of 2016, however, and starting in 2017, the 10 percent of AGI threshold applies to everyone.

Eligible Long-Term Care Premiums

Premiums for long-term care are treated the same as health care premiums and are deductible on your taxes subject to certain limitations. For individuals age 40 or younger at the end of 2017, the limitation is $410. Persons more than 40 but not more than 50 can deduct $770. Those more than 50 but not more than 60 can deduct $1,530 while individuals more than 60 but not more than 70 can deduct $4,090. The maximum deduction is $5,110 and applies to anyone more than 70 years of age.

Medicare Taxes

The additional 0.9 percent Medicare tax on wages above $200,000 for individuals ($250,000 married filing jointly), which went into effect in 2013, remains in effect for 2017, as does the Medicare tax of 3.8 percent on investment (unearned) income for single taxpayers with modified adjusted gross income (AGI) more than $200,000 ($250,000 joint filers). Investment income includes dividends, interest, rents, royalties, gains from the disposition of property, and certain passive activity income. Estates, trusts, and self-employed individuals are all liable for the new tax.

Foreign Earned Income Exclusion

For 2017, the foreign earned income exclusion amount is $102,100, up from $101,300 in 2016.

Long-Term Capital Gains and Dividends

In 2017 tax rates on capital gains and dividends remain the same as 2016 rates; however threshold amounts are indexed for inflation. As such, for taxpayers in the lower tax brackets (10 and 15 percent), the rate remains 0 percent. For taxpayers in the four middle tax brackets, 25, 28, 33, and 35 percent, the rate is 15 percent. For an individual taxpayer in the highest tax bracket, 39.6 percent, whose income is at or above $418,400 ($470,700 married filing jointly), the rate for both capital gains and dividends is capped at 20 percent.

Pease and PEP (Personal Exemption Phaseout)

Both Pease (limitations on itemized deductions) and PEP (personal exemption phase-out) have been permanently extended (and indexed to inflation) for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2012, and in 2017, affect taxpayers with income at or above $261,500 for single filers and $313,800 for married filing jointly.

Estate and Gift Taxes

For an estate of any decedent during calendar year 2017, the basic exclusion amount is $5,490,000, indexed for inflation (up from $5,450,000 in 2016). The maximum tax rate remains at 40 percent. The annual exclusion for gifts remains at $14,000.

Individuals – Tax Credits

Adoption Credit

In 2017, a non-refundable (only those individuals with tax liability will benefit) credit of up to $13,570 is available for qualified adoption expenses for each eligible child.

Earned Income Tax Credit

For tax year 2017, the maximum earned income tax credit (EITC) for low and moderate income workers and working families rises to $6,318, up from $6,269 in 2016. The credit varies by family size, filing status, and other factors, with the maximum credit going to joint filers with three or more qualifying children.

Child Tax Credits

For tax year 2017, the child tax credit is $1,000 per child. The enhanced child tax credit was made permanent this year by the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act of 2016 (PATH). In addition to a $1,000 credit per qualifying child, an additional refundable credit equal to 15 percent of earned income in excess of $3,000 has been available since 2009.

Child and Dependent Care Credit

If you pay someone to take care of your dependent (defined as being under the age of 13 at the end of the tax year or incapable of self-care) in order to work or look for work, you may qualify for a credit of up to $1,050 or 35 percent of $3,000 of eligible expenses in 2017.For two or more qualifying dependents, you can claim up to 35 percent of $6,000 (or $2,100) of eligible expenses. For higher income earners the credit percentage is reduced, but not below 20 percent, regardless of the amount of adjusted gross income.

Individuals – Education

American Opportunity Tax Credit and Lifetime Learning Credits

The American Opportunity Tax Credit (formerly Hope Scholarship Credit) was extended to the end of 2017 by ATRA but was made permanent by PATH in 2016. The maximum credit is $2,500 per student. The Lifetime Learning Credit remains at $2,000 per return; however, the adjusted gross income amount used by joint filers to determine the reduction in the Lifetime Learning Credit is $112,000, up from $111,000 for tax year 2016.

