Setting the Stage for the Coming Recession

Brian Smedley, head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group at Guggenheim Investments, explains what the data tell us about the timing and severity of the coming recession.

Key Takeaways:

  • Fed rate cuts could start to have more impact, but so far data are consistent with our recession forecast, which also suggests the next recession will be of average severity.
  • Limited monetary and fiscal policy space may prolong the recession; the Fed doesn’t have much room to maneuver on rates, and the effect of 2018’s one-time tax cuts has worn off.
  • When the business cycle turns, the Fed is likely to pull out all the stops by cutting rates to the zero bound and recommencing asset purchases.
  • Historical evidence of “successful” Fed cuts is mixed, however, and it is difficult to correctly time policy moves.
  • At this point in the cycle, we believe there is more risk to the downside than upside and caution investors to focus on capital preservation.

Source: Guggenheim Investments 

Money Management 101 for Single Parents Going it Alone

1. Determine What You Owe

As the head of the household, it’s up to you to make sure that your entire family’s needs are being met. In order to do that, you need to be extremely diligent when it comes to money management basics. This is not something that will happen by accident. Instead, you must plan for it and work toward it.

The first step is to set up your “office.” Gather all of your bills, a calculator, a pencil, and your checkbook.

I would also recommend that you grab an old binder that you can use to keep track of your financial data and a shoebox for storing paid bills.

Now you’re ready to begin:

  • Go through all of your bills, and pay anything that is due within the next week.
  • If you have bills coming due that you cannot pay, notify the company and ask them to set up a payment plan with you.
  • Print a copy of the chart “Paying Down My Debts” or make your own.
  • On the chart, list all of your debts, including any car loans, student loans, and credit card debt.
  • In addition, list the total balance left to be paid on all of these debts, and the percentage rate you are paying.
  • For now, leave the fourth column of the chart blank, and store it in your “Financial Data” binder.

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2. Eliminate Joint Debt

Before we create a plan for paying down your debt, it’s important to consider some special circumstances that may apply to you as a single parent. I asked LaToya Irby, Credit/Debt Management Expert, to share her expertise on handling joint debt:

Wolf: Let’s say a single mom still shares a credit card with her ex. What should she do?

Irby: Ideally, she would want her ex to transfer his portion of any joint balances onto his own credit card. That way, everyone is paying for their own debt.

Wolf: What about leaving both names on the account, and agreeing to pay part of the amount due? Is that ever advisable?

Irby: No. If you’ve made an agreement with your ex to split the debt payments on accounts that include your name, and your ex-misses a payment, it’s going to hurt your credit. If the ex-fails to pay altogether, the creditors and collectors will come after you. Not even a divorce decree can change the terms of a joint credit card agreement. In the credit card issuer’s eyes, you’re just as much responsible for post-divorce accounts as before.

Wolf: What about situations when a couple’s divorce decree mandates that one individual must pay off the joint credit card debt, but that person fails to do it?

Irby: You can always file contempt of court papers against him/her, but in the meantime, your credit score suffers. So I suggest paying off the debt to save your credit. If you can’t afford to pay the debt, at least make minimum payments to keep a positive payment history on your credit report.

Wolf: What about other accounts, such as utilities and cell phones?

Irby: The safest thing to do, if you have a service in your ex’s name, is to turn off the account and reestablish service in your name.

 

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3. Find Money to Pay Down Debt

Another thing we have to do before creating a plan to pay down your existing debt is to find money in your budget each month. To assist in this step, I contacted Erin Huffstetler, Frugal Living Expert.

Wolf: How much money do you think the average person can uncover just by being more intentional about spending and budgeting?

Huffstetler: The average person could easily uncover an extra $250 a month—and probably much more.

Wolf: What are the top 5 areas that you think people should look to first when they’re trying to cut their expenses?

Huffstetler:

  • Food spending (both groceries and eating out)
  • TV-related expenses (cable/satellite services, certainly; but also movie subscriptions and rentals)
  • Phone services (particularly extras like call waiting, caller id, long distance, and cell phones)
  • Insurance premiums
  • Miscellaneous spending (all those small amounts spent on coffee, vending machine snacks, and other indulgences)

Wolf: How can single parents, specifically, stretch their child support dollars and reduce child-related expenses?

