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Your Money: Sharing Family Getaways Without Any Cottage Conflicts

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Picture it: 40 picturesque acres nestled in Wisconsin lake country.

That is the ideal getaway the grandfather of Chicago financial planner Tim Obendorf’s wife built around 50 years ago. Then the property passed to the next generation, with ownership shared by four people.

Now they are thinking about the next generation: 11 potential owners.

Without the right planning, that paradise could turn into hell.

As brothers, sisters, parents, aunts, uncles, cousins and grandparents gather this summer at family homes to go hiking, canoeing or swimming, there will also be arguments over schedules, property taxes or mortgage costs, and upkeep duties, along with the thousand other matters that come with shared homeownership.

“Whenever a number of families are under the same roof, conflicts are going to arise,” said Jill Shipley, managing director of family dynamics for Abbot Downing, a division of Wells Fargo that handles high-net-worth families and foundations.

That is why Obendorf’s family has already logged a couple of family meetings. “It’s never going to be perfect, but you have to decide you value the place, more than the hassles of working through family issues,” said Obendorf.

It is not surprising that vacation homes have become a point of contention. Many vacation homeowners are baby boomers: They possess the bulk of the nation’s assets and are projected to hold over 50 percent by 2020, according to a study by the Deloitte Center for Financial Services. They are now beginning to retire as they hit their 60s and 70s.

The potential problems are plentiful: Is the place big enough for everybody? Who gets it on July 4th weekend? Do they split costs equally? Who cleans up, handles repairs, or stocks the fridge?

And the big one: When the owners eventually pass on – who gets the place?

How can families get the most out of shared vacation properties this summer, without either going broke or killing each other? Some tips from the experts:

Draw Up a Calendar

Just like season tickets for a sports team, some dates will be in high demand. So if the property is not big enough to handle multiple families at once – or, let’s face it, you just do not get along – pick your spots. “Establish a rotating lottery each year, and allow each family member to pick their respective dates,” suggests Kevin Reardon, a financial planner in Pewaukee, Wisconsin.

Write Down a Policy

Everyone has different opinions of what a getaway should be, so hash it out and put it all down on paper. One key item: Whether ongoing costs like property taxes, homeowner’s association dues and repairs are split equally, or allocated based on usage.

Create an Opt-out

A sure way to guarantee family resentment: One member being forced into an arrangement they do not want. If a family cottage is being passed to the next generation, allow an escape hatch that permits one member’s share to be bought out by their siblings. After all, not everyone might be able to use the property to the same extent, especially if they have moved far away.

Bring in a Pro

Siblings, of course, do not always get along. In fact, 15 percent of adult siblings report arguing over money, according to a new survey from Ameriprise Financial. To make sure everyone is heard, bringing in a trained facilitator is probably your best bet, advises Shipley.

Have the Discussion Now

“I have been in many family meetings where the kids ask, ‘I wonder what mom and dad would have wanted?'” says Shipley. So if you are fortunate enough that the family matriarch and patriarch are still around, arrange a family meeting and find out what they envision for the property in the decades to come.

Maybe they want it to stay in the family, as a legacy for the grandkids. Or maybe, because of family circumstances like far-flung siblings, it would be wiser to just sell the property and split the proceeds.

Set up a Trust

One way to take future financial squabbles out of the equation altogether: If families have the resources, they should create a trust to “fund the maintenance and ongoing use of the property in perpetuity,” says Shipley. “That is one solution to reduce conflict, and keep the property in the family for generations.”

 

 

 

Written By: Chris Taylor
Source: Reuters

Nine Characteristics of Successful Entrepreneurs

Have you ever thought about striking out on your own? After all, being your own boss can be an exciting prospect. However, owning a business isn’t for everyone. To be a successful entrepreneur, you must have — or develop — certain personality traits. Here are nine characteristics you should ideally possess to start and run your own business:

1. Motivation

Entrepreneurs are enthusiastic, optimistic and future-oriented. They believe they’ll be successful and are willing to risk their resources in pursuit of profit. They have high energy levels and are sometimes impatient. They are always thinking about their business and how to increase their market share. Are you self-motivated enough to do this, and can you stay motivated for extended periods of time? Can you bounce back in the face of challenges?

2. Creativity and Persuasiveness

Successful entrepreneurs have the creative capacity to recognize and pursue opportunities. They possess strong selling skills and are both persuasive and persistent. Are you willing to promote your business tirelessly and look for new ways to get the word out about your product or service?