Interest on Educational Loans

In 2017 (as in 2016), the $2,500 maximum deduction for interest paid on student loans is no longer limited to interest paid during the first 60 months of repayment. The deduction is phased out for higher-income taxpayers with modified AGI of more than $65,000 ($135,000 joint filers).

Individuals – Retirement

Contribution Limits

The elective deferral (contribution) limit for employees who participate in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan remains at $18,000. Contribution limits for SIMPLE plans remain at $12,500. The maximum compensation used to determine contributions increases to $270,000 (up from $265,000 in 2016).

Income Phase-out Ranges

The deduction for taxpayers making contributions to a traditional IRA is phased out for singles and heads of household who are covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan and have modified AGI between $62,000 and $72,000, up from $61,000 to $71,000.

For married couples filing jointly, in which the spouse who makes the IRA contribution is covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan, the phase-out range increases to $99,000 to $119,000, up from $98,000 to $118,000. For an IRA contributor who is not covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan and is married to someone who is covered, the deduction is phased out if the couple’s modified AGI is between $186,000 and $196,000, up from $184,000 and $194,000.

The modified AGI phase-out range for taxpayers making contributions to a Roth IRA is $118,000 to $133,000 for singles and heads of household, up from $117,000 to $132,000. For married couples filing jointly, the income phase-out range is $186,000 to $196,000, up from $184,000 to $194,000. The phase-out range for a married individual filing a separate return who makes contributions to a Roth IRA is not subject to an annual cost-of-living adjustment and remains $0 to $10,000.

Saver’s Credit

In 2017, the AGI limit for the saver’s credit (also known as the retirement savings contribution credit) for low and moderate income workers is $62,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $61,500 in 2016; $46,500 for heads of household, up from $46,125; and $31,000 for married individuals filing separately and for singles, up from $30,750.

Businesses

Standard Mileage Rates

The rate for business miles driven is 53.5 cents per mile for 2017, down from 54 cents per mile in 2016.

Section 179 Expensing

The Section 179 expense deduction was made permanent at $500,000 by the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act of 2016 (PATH). For equipment purchases, the maximum deduction is $510,000 of the first $2,030,000 million of qualifying equipment placed in service during the current tax year. The deduction is phased out dollar for dollar on amounts exceeding the $2 million threshold (adjusted for inflation beginning in tax year 2017) amount and eliminated above amounts exceeding $2.5 million. In addition, Section 179 is now indexed to inflation in increments of $10,000 for future tax years.

The 50 percent bonus depreciation has been extended through 2019. Businesses are able to depreciate 50 percent of the cost of equipment acquired and placed in service during 2015, 2016, and 2017. However, the bonus depreciation is reduced to 40 percent in 2018 and 30 percent in 2019.

Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC)

Extended through 2019, the Work Opportunity Tax Credit has been modified and enhanced for employers who hire long-term unemployed individuals (unemployed for 27 weeks or more) and is generally equal to 40 percent of the first $6,000 of wages paid to a new hire.

Research & Development Tax Credit

Starting in 2017, businesses with less than $50 million in gross receipts are able to use this credit to offset alternative minimum tax. Certain start-up businesses that might not have any income tax liability will be able to offset payroll taxes with the credit as well.

Employee Health Insurance Expenses

For taxable years beginning in 2017, the dollar amount is $26,200. This amount is used for limiting the small employer health insurance credit and for determining who is an eligible small employer for purposes of the credit.

Employer-provided Transportation Fringe Benefits

If you provide transportation fringe benefits to your employees, in 2017 the maximum monthly limitation for transportation in a commuter highway vehicle as well as any transit pass is $255 and the monthly limitation for qualified parking is $255. Parity for employer-provided mass transit and parking benefits was made permanent by PATH.

While this checklist outlines important tax changes for 2017, additional changes in tax law are more than likely to arise during the year ahead.

 

 

 

Source: Abedian & Totlian

Market Update: February 6, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks tick lower to begin quiet week. The S&P 500 is modestly lower in early trading, kicking off a week with little upcoming in the way of economic data and policy; earnings will likely take center stage. The S&P logged a 0.7% gain on Friday following the monthly jobs report, though stocks ended last week little changed despite a barrage of bellwether earnings reports. The S&P climbed 0.1% on the week on the back of a 2.4% gain in the healthcare sector. Asian indexes closed mostly higher overnight; the Hang Seng (+1.0%) outperformed the broader region despite a weak Caixin Services PMI report. European stocks are mostly lower in afternoon trading; Italy’s MIB (-1.6%) leads the way lower while the STOXX Europe 600 is down 0.4%. Finally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down to 2.44%, WTI crude oil ($53.65/barrel) is lower by 0.3%, and COMEX gold ($1228/oz.) is rising 0.6%.