Huffstetler: For single parents looking to stretch their child support dollars, creativity is the key. Look to children’s consignment shops and thrift stores to buy your kids’ clothes instead of department stores; sign them up for Parks and Rec-run activities instead of privately-run activities (which will always cost more); and don’t feel like you have to make up for being a single parent by buying them extra things—it’s you they need, not stuff.

 

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4. Pay Off Your Debt

The next step is creating a schedule for paying down your debt:

  1. Pay off the debts that charge you the highest interest first.Bob Hammond, author of Life Without Debt, recommends that you pay off the debts that are charging you the highest interest first since borrowing from those creditors is costing you the most money. “Concentrate on paying off the high-cost debts as soon as possible,” Hammond advises. LaToya Irby, Credit/Debt Management Expert, agrees. “Highest interest rate debts cost the most money, especially when those debts have high balances. So you’ll save money on interest charges when you pay off those high-interest rate debts first.”However, there are exceptions to this general rule. Irby notes, “If you’re likely to get discouraged because it’s taking a long time to pay off that high-interest rate debt, you can start with the lowest balance debt. Getting some small debts paid off will motivate you to keep going.”
  2. Pay more than the minimum payment. Aim for paying more than the suggested minimum payment, in order to pay off your debts as quickly as possible.Miriam Caldwell, Money in Your 20’s Expert, shares this advice:
    • Choose one debt to focus on.
    • Increase your payment on that debt by as much as you can.
    • Once you have paid off that debt, move all that you are paying on it to the next debt you want to pay off.
    • You’ll be surprised at how quickly you can get out of debt with this plan!
  3. Meanwhile, continue to pay the minimum balance due on all of your other debts.Record what you intend to pay toward each debt on the debt chart you made in Step 1.

 

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5. Budget Your Monthly Expenses

Now that you know where you stand financially, and you’ve created a plan for paying down your debts, it’s time to make sure that you’re making any other necessary adjustments so that you can keep up with your plan. And this means creating a budget.

I know this can be intimidating, but I’m going to make a suggestion for you: Sign up for Mint.com. It’s a free financial software program available on the Internet, and it will basically do your budgeting for you. It will create a visual pie chart showing how much you’re spending each month on housing, gas, food, entertainment, and more. This way, if it turns out that you’re spending a lot more on food than you really should, you can begin to make the necessary adjustments to get your spending under control.

If you would prefer to create your budget the traditional way, allotting a certain amount of money to each spending category, I’ve created an online budget calculator you can use, which includes categories for child support and other details specific to your life as a single parent.

Finally, in taking a look at where your money really goes each month, it’s important to know approximately how much money you “should” be spending in each category. Generally speaking, your net spendable income (after taxes) should be allocated as follows*:

  • Housing: 30%
  • Food: 12%
  • Auto: 14%
  • Insurance: 5%
  • Debt: 5%
  • Entertainment: 7%
  • Clothing: 6%
  • Savings: 5%
  • Medical/Dental: 4%
  • Miscellaneous: 7%
  • Child Care: 5%
  • Investments: 5%

 

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6. Set Financial Goals

Now that you’ve worked out a plan to pay down your debt, and you’ve created a budget, it’s time to determine your needs moving forward.

Specifically, as a single parent, you need to ask yourself some questions, such as:

  • Do you need to file for child support?
  • Do you need to get a higher-paying job?
  • Is it time to think about going back to school?
  • Do you need to consider moving into a home/rental that would reduce your overall monthly payments?
  • Are there alternatives, such as taking on another job or splitting expenses with another single parent family, that you need to consider at this point?

One of the things that I want you to know is that the ball is in your court. You determine where this goes from here on out. But unfortunately, you can’t do that if you’re ignoring your financial health, right?

So the fact that you’ve come this far in the process of getting a handle on your finances tells me that you’re determined to make the changes you need to make in order to provide for your family’s future.

So go ahead and ask yourself these questions. So much of single parenting is learning to roll with the punches and be creative in the face of adversity. If, indeed, you need to make some pretty major changes, now is the time to do it. Don’t incur any more debt where you are. Be resourceful, follow through, and do what you need to do to turn your financial situation around.