3. Versatility 

Company workers can usually rely on a staff or colleagues to provide service or support. As an entrepreneur, you’ll typically start out as a “solopreneur,” meaning you will be on your own for a while. You may not have the luxury of hiring a support staff initially. Therefore, you will end up wearing several different hats, including secretary, bookkeeper and so on. You need to be mentally prepared to take on all these tasks at the beginning. Can you do that?

4. Superb Business Skills 

Entrepreneurs are naturally capable of setting up the internal systems, procedures and processes necessary to operate a business. They are focused on cash flow, sales and revenue at all times. Successful entrepreneurs rely on their business skills, know-how and contacts. Evaluate your current talents and professional network. Will your skills, contacts and experience readily transfer to the business idea you want to pursue?

5. Risk Tolerance

Launching any entrepreneurial venture is risky. Are you willing to assume that risk? You can reduce your risk by thoroughly researching your business concept, industry and market. You can also test your concept on a small scale. Can you get a letter of intent from prospective customers to purchase? If so, do you think customers would actually go through with their transaction?

6. Drive 

As an entrepreneur, you are in the driver’s seat, so you must be proactive in your approaches to everything. Are you a doer — someone willing to take the reins — or would you rather someone else do things for you?

7. Vision

One of your responsibilities as founder and head of your company is deciding where your business should go. That requires vision. Without it, your boat will be lost at sea. Are you the type of person who looks ahead and can see the big picture?

8. Flexibility and Open-Mindedness

While entrepreneurs need a steadfast vision and direction, they will face a lot of unknowns. You will need to be ready to tweak any initial plans and strategies. New and better ways of doing things may come along as well. Can you be open-minded and flexible in the face of change?

9. Decisiveness

As an entrepreneur, you won’t have room for procrastination or indecision. Not only will these traits stall progress, but they can also cause you to miss crucial opportunities that could move you toward success. Can you make decisions quickly and seize the moment?

 

 

 

Written By: Ruchira Agrawal
Source: Monster

Raising Kids to Be Smart About Money

Young minds are programmed to absorb and copy the behaviors around them, which means the sooner you instill proper money management skills, the more prone your kids are to become mature and responsible stewards of their own cash-flow in the future.
“Becoming financially literate early in life is fundamentally important to your financial well-being as an adult,” says Micah Fraim, award-winning CPA and best-selling author.

“I was pinching pennies at five years old, calculating the cost of grocery items per ounce, refusing to buy expensive clothes unless they were on-sale and foregoing scoops of ice cream from the ice cream shop, so I could buy multiple gallons at the grocery store,” Fraim says. “Now as an adult, I still have that same mindset and live well below my means.”

The following kid-approved strategies help you teach the core tenets of being financially savvy; in terms they’ll understand and appreciate. Consider how you can use them to teach your little ones to be smart about money.

iStock-piggy-bank

Find Opportunities for Lessons

At some point, your child will inevitably deplete their allowance on impulse purchases, rather than holding out for the more expensive item they’ve been asking for. Instead of giving them more money, or buying it for them, use this as an opportunity to demonstrate that money is a finite resource, which must be allocated over an extended period. Once you spend, it’s gone until you can make more.

Have a conversation about what else they could have done with that money, or how much longer they would have needed to save to get the big-ticket item they wanted. Perhaps give an example of when you spent foolishly, or better yet, saved enough money to buy something important, like your house or car.

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Demonstrate that Income Is Earned

Chores are an easy way to teach children that money must be earned. This tangible incentive for contributing to your household shows them that have to work for what they want, and even do things they may not want to do—i.e. vacuuming and doing the dishes.

The concept of having to earn your money is a positive outcome of rewarding children financially for completing chores. However, some parents find that this method doesn’t necessarily teach money management, making it a bad way to teach children how to be smart about money. The key to avoiding the latter is the set-up.

Susan Borowski, mother and author for Money Crashers, shares how she set this up with her teenage son:

“As a contributing member of the family, my 13-year-old son is expected to do certain chores around the house for free. He can earn money for tackling larger tasks, many of which he can choose, some of which he cannot; the amount he earns depends on the difficulty of the task or how long it takes. This forces us to discuss money each time he takes on a larger task.”

This shows them that they have control over how much they earn, rather than it being a given.

Secondly, keep chores focused on money management with an app like Chore Monster so children can track what they’ve done and earned. This is an easy way to establish a record-keeping system, for both chores and allowance, seeing increases or decreases in money earned over time.