MacroView_header

  • Earnings pace picked up over the past week. S&P 500 estimates for the fourth quarter jumped 1.2% over the past week and are now tracking to an 8% year-over-year increase, 1.8% above initial estimates on January 1, 2017 (Thomson Reuters estimates). The latest improvement was driven largely by the energy sector, which had gotten off to a difficult start and now may produce its first earnings gain in more than two years. Financials and technology, the fastest earnings growers for the quarter, also saw earnings tick up over the past week. Guidance has been relatively good as 2017 S&P 500 estimates have fallen just 0.7% during earnings season, better than average (they typically drop 2-3%) and a positive sign, although only about 55% of S&P 500 companies have reported thus far. This week is another busy one for earnings with 89 S&P 500 companies slated to report.

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  •  Weekly gains again. After a 0.7% jump on Friday, the S&P 500 managed to squeak out a 0.1% gain for the week – the first back-to-back weekly win since Thanksgiving. The S&P 500 just missed out on a new all-time closing high Friday, but it did set a new weekly all-time high. Continuing a recent trend, equity prices gapped at the open, then did very little the rest of the day. In fact, the S&P 500 has now gone 34 consecutive days without a 1% daily range – tying the all-time record from 1995. It has now been 79 consecutive days without a 1% close lower for the S&P 500, the longest stretch in more than 20 years.
  • China continues its post-holiday bad news drip. More Caixin (mid-sized and smaller companies) data were released overnight. Composite PMI (both services and manufacturing) were down as manufacturing disappointed last week, while services fell this week to 53.1 from 53.4 in the prior month. However, the numbers still suggest expansion in the economy, just at a slower pace. This is the eleventh consecutive month of expansion. Asian markets (save Australia) had a positive session overnight and the Chinese yuan strengthened slightly.
  • European data shows continued expansion. European data released this morning show economic expansion, though not all numbers were rosy. German factory orders grew at 5.2% for the month, much better than expected. Retail PMIs also showed expansion (above 50) for most, but these numbers were weaker than expected in Germany and region wide. Of the major countries in Europe, Italy remains the weak link, with retail PMI below 50 since the end of 2015 and weaker than expected this month. Markets are weaker across the board this morning in Europe.
  • Quiet week ahead. Last week (January 30-February 3) was an unusually busy one for economic data and policy. This week (February 6-10) is not. While China will begin to report its January 2017 data set, there are few if any potentially market moving data reports on tap in the U.S., Europe, or Japan. There are a handful of Fed speakers, ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech, and central banks in emerging markets will be busy as Mexico is expected to raise rates and India is expected to cut. The U.K. parliament will continue to debate and then vote this week on whether to trigger Article 50 and officially start the process of leaving the EU.
  • NAFTA. This week we’ll take a look at the politics behind NAFTA-the North American Free Trade Agreement-and its impact on U.S. trade, employment, and wages-as the Trump Administration continues to make changes to U.S. trade policy.
  • A technical look at things. Long-term technicals continue to look very promising, with multiple U.S. equity indexes breaking out to new all-time highs. This type of market breadth bodes well for a possible continuation of the equity bull market. One potential worry is seasonality, as the month of February is historically weak. Digging in more, in the calendar year following a presidential election, February is the worst month on average. One other near-term worry is overall market sentiment is rather optimistic. From a contrarian point of view, this could be a potential warning sign.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Harker (Hawk)
  • ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels

Wednesday

  • UK: House of Commons to Vote on Article 50
  • India: Reserve Bank of India Meeting (Rate Cut Expected)

Thursday

  • Mexico: Central Bank Meeting (Rate Hike Expected)
  • China: Money Supply and New Loan Growth (Jan)
  • China: Imports and Exports (Jan)