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7. Increase Your Net Worth

The next step is to determine your net worth and begin adding to it.

Determine Your Net Worth:

Your net worth is what you own minus what you owe. Programs such as Mint.com, Quicken, and Microsoft Money will calculate your net worth for you, automatically.

You can also determine your net worth simply by adding up all that you own, including all of your investments, the equity you may have paid into your home, the value of your car, and any other assets you possess; and subtracting what you owe in remaining debts.

Set Up a Savings Account:

Once you know where you stand, you’ll be ready to set up a savings account. You can do this through your regular bank, or begin investing in a mutual fund that pays interest.

Even if you can only afford to set aside $25 or $50 per month, it will begin to add up.

Before you know it, you’ll have an emergency savings plan in place, to protect you in the event that your car breaks down, or your home needs a major repair.

In addition, this regular savings will help you increase your net worth over time.

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8. Become Even More Frugal

Unfortunately, all of the work you’ve already done in steps 1-7 will have little lasting value if you don’t change your attitude toward money. Now is the time to become even more frugal and learn to live within your means.

Practice Discipline:

Stop imagining that more money is going to pour in tomorrow—through finally collecting on unpaid child support, winning the lottery, or getting a promotion. If those things happen, great! You’ll be even better off. But living as if they’re going to happen is causing you to spend money you don’t have.

Instead, force yourself to make purchases with cash only. Do not continue to pay outrageous interest payments toward credit cards for purchases you don’t absolutely need. You can get by without that new furniture, right? What else could you skip, in the interest of spending only what you have right now in the bank?

Try These Ideas:

  • Check Freecycle before you make another major purchase. Someone else may be giving away the very thing you’d like to buy!
  • When you’re getting ready to buy something specific, look for it on eBay first. I buy a lot of my clothes, new-with-tags, through online auctions!
  • Forget trying to keep up with “The Jones’s.” You already know your value; don’t get caught up trying to “prove” your worth to others by having “just the right” house, car, or appearance.
  • Do not use shopping, ever, to appease your emotions.
  • Finally, when you do go to make a big purchase, step back and give yourself a few days–or even a week–to think about it. There’s no reason to suffer through buyer’s remorse and try to justify to yourself purchases that you really can’t afford. Think it over carefully and make those purchases, when necessary, with cash.

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9. Schedule Your Own Weekly Financial Check-In

Grab your calendar and schedule a weekly financial update meeting with yourself. This is an extremely important step in managing your personal finances, and it’s one that you need to continue each and every week. During your “meeting” time:

  • Pay any bills that are due.
  • If your bank statement has arrived, take the time to balance your checkbook.
  • Check the balances of your checking and savings accounts.
  • Update your debt list to incorporate any recent payments.
  • This is also a good time to write out your grocery shopping list and check what’s on sale at your local grocery store this week (either using the store’s Web site or the sales circular that comes in the newspaper).
  • Finally, also make note of any upcoming expenses you need to anticipate and plan for.

An attitude of gratitude and finances.

 

 

References:
Irby, LaToya. Email interview. 24 Oct. 2008, 
Huffstetler, Erin. Email interview. 24 Oct. 2008. 
Sources:
Caldwell, Miriam. Email interview. 27 Oct. 2008, Hammond, Bob. “Debt Free Key: 10 Steps for Coping With Credit Problems.” Life Without Debt. Franklin Lakes, NJ: Career Press, 1995. 31-32, Irby, LaToya. Email interview. 24 Oct. 2008. 
“Spending Plan Online Calculator.” Crown Financial Ministries. 11 Oct. 2008.

Written By: Jennifer Wolf

Source: thebalance

 

 

 

Weekly Market Recap – 7/3/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: July 3, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Stocks end first half with down week. Nasdaq lost ~2% on tech weakness, Dow -0.2%, S&P 500 Index -0.6%; Russell 2000 ended flat. Market weakness partly attributed to hawkish global central bank comments, which pushed yield on 10-year Treasuries up 15 basis points (0.15% to 2.30%), pressured the dollar. Favorable bank stress test results boosted financials, renewed focus on reflation trade into banks, energy.
  • Oil bounce continued, WTI crude oil +7%, bringing session winning streak to seven and price back above $46/bbl. Friday brought first weekly drop in rig count since January.
  • Strong first half despite recent choppiness. Nasdaq rallied 14%, its best first half since 2009, S&P 500 (+8%) produced its best first half since 2013 (Dow matched S&P’s first half gain).