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Establish a Record-Keeping System

When your child is consistently earning allowance or money for chores, it’s important that they’re able to account for what happens with that money. The more emphasis you put on this piece of the earning, the more they’ll see the value of managing their funds. They’ll start to notice wasteful spending habits and identify which pitfalls to avoid during their next allowance payout.

Designate a folder where they can stockpile receipts and a notebook where they can track all purchases. This simple method of financial reporting is an ideal precursor to balancing a checkbook, analyzing bank statements, or creating a monthly budget.

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Use Visual Aids to Your Advantage

Although the “piggy bank” is a time-honored childhood favorite, this approach to money management doesn’t allow your child to see the positive outcome of their coin stashing. For a more functional alternative, use a transparent mason jar or clear plastic Tupperware container, both of which gives them an unobstructed view of the progressive financial increase that comes from diligent and habitual saving. This tool makes the abstract concept of saving easy to see and understand.

You can also open a bank account for older children. This gives them a chance to become familiar with bank statements, which act as a visual aid. Each time a new statement comes in, they can sit down and look at how much money was put into the bank account and how that’s changed month-over-month. Many banks now offer online portals, as well, where your children can see progress represented in bar and pie graphs; these may be easier to understand and digest.

05-09-16-six-money-lessons-for-kids

Encourage Them to Set a Savings Goal

There’s a sense of accomplishment and empowerment in reaching a goal with no shortcuts taken or assistance received. Channel this mindset when encouraging your child to practice economical behaviors. Next time they express interest in the latest gadget, suggest they purchase it themselves and develop a step-by-step plan together, so they feel equipped for the undertaking. This process of setting aside money with a specific goal in mind reinforces the gratification gained from being smart about money and purchasing the item without any help.

It’s never too early to start teaching your kids about how to be financially savvy. Too many people don’t learn about personal finance until it’s too late — like when they’re buried in student loans — so teaching these skills early on is important for setting your children up for success later in life.

 

 

 

Written By: Jessica Thiefels
Source: PBS

Weekly Market Recap – 7/3/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: July 3, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Stocks end first half with down week. Nasdaq lost ~2% on tech weakness, Dow -0.2%, S&P 500 Index -0.6%; Russell 2000 ended flat. Market weakness partly attributed to hawkish global central bank comments, which pushed yield on 10-year Treasuries up 15 basis points (0.15% to 2.30%), pressured the dollar. Favorable bank stress test results boosted financials, renewed focus on reflation trade into banks, energy.
  • Oil bounce continued, WTI crude oil +7%, bringing session winning streak to seven and price back above $46/bbl. Friday brought first weekly drop in rig count since January.
  • Strong first half despite recent choppiness. Nasdaq rallied 14%, its best first half since 2009, S&P 500 (+8%) produced its best first half since 2013 (Dow matched S&P’s first half gain).

Overnight & This Morning

  • S&P 500 higher by ~0.3%, following gains in Europe. Quiet session likely with early holiday close (1 p.m. ET).
  • Solid gains in Europe overnight– Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, German DAX 0.6%, France CAC 40 +1.0%. Solid purchasing managers’ survey data (June Markit PMI 57.4).
  • Asian markets closed mostly higher, but with minimal gains.
  • Crude oil up 0.4%, poised for eighth straight gain.
  • Treasuries little changed. 10-year yield at 2.29%. Early bond market close at 2 p.m. ET.
  • Japanese Tankan survey of business conditions suggested Japanese economy may have increased in the second quarter, manufacturing activity is at multi-year highs.
  • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, generally considered more reliable than official Chinese PMI, exceeded expectations with a 50.4 reading in June, up from 49.6 in May.
  • Today’s economic calendar includes key ISM manufacturing index, construction spending.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Several key data points this week, despite the holiday-shortened week. Today brings the important Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), followed by minutes from the June 13-14 Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s employment report. Key overseas data includes services PMI surveys in Europe, China’s manufacturing PMI, and the Japanese Tankan sentiment survey (see below). Market participants will scrutinize this week’s data for clues as to the path of the Fed’s rate hike and balance sheet normalization timetables. Views are diverging again, though not as dramatically as in late 2015/early 2016.