Saturday

  • Fischer (Dove)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

Market Update: January 30, 2017

Provided by thetaxhaven/Flickr

MarketUpdate_header

  • Markets sell off ahead of Fed meeting, corporate earnings. Stocks are down across the globe as investors await key central bank meetings this week and another string of high profile corporate earnings. The S&P 500 drifted 0.1% lower in an unremarkable session Friday; gains in healthcare (+0.8%) and telecom (+0.7%) were offset by losses in energy (-0.9%) and real estate (-0.9%). Many markets were closed Monday in Asia to mark the Lunar New Year, although Japan’s Nikkei Composite slid 0.5% as investors sought safety in the yen following President Trump’s executive order on immigration. In Europe, both bonds and stocks are lower in afternoon trading following German inflation data, which came in at the highest level in more than three years. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil ($52.76/barrel) is lower, COMEX gold ($1192/oz.) is up modestly, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down a basis point to 2.48%.

 

MacroView_header

  • Little upside in Q4 numbers but there are bright spots. With 169 S&P 500 companies (about 34% of the index) having reported results for the fourth quarter of 2016, year-over-year earnings growth is tracking to a 6.8% increase. Although that pace is better than the 4.3% pace in the prior quarter, the modest upside to prior (January 1, 2017) estimates is disappointing. Financials and technology results are among the bright spots, while we are encouraged by the increase–albeit modest–in overall S&P 500 estimates for the second half of 2017 that at least partly reflect policy upside and the oil rebound. This week is one of the biggest of the season with 109 S&P 500 companies slated to report fourth quarter results.

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  • Still value in value? Despite its strong 2016, there may still be some value in value. While value (based on the Russell 1000 Value Index) has lagged its growth counterpart so far in 2017, we see several reasons to like value stocks, including accelerating economic and profit growth and the better outlook for financials. But we believe the growth side has enough going for it, including a positive outlook for the technology sector and attractive relative valuations, that we suggest investors generally maintain balance across the styles.
  • Very busy week ahead. Several times a year, the global economic and event calendar jams up with a dozen or so high-profile events, and this is one of those weeks. The Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all meet, and while none is expected to change policy, it’s the first meeting of the year for each. On the political front, the U.K. Parliament will vote on whether to authorize Prime Minister Theresa May to move forward with Brexit, and later in the week, the leaders of the European Union will meet to discuss what’s next. India will release its budget for 2017-2018, and China’s markets are closed for the Lunar New Year. This week is an extremely busy week for data with January data on Institute for Supply Management (ISM), vehicle sales, and the January employment report. Overseas data include GDP reports in the Eurozone, India, Mexico, and Indonesia.
  • More small ranges. We’ve been talking about the slow action lately and last week was no different. In fact, the daily range for the S&P 500 on Friday was only 0.32%–which is in the bottom 1% of all daily ranges since 1970. Incredibly, Thursday was actually a smaller range. Even though the S&P 500 was down the last two days of the week, it was one of the 18 smallest two-day losing streaks (down 0.16%) since 2000. Lastly, the S&P 500 has now gone 29 consecutive days without a 1% intraday move, the longest such streak since late 1995.
  • Dow 30,000? Barron’s had a cover over the weekend titled “Next Stop Dow 30,000” and as you might expect, it caused quite a stir. Many noted this cover could be a  bearish signal, as the well-known ‘magazine cover indicator’ is used as a contrarian indicator. Once something is so universally agreed upon and it makes the cover of a magazine, the trend very well could be closer to the end than the beginning. The classic example of this is the “Death of Equities” BusinessWeek cover that came out near the 1982 low in equities. Turning to the Barron’s article, what is important to note is the forecast of 30,000 by 2025 – which comes out to about a 5% annual gain, well in line with the long-term average for the Dow. So maybe this cover isn’t quite as outlandish as it might appear at first blush.