Overnight & This Morning

  • S&P 500 higher by ~0.3%, following gains in Europe. Quiet session likely with early holiday close (1 p.m. ET).
  • Solid gains in Europe overnight– Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, German DAX 0.6%, France CAC 40 +1.0%. Solid purchasing managers’ survey data (June Markit PMI 57.4).
  • Asian markets closed mostly higher, but with minimal gains.
  • Crude oil up 0.4%, poised for eighth straight gain.
  • Treasuries little changed. 10-year yield at 2.29%. Early bond market close at 2 p.m. ET.
  • Japanese Tankan survey of business conditions suggested Japanese economy may have increased in the second quarter, manufacturing activity is at multi-year highs.
  • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, generally considered more reliable than official Chinese PMI, exceeded expectations with a 50.4 reading in June, up from 49.6 in May.
  • Today’s economic calendar includes key ISM manufacturing index, construction spending.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Several key data points this week, despite the holiday-shortened week. Today brings the important Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), followed by minutes from the June 13-14 Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s employment report. Key overseas data includes services PMI surveys in Europe, China’s manufacturing PMI, and the Japanese Tankan sentiment survey (see below). Market participants will scrutinize this week’s data for clues as to the path of the Fed’s rate hike and balance sheet normalization timetables. Views are diverging again, though not as dramatically as in late 2015/early 2016.

Macro Notes

  • The first six months in the books. It was a solid start to the year, with the S&P 500 up 8.2%, the best start to a year since 2013. Yet, this year is going down in history as one of the least volatile starts to a year ever. For instance, the largest pullback has been only 2.8%–which is the second smallest first-half of the year pullback ever. Also, only four days have closed up or down 1% or more–the last time that happened was in 1972. Today, we will take a closer look at the first half of the year and what it could mean for the second half of the year.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Markit Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • ISM Mfg. (Jun)
  • Construction Spending (May)
  • Italy: Markit Italy Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • France: Markit France Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • UK: Markit UK Mfg. PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (May)
  • Russia: GDP (Q1)
  • Japan: Vehicle Sales (Jun)

Tuesday

  • Happy July 4th Holiday!
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Services PMI (Jun)
  • China: Caixin China Services PMI (Jun)

Wednesday

  • Factory Orders (May)
  • Durable Goods Orders (May)
  • Capital Goods Shipments and Orders (May)
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes for Jun 14
  • Italy: Markit Italy Services PMI (Jun)
  • France: Markit France Services PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Jun)
  • UK: Markit UK Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Retail Sales (May)

Thursday

  • ADP Employment (Jun)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 1)
  • Trade Balance (May)
  • Germany: Factory Orders (May)
  • ECB: Account of the Monetary Policy Meeting
  • Mexico: Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
  • Japan: Labor Cash Earnings (May)

Friday

  • Change in Nonfarm, Private & Mfg. Payrolls (Jun)
  • Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (Jun)
  • Average Weekly Hours (Jun)
  • Labor Force Participation & Underemployment Rates(Jun)
  • Germany: Industrial Production (May)
  • France: Industrial Production (May)
  • Italy: Retail Sales (May)
  • UK: Industrial Production (May)
  • UK: Trade Balance (May)

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Weekly Market Recap – 6/26/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: June 26, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • After closing once again at record levels last Monday, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index battled a wave of sector rotation for the balance of the week, finishing higher by the slightest of margins.
  • It was the 2nd consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500, as increases in healthcare (+3.7%) and technology (+2.3%) offset weakness in the energy (-2.9%), financials (-1.8%), and utilities (-1.8%) sectors.  Positive news on drug development and potential changes to the Affordable Care Act drove healthcare higher, while continued weakness in WTI crude oil ($43.00; -4.0% for the week) pressured the energy sector.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.14%, its second lowest close of 2017, pressuring the U.S. dollar, which edged down -0.2% on Friday.