Macro Notes

  • The first six months in the books. It was a solid start to the year, with the S&P 500 up 8.2%, the best start to a year since 2013. Yet, this year is going down in history as one of the least volatile starts to a year ever. For instance, the largest pullback has been only 2.8%–which is the second smallest first-half of the year pullback ever. Also, only four days have closed up or down 1% or more–the last time that happened was in 1972. Today, we will take a closer look at the first half of the year and what it could mean for the second half of the year.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • ISM Mfg. (Jun)
  • Construction Spending (May)
  • Italy: Markit Italy Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • France: Markit France Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • UK: Markit UK Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (May)
  • Russia: GDP (Q1)
  • Japan: Vehicle Sales (Jun)

Tuesday

  • Happy July 4th Holiday!
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Services PMI (Jun)
  • China: Caixin China Services PMI (Jun)

Wednesday

  • Factory Orders (May)
  • Durable Goods Orders (May)
  • Capital Goods Shipments and Orders (May)
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes for Jun 14
  • Italy: Markit Italy Services PMI (Jun)
  • France: Markit France Services PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Jun)
  • UK: Markit UK Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Retail Sales (May)

Thursday

  • ADP Employment (Jun)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 1)
  • Trade Balance (May)
  • Germany: Factory Orders (May)
  • ECB: Account of the Monetary Policy Meeting
  • Mexico: Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
  • Japan: Labor Cash Earnings (May)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (Jun)
  • Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (Jun)
  • Average Weekly Hours (Jun)
  • Labor Force Participation & Underemployment Rates(Jun)
  • Germany: Industrial Production (May)
  • France: Industrial Production (May)
  • Italy: Retail Sales (May)
  • UK: Industrial Production (May)
  • UK: Trade Balance (May)

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

How Mark Zuckerberg Started – Infographic

At the young age of 10, Mark was already bored with school. His father noticed and introduced him to the computer. Together they wrote a program that connected the computer at home with the computer at his father’s office. And the rest, as they say, is history.

How Mark Zuckerberg Started – Infographic

 

Source: Funders and Founders

Weekly Market Recap – 6/26/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: June 26, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • After closing once again at record levels last Monday, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index battled a wave of sector rotation for the balance of the week, finishing higher by the slightest of margins.
  • It was the 2nd consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500, as increases in healthcare (+3.7%) and technology (+2.3%) offset weakness in the energy (-2.9%), financials (-1.8%), and utilities (-1.8%) sectors.  Positive news on drug development and potential changes to the Affordable Care Act drove healthcare higher, while continued weakness in WTI crude oil ($43.00; -4.0% for the week) pressured the energy sector.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.14%, its second lowest close of 2017, pressuring the U.S. dollar, which edged down -0.2% on Friday.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Asian stocks rose for a third day, led by technology companies.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose +2.0% and equity markets in China and Hong Kong had gains approaching 1.0%. In Japan, The Nikkei managed to climb despite a report from the Bank of International Settlements warning of dollar denominated risk on bank balance sheets.
  • European stocks rebounded from three weeks of losses. German business confidence hit a record in June, but Italy had to bail out two banks totaling $19 billion.
  • Commodities – WTI crude oil rose, trimming its biggest monthly decline in one year. Gold extended its decline to the lowest level in almost six weeks.
  • U.S. stock futures are up slightly as the dollar climbed and Treasury yields jumped after several Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate increases.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Mixed signals. The financial markets are sending mixed signals, trading within a tight range in an extended expansion. The debate now centers on if the U.S. economy can continue to exhibit growth in output and profits (signal from stocks) or it may slip into a recession (signal from Treasuries). Our view is that though the growth rate in manufacturing may have peaked, we expect Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) to remain in expansion territory. While auto sales may be down ~5.0% from last year, the rise in household formation suggests pent up demand remains in the housing market. Finally, with solid employment levels and improving wages, consumption is well-positioned to support growth and any clarity on regulation, infrastructure, and tax plans could provide an additional boost.
  • Brexit. Friday marked the 1st anniversary of the controversial Brexit vote, which called for the U.K. to leave the European Union (EU).  To mark the occasion, the pound sterling rose +0.2% to $1.27, paring its weekly decline, and the FTSE 100 Index fell -0.2% on Friday. While the U.K. is the largest importer of the EU countries, the FTSE 100 is largely comprised of exporters, with 2/3rds of its revenue generated overseas.  This helps explain why the approximately 15.0% drop in the pound sterling was accompanied by a rise of a similar magnitude (+17.0%) in the FTSE 100 over the past year.