MonitoringWeek_header

Sunday

  • Chinese Lunar New Year; Chinese Markets Closed All Week

Monday

  • Germany: CPI (Jan)

Tuesday

  • Employment Cost Index (Q4)
  • Chicago Area PMI (Jan)
  • Eurozone: GDP (Q4)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Jan)
  • Germany: Unemployment Change (Jan)
  • UK Parliament Begins Debate on Article 50 (Brexit)
  • Japan: Bank of Japan Meeting (No Change Expected)
  • China: Official Mfg. PMI (Jan)
  • China: Official Non-Mfg. PMI (Jan)
  • India: GDP (2016)

Wednesday

  • ADP Employment (Jan)
  • ISM Mfg. (Jan)
  • Vehicle Sales (Jan)
  • FOMC Statement
  • UK Parliament Expected to Vote on Authorizing Article 50 (Brexit)
  • India: 2017-18 Budget Speech

Thursday

  • UK: Bank of England Meeting (No Change Expected)
  • China: Caixin Mfg. PMI (Jan)

Friday

  • Employment Report (Jan)
  • ISM Non-Mfg. (Jan)
  • Evans* (Dove)
  • EU Leaders Meet in Malta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update: January 23, 2017

© AP Photo/Francois Mori

MarketUpdate_header

  • Stocks move lower to begin busy earnings week. U.S. equities are slightly lower in early trading, starting off a busy week for earnings and President Trump’s first official week in office. The S&P edged down slightly last week, with both healthcare and financials posting losses of at least 1.5%; consumer staples was the only notable outperformer, climbing 2.1%. Stocks finished mixed overnight in Asia; Japan’s Nikkei (-1.3%) dropped sharply amid a strengthening yen, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) rose.  European markets are modestly lower in afternoon trading as the U.K.’s FTSE (-0.5%) is leading the way lower on the heels of a multi-week rally that included 15 consecutive higher closes. Finally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down slightly to 2.46%, WTI crude oil ($52.42/barrel) is up 1.5% following encouraging comments on supply from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, and COMEX gold ($1211/oz.) is higher by 0.5%.

MacroView_header

  • Good start to earnings season for financials but little Q4 upside. With 62 S&P 500 companies having reported results thus far, earnings (65%) and revenue (44%) beat rates are both slightly disappointing relative to recent trends based on Thomson data (other sources have different numbers). As a result, the growth rate at 6.3% is only marginally higher than estimates at quarter end (6.1%). At the sector level, financials upside has been offset by shortfalls in energy and consumer discretionary companies. Guidance has generally been good, as S&P 500 estimates for 2017 have held steady on energy increases, which-although it’s early in the season-is a positive development given the historical pattern of reductions in estimates. This week (January 23-27) is a busy one with 70 S&P 500 companies reporting.

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  • GDP, Fed quiet period, PMIs on tap this week. The Federal Reserve Bank will honor its unofficial “quiet period” ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, but market participants will have plenty to digest this week nonetheless, especially on the political front. President Trump’s cabinet appointees continue their confirmation process in the U.S. Senate, and the U.K.’s Supreme Court is expected to make a key ruling on Brexit on Tuesday, January 24. On the data front, Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) reports in the U.S. and U.K. are likely to get top billing from the media, but the manufacturing PMIs for January 2017 in the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, and Japan are more forward looking and more important.
  • Fed NowCasts tracking to 2.5% with first estimate of Q4 GDP coming at the end of the week. The Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) and New York Fed are now both producing NowCasts, regularly updated data-driven models that provide forecasts of the quarter’s GDP starting months before the actual release. Taking the average of the two NowCast models, GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017 is tracking to a solid 2.5%, helped by a pickup in business spending. NowCasts have been no more (or less) accurate than consensus forecasts, but can provide valuable added insight on how GDP expectations are evolving.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Torino
  • Japan: Nikkei’s Mfg. PMI

Tuesday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Jan)
  • CBO Releases its Economic and Budget Outlook for 2017-2027
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg. PMI (Jan)
  • UK Supreme Court Rules on Brexit/Article 50

Wednesday

  • Germany: Ifo (Jan)

Thursday

  • New Home Sales (Dec)
  • Leading Indicators (Dec)
  • UK: GDP (Q4)
  • Japan: CPI (Dec)

Friday

  • GDP (Q4)
  • Durable Goods Orders and Shipments (Dec)
  • Eurozone: Money Supply and Bank Lending (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. A money market investment is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although money markets have traditionally sought to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. Technical Analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical Analysis should be used in conjunction with Fundamental Analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.