Overnight & This Morning

  • Asian stocks rose for a third day, led by technology companies.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose +2.0% and equity markets in China and Hong Kong had gains approaching 1.0%. In Japan, The Nikkei managed to climb despite a report from the Bank of International Settlements warning of dollar denominated risk on bank balance sheets.
  • European stocks rebounded from three weeks of losses. German business confidence hit a record in June, but Italy had to bail out two banks totaling $19 billion.
  • Commodities – WTI crude oil rose, trimming its biggest monthly decline in one year. Gold extended its decline to the lowest level in almost six weeks.
  • U.S. stock futures are up slightly as the dollar climbed and Treasury yields jumped after several Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate increases.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Mixed signals. The financial markets are sending mixed signals, trading within a tight range in an extended expansion. The debate now centers on if the U.S. economy can continue to exhibit growth in output and profits (signal from stocks) or it may slip into a recession (signal from Treasuries). Our view is that though the growth rate in manufacturing may have peaked, we expect Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) to remain in expansion territory. While auto sales may be down ~5.0% from last year, the rise in household formation suggests pent up demand remains in the housing market. Finally, with solid employment levels and improving wages, consumption is well-positioned to support growth and any clarity on regulation, infrastructure, and tax plans could provide an additional boost.
  • Brexit. Friday marked the 1st anniversary of the controversial Brexit vote, which called for the U.K. to leave the European Union (EU).  To mark the occasion, the pound sterling rose +0.2% to $1.27, paring its weekly decline, and the FTSE 100 Index fell -0.2% on Friday. While the U.K. is the largest importer of the EU countries, the FTSE 100 is largely comprised of exporters, with 2/3rds of its revenue generated overseas.  This helps explain why the approximately 15.0% drop in the pound sterling was accompanied by a rise of a similar magnitude (+17.0%) in the FTSE 100 over the past year.

Macro Notes

  • Technicals continue to look strong. One of the strongest aspects of this equity bull market has been that the technicals have and continue to support higher prices. This week we take a closer look at the global bull market and why broad participation suggests it still has legs.
  • 41 weeks and counting. The S&P 500 has now gone 41 straight weeks without closing lower by 2% or more, but that’s not even the most surprising point.

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Durable Goods Orders (May)
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Report (May)
  • Cap Goods Shipments and Orders (May)
  • Dallas Fed Mfg. Report (Jun)
  • ECB: Draghi
  • BOE: Carney
  • BOJ: Kuroda

Tuesday

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Richmond Fed Mfg. Report (Jun)
  • Italy: Mfg. & Consumer Confidence

Wednesday

  • Advance Report on Goods Trade Balance (May)
  • Wholesale Inventories (May)
  • Pending Home Sales (May)
  • France: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Money Supply (May)
  • Itally: PPI & CPI (Jun)
  • Bank of Canada: Poloz
  • Japan: Retail Sales (May)

Thursday

  • GDP (Q1)
  • Germany: CPI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • BOJ: Harada
  • Japan: National CPI (May)
  • Japan: Industrial Production (May)
  • China: Mfg. & Non-Mfg. PMI (Jun)

Friday

  • Personal Income (May)
  • Consumer Spending (May)
  • Chicago PMI (May)
  • Core Inflation (May)
  • UK: GDP (Q1)
  • France: CPI (Jun)
  • Germany: Unemployment Change (Jun)
  • Eurozone: CPI (Jun)
  • Canada: GDP (Apr)
  • Japan: Vehicle Production (May)
  • Japan: Housing Starts (May)
  • Japan: Construction Orders (May)

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Weekly Market Recap – 6/19/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: June 19, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Stocks little changed Friday. Intra-market moves were in focus, particularly ~3% difference between energy (+1.7%) and consumer staples (-1.0%)
  • Consumer staples slide. Grocers weighed after Amazon-Whole Foods acquisition proposal announced.
  • European markets rose on news that Greece would receive next tranche of aid, ebbing political risk. MSCI EAFE +1.1% Friday.
  • Treasuries yields down to 2.16% after housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment miss estimates.
  • Mixed week for broad averages. Dow (+0.5%), S&P 500 (+0.1%), Russell 2000 (-1.0%). Industrials (+1.7%) topped sector rankings, technology (-1.1%) fell most.