Macro Notes

  • Technicals continue to look strong. One of the strongest aspects of this equity bull market has been that the technicals have and continue to support higher prices. This week we take a closer look at the global bull market and why broad participation suggests it still has legs.
  • 41 weeks and counting. The S&P 500 has now gone 41 straight weeks without closing lower by 2% or more, but that’s not even the most surprising point.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Durable Goods Orders (May)
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Report (May)
  • Cap Goods Shipments and Orders (May)
  • Dallas Fed Mfg. Report (Jun)
  • ECB: Draghi
  • BOE: Carney
  • BOJ: Kuroda

Tuesday

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Richmond Fed Mfg. Report (Jun)
  • Italy: Mfg. & Consumer Confidence

Wednesday

  • Advance Report on Goods Trade Balance (May)
  • Wholesale Inventories (May)
  • Pending Home Sales (May)
  • France: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Money Supply (May)
  • Itally: PPI & CPI (Jun)
  • Bank of Canada: Poloz
  • Japan: Retail Sales (May)

Thursday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • Germany: CPI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • BOJ: Harada
  • Japan: National CPI (May)
  • Japan: Industrial Production (May)
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Jun)

Friday

  • Personal Income (May)
  • Consumer Spending (May)
  • Chicago PMI (May)
  • Core Inflation (May)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • France: CPI (Jun)
  • Germany: Unemployment Change (Jun)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Jun)
  • Canada: GDP (Apr)
  • Japan: Vehicle Production (May)
  • Japan: Housing Starts (May)
  • Japan: Construction Orders (May)

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Weekly Market Recap – 6/19/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: June 19, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Stocks little changed Friday. Intra-market moves were in focus, particularly ~3% difference between energy (+1.7%) and consumer staples (-1.0%)
  • Consumer staples slide. Grocers weighed after Amazon-Whole Foods acquisition proposal announced.
  • European markets rose on news that Greece would receive next tranche of aid, ebbing political risk. MSCI EAFE +1.1% Friday.
  • Treasuries yields down to 2.16% after housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment miss estimates.
  • Mixed week for broad averages. Dow (+0.5%), S&P 500 (+0.1%), Russell 2000 (-1.0%). Industrials (+1.7%) topped sector rankings, technology (-1.1%) fell most.

Overnight & This Morning

  • U.S. following Europe higher on market-friendly outcome French election, which strengthened Macron’s mandate for economic reforms.
  • WTI crude oil ($45.11/bbl.) holding Friday’s gains after -2.4% last week.
  • European markets applaud French election outcome. European Stoxx 600 Index +0.9% midday, led by Paris’ CAC (+1.2%); Brexit talks underway in Brussels.
  • Asian markets also higher. MSCI Asia Pacific Index+0.6%, China up on pending MSCI decision (expected Tuesday) to include country’s shares in its global indexes. Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%.
  • Treasuries down, 10-year yield up slightly to 2.18%

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Our 2017 S&P 500 Index forecast is not a bearish call. Some have raised the question, why own stocks here if the S&P 500 is already at our year-end target return for the year of 6-9%? First, we expect cyclical sectors and smaller cap stocks to fare better than the S&P 500 in the second half; second, we believe dips will provide opportunities for gains; and third, fiscal policy is a wildcard that could potentially push stocks ahead of our forecast.
  • Earnings estimates have stayed resilient. Estimates have held firm over the past month and still reflect near 10% earnings growth over the next 12 months. We expect earnings gains to support stocks in the second half of the year. Policy has the potential to drive additional earnings gains in 2018 that may begin to be priced in during late 2017, offering upside potential to our forecast.

Macro Notes

  • Beware the ides of June? As we’ve noted before, the second half of June tends to see some seasonal equity weakness. Breaking it down further, last week was option expiration for the month of June and the week after this event (this week) has historically been very weak. In fact, going back 14 years this week has been higher only once for the S&P 500, and that was in 2013. Going back to 2000, this week has been higher only three times, making it the least likely week of the year to be higher.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Germany: PPI (May)
  • BOJ: Minutes of Apr 26-27 Meeting
  • China: Conference Board China LEI (May)

Wednesday

  • Existing Home Sales (May)
  • BOJ: Kuroda & Iwata
  • Japan: All Industry Activity (Apr)
  • Japan: Machine Tool Orders (May)

 Thursday

  • LEI (May)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Mfg. PMI (Jun)

 Friday

  • Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • New Home Sales (May)
  • France: GDP (Q1)
  • France: Markit France Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Mfg. Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • Russia: GDP (Q1)
  • Canada: CPI (May)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.