Overnight & This Morning

  • U.S. following Europe higher on market-friendly outcome French election, which strengthened Macron’s mandate for economic reforms.
  • WTI crude oil ($45.11/bbl.) holding Friday’s gains after -2.4% last week.
  • European markets applaud French election outcome. European Stoxx 600 Index +0.9% midday, led by Paris’ CAC (+1.2%); Brexit talks underway in Brussels.
  • Asian markets also higher. MSCI Asia Pacific Index+0.6%, China up on pending MSCI decision (expected Tuesday) to include country’s shares in its global indexes. Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%.
  • Treasuries down, 10-year yield up slightly to 2.18%

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Our 2017 S&P 500 Index forecast is not a bearish call. Some have raised the question, why own stocks here if the S&P 500 is already at our year-end target return for the year of 6-9%? First, we expect cyclical sectors and smaller cap stocks to fare better than the S&P 500 in the second half; second, we believe dips will provide opportunities for gains; and third, fiscal policy is a wildcard that could potentially push stocks ahead of our forecast.
  • Earnings estimates have stayed resilient. Estimates have held firm over the past month and still reflect near 10% earnings growth over the next 12 months. We expect earnings gains to support stocks in the second half of the year. Policy has the potential to drive additional earnings gains in 2018 that may begin to be priced in during late 2017, offering upside potential to our forecast.

Macro Notes

  • Beware the ides of June? As we’ve noted before, the second half of June tends to see some seasonal equity weakness. Breaking it down further, last week was option expiration for the month of June and the week after this event (this week) has historically been very weak. In fact, going back 14 years this week has been higher only once for the S&P 500, and that was in 2013. Going back to 2000, this week has been higher only three times, making it the least likely week of the year to be higher.

MonitoringWeek_header

Tuesday

  • Germany: PPI (May)
  • BOJ: Minutes of Apr 26-27 Meeting
  • China: Conference Board China LEI (May)

Wednesday

  • Existing Home Sales (May)
  • BOJ: Kuroda & Iwata
  • Japan: All Industry Activity (Apr)
  • Japan: Machine Tool Orders (May)

 Thursday

  • LEI (May)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan Mfg. PMI (Jun)

 Friday

  • Markit Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • New Home Sales (May)
  • France: GDP (Q1)
  • France: Markit France Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • Germany: Markit Germany Mfg. Services PMI (Jun)
  • Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Mfg. & Services PMI (Jun)
  • Russia: GDP (Q1)
  • Canada: CPI (May)

 

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Weekly Market Recap – 6/12/17

 

WMR Title Image

Start the week off right with this one-page snapshot of headlines and market performance. The Weekly Market Recap is provided by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

VIEW HERE

 

 

Market Update: June 12, 2017

MarketUpdate_header

Last Week’s Market Activity

  • Nasdaq tumbled 1.8% Friday, its biggest one-day drop since June 2016. Tech weakness, attributed to crowded investor positioning, outsized 2017 gains, and cautious sell side commentary, powered substantial value outperformance relative to growth. Dow, Russell 2000 gained (0.4%), while S&P 500 ended flat.
  • Energy (+2.5%) led Friday’s market action, followed by financials (+1.9%);both benefited from tech outflows.
  • Treasuries fell modestly, helping banks (10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.20%).
  • Dollar and WTI crude oil up, COMEX gold down.Dollar rise dragged gold down 0.6% to >$1270. Oil gained 0.4% to ~$46/bbl, boosting the energy sector attempted recovery from inventory-driven losses earlier in the week. Copper rose for the third straight session.
  • Muted reaction to U.K. election as pound sold off (which eroded U.K. returns for U.S. investors) but U.K. stocks in local currency generally shrugged off surprise election result.
  • Mixed week. Friday’s rotation was evident in weekly performance with Dow (+0.3%), Russell 2000 (+1.2%) faring well, S&P 500 down slightly (-0.3%), Nasdaq down sharply (-1.6%). Despite the week’s big political stories, broadest equity market averages didn’t move much.

Overnight & This Morning

  • S&P 500 down as Friday’s technology sell-off carries over into morning trading.
  • Technology weakness weighed on Asian markets:Nikkei slipped 0.5%, Shanghai Composite lost 0.6%, Hang Sang fell 1.24%. Spillover into Europe as well. Core European markets down nearly 1% in midday trading.
  • Treasuries unchanged, dollar is lower vs. euro and yen; Gold is little changed.
  • Oil rebound (+1.6%) follows Friday’s gains as the commodity struggles to maintain support in the mid $40s.
  • More European election results. French President Macron’s party set for a big parliamentary majority following Sunday’s first-round vote. Regional Italian elections saw anti-euro 5-Star Movement underperform. In the U.K. we’re watching the formation of political alliances to determine potential Brexit/trade impact.
  • Trump administration’s focus this week to be on apprenticeships, jobs following last week’s infrastructure push.
  • Financial regulation also making headlines as Dodd-Frank revamp accelerates and parts of the DOL’s Fiduciary Rule go into effect. Look for easing of regulatory burden on smaller financial institutions, positive for regional banks.

MacroView_header

Key Insights

  • Reflation rotation? Friday’s sharp moves (technology down and financials, energy and small caps up) appeared to be rotation from areas that have been working to those that haven’t given the broad averages did not move much. Technology was a source of funds for energy, financials, and small cap purchases, areas that tend to benefit from stronger economic growth, higher interest rates and inflation. We still favor the technology sector and, for those currently underweight the sector, we would view further weakness as a potential opportunity to add exposure.
  • We expect a rate hike on Wednesday and will be watching closely for clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate path for the rest of 2017. Market participants will scrutinize the Fed statement and press conference for any changes to economic growth or inflation outlooks, and any additional details regarding balance sheet normalization. We remain on the fence about whether we get another hike in 2017 after the presumed move this week but, regardless, we see modest additional return potential for both stocks and bonds over the balance of the year.
  • Market warning to Fed? The fact that markets are pricing in a flatter trajectory of rate hikes moving forward, and that even relatively short-term two-year Treasury yields are flat compared to levels seen in the aftermath of the Fed’s March meeting, may be the market’s way of warning the Fed that, with inflation expectations broadly contained, being too aggressive with rate hikes in the near term may harm growth.

Macro Notes

  • Big drop for tech. Technology dragged the Nasdaq down 1.8% for its third worst day of the year and its worst week year to date (-1.5%). What made this big drop unique was it came the day after setting a new all-time high. Other than a 2.6% drop in May, you have to go back to March 2000 the last time there was a larger drop from an all-time high for the Nasdaq.
  • When does the June swoon happen? We noted at the start of the month that June has historically been a weak month for equities and over the past 10 years only January has been worse for the S&P 500 Index. Taking a closer look at the monthly performance though shows it is usually the second half of June that tends to see most of the weakness. With the Fed and Bank of Japan on tap for meetings this week, could it be time for some volatility?

MonitoringWeek_header

Monday

  • Monthly Budget Statement (May)
  • Japan: Machine Orders (Apr)

Tuesday

  • PPI (May)
  • UK: CPI & PPI (May)
  • UK: Retail Price Index (May)
  • Germany: ZEW Survey (June)
  • China: Industrial Production

Wednesday

  • CPI (May)
  • Retail Sales (May)
  • FOMC Rate Decision (June 14)
  • Yellen Press Conference
  • Germany: CPI (May)
  • Eurozone: Industrial Production (Apr)
  • UK: Jobless Claims (May)
  • UK: Unemployment Rate (Apr)
  • New Zealand: GDP (Q1)
  • Japan: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Apr)

Thursday

  • Empire State Mfg. Report (June)
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Report (June)
  • Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (May)
  • US Treasury International and Capacity Utilization (May)
  • US Foreign Net Transactions (Apr)
  • BOJ: Policy Balance Rate and 10-Yr Yield Target
  • Bank of England: Bank Rate Decision

Friday

  • Housing Starts (May)
  • Building Permits (May)
  • Eurozone: New Car Registration (May)
  • Eurozone: CPI (May)
  • Russia: GDP (Q1)
  • Bank of Russia: Key Rate Decision
  • China: New Loan Growth and Money Supply (May)

 

 

 

 

Important Